RADIO
Back to tight ends, and the target expectations for them going into the 2015 season. Unlike the first five guys examined here in part one, we see that the back end of the top 10 tight end targets are less of a certainty and much more of a crapshoot.
Such is the NFL as there is only so many 6’6’’ monsters who can still coordinate themselves appropriately so that they can succeed against other professional football players. As was the case with the first half of this list, these men are here not just because of their skill levels, but because they were targeted favorites of their quarterbacks last year. That certainly does not mean that the same will happen for them this year. So here we go.
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2015 Fantasy Football Projections - Tight End Targets
Mychal Rivera - TE, Oakland Raiders
2014 Stats: 58 rec, 534 yards, 4 TD, 101 targets
Fittingly we start with the man that is most likely to not even sniff the 2016 version of this column. Everyone associated with Oakland has high hopes for their passing attack going into 2015 (acquiring Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree will do that), and it was evident that as a rookie quarterback Derek Carr used his main tight end as a safety net on a regular basis. Unfortunately, catching only a shade above half of the balls thrown your way does not bode well for a player who isn’t exactly a downfield threat (only 9.6 YPC).
Through three preseason games, Carr has been looking Rivera’s direction and he is moving chains, but that is while rookie Clive Walford (who many beleived to be the best tight end in the draft) nurses a hamstring injury on the sideline. As the former Miami Hurricane begins working his way into the lineup, Rivera will find himself the less athletic and minus blocker within the tight end corps in Oakland. Neither Rivera nor Walford project to be bonafide options as fantasy’s extra receiver, and better options should be considered here.
Target Projections Verdict: 60 targets for vastly underwhelming numbers (breaking 500 yards is nowhere near a given), as Derek Carr turns to Amari Cooper as his main safety valve during the season. Walford begins coming on as the season progresses, and Mychal Rivera quickly becomes a change of pace option for the Raiders.
Antonio Gates - TE, San Diego Chargers
2014 Stats: 69 rec, 821 yards 12 TDs, 99 targets
It became quite evident last year that Antonio Gates was sick of people like Rob Gronkowski and LaDarius Green trying to kick in his door and take things that were rightfully his. And while Gronk might have stolen the “Best Tight End Around” title, Gates made sure that Green was not going to be taking the starting job in San Diego while becoming the second most valuable tight end in the fantasy world last year. He obviously was still worried about the presence of Green this offseason, took some PEDs, and now is serving a four game suspension because of it (though he maintains that he doesn’t know how it happened). Nonetheless, he’s crossing his fingers that Green isn’t going to turn in a career run in those four games to win the job.
This writer doesn’t see that happening. What I do see is much of the same when Gates does return from the suspension. The basketball-player-turned-tight-end has been Philip Rivers go to since he was still childless, and just starting out in the league. That means he isn’t just going to ignore Gates, who is now 35 and probably auditioning for his final long term contract in the NFL. The man will always be deadly in the red zone with those soft hands, and that’ll give him the fantasy value that owners are going to want to see. Taking a flyer on stashing Gates towards the end of the draft (so long as you have a back up plan for four games) isn’t an awful idea, especially if Gates decides to put up numbers like last year.
Target Projections Verdict: 70 targets for just under 800 yards, and 6 or 7 TDs. as Rivers keeps doing what he’s been doing for years by throwing Gates the ball.
Jared Cook - TE, St. Louis Rams
2014 Stats: 59 rec, 634 yards, 3 TDs, 98 targets
Jared Cook has been a great candidate to breakout for years now. Unfortunately, he’s a good candidate year in and year out because he leaves much to be desired as the season goes on. I don’t know how many die hard Jared Cook fans there are out there, but it seems that the “breakout drought” lasts yet another season. The 28 year old is definitely a serviceable tight end, and is the best receiver of the TEs in St. Louis. But considering the money that the Rams shelled out for Lance Kendrick (with some of the terms of the contract being that Kendricks begins seeing his share of targets), and the lack of action for Cook in preseason (just two catches), the prospects are not looking too bright.
Throw in a new quarterback, Nick Foles (who doesn’t necessarily have the same comfort level with Cook as previous quarterbacks, and only threw to tight ends only 65 times last season), and a running and defensive unit that has the potential to be some of the best in the league, and the waters just get murkier. In feux football, Cook will max out as a streaming option that against the right team can get 4 catches, 50 yards and a touchdown, but not one that you’ll feel comfortable trotting out week in and week out.
Target Projections Verdict: 85 targets for 500 yards and a couple touchdowns, but Lance Kendrick proves to be a force to be reckoned with and begins eating away at Cook’s looks.
Larry Donnell - TE, New York Giants
2014 Stats: 63 rec, 623 yards, 6 TDs, 93 targets
Donnell bursted onto the scene early last year with three touchdowns in a Monday Night Game against the Washington Redskins, and many fantasy owners became hopeful that the 6’ 6’’ receiver would become the waiver wire pickup of the year. Instead, Donnell ranked as just the 24th best TE following Week 5, as he struggled with both run blocking and holding onto the ball (a huge no-no for any player in Tom Coughlin’s offense). Though, fantasy owners should be encouraged as the we approach this season.
The Giants have the potential to have a borderline elite offense this season (they’ve got this guy, Odell Beckham Jr., maybe you’ve heard of him), and at the very least, spend plenty of time in the red zone. Pass catchers who are 6’ 6’’ usually shine in the red zone. Throw in the fact that Eli Manning has never shied away from getting his tight ends the ball in 20 yard increments (though the analytics suggest that last year was one of Eli’s worst in throwing to tight ends, expect that to rebound this year), and the season looks pretty bright for Donnell.
His lack of athleticism will keep him out of the top tier, and he may need another year before he’s in the second-to-top tier, but all signs point to Donnell having the potential to be one of the top 10 tight ends in the league this year. Of course the big "if" would be if he doesn’t find a way to stop doing all the things that Tom Coughlin hates, because fantasy owners be damned, when Coughlin puts someone in the doghouse, they usually stay in that doghouse.
Target Projections Verdict: The Giants do turn into an offensive juggernaut, and Donnell sees nearly 100 targets, plenty of them in the red zone and end zone. Odell and Victor Cruz cause enough distraction that Donnell gets 800 yards and is knocking on the door of 10 TDs.
Coby Fleener - TE, Indianapolis Colts
2014 Stats: 51 rec, 774 yards, 8 TDs, 92 targets
Fleener finished as a top six tight end last season, and many believe that the chemistry that started in the Stanford dorm rooms between he and Andrew Luck was going to blossom into huge fantasy numbers on the field this year. Of course, we’re going to have pump the brakes a bit before we dub Fleener a fantasy football gem. Yes, the Colts are going to be the best offense in football, and yes Luck is going to do some jaw dropping things this year. And I even get that Reggie Wayne vacated 116 targets when he wasn’t resigned this offseason. Still I know, and many other football heads know, that Andre Johnson is most likely the biggest benefactor in the absence of Wayne.
In fact, Fleener has to deal with the return of a healthy Dwayne Allen after he missed a few games during last season. When paired together, Fleener and Allen provide the Colts with the best young TE corp in football, but Andy Luck is going to have to do his part in keeping both of them happy. The fact that Fleener was among league leaders in yards-per-deep-drops last season (16.7 yards on 5 deep drops) will not do him any help either, especially considering his size and speed should make him a top notch deep threat. Fleener will produce this year, but it is doubtful he’ll reach last year’s totals so long as Allen stays healthy.
Target Projections Verdict: 78 targets and 650 yards, as Andrew Luck looks to spread the ball around more. If you are fortunate enough to catch any game in action, you’ll spend the entire time screaming at Luck to not throw to Allen, and all your friends will look at you like a crazy psychopath.
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