The San Francisco 49ers upgraded their pitiful receiving corps this offseason, but they did not exactly land the next Jerry Rice. Pierre Garcon signed a five-year, $47.5 million deal with the San Francisco 49ers last month, a contract that had many like myself wondering if this was going to be a colossal fiasco like the 49ers’ signing of Torrey Smith two years ago was. All Smith gave San Fran was 53 receptions and a bank account to deposit their millions before he was cut after the season ended.
Garcon will be 31 years old when the season starts, not exactly the age when receivers are in their prime. More likely, this is the age when the wheels come off quicker than if a mechanic forgot to put the lugnuts back on. He has never scored more than six touchdowns in a season, has amassed 1,000 receiving yards only twice in nine years and has only caught more than 80 passes in a season once. Garcon doesn't appear to be the savior of a passing attack that ranked dead last in the NFL in 2016 and looks to have Bryan Hoyer as its starting QB.
Garcon is a solid veteran receiver coming off a 1,000-yard year, though, and reunites with Kyle Shanahan, who was the OC in Washington during his most productive season. Here is a look at how his fantasy value and the values of others will be affected due to his signing with San Francisco.
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Pierre Garcon's Impact in San Francisco
Garcon shared the No. 1 receiver duties with DeSean Jackson during his tenure with Washington, and he had to split targets with tight end Jordan Reed, too. There is no receiver of Jackson’s caliber or tight end of Reed’s caliber on the 49ers roster. Garcon is the top pass catcher on the team, no doubt. That's one point in the plus column.
Garcon and San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan have some history together. A very good history, in fact. Garcon caught a career-high 113 passes while Shanahan was coordinating the offense for Washington back in 2013. Garcon has never caught 80 passes in any other season, let alone anything in the triple digits, so Shanahan clearly knew how to get Garcon the ball. Garcon averaged 110 targets per season over the last three years with Washington. I would expect between Shanahan being the head coach and the lack of other decent receivers around him that Garcon should see 120-140 targets in 2017. Another point in his plus column.
San Francisco is currently sporting the twosome of Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley at quarterback. That duo is not as dynamic as Joe Montana and Steve Young, Batman and Robin, and not even Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. Garcon has spent his career being thrown to by Peyton Manning and Kirk Cousins much of the time. Hoyer and Barkley will not exactly help him pad his stats. One point in the minus column.
Garcon could have signed with 31 other teams that would have been better for his passing numbers than San Francisco. While picking the worst passing offense to sign with probably landed him more money because the 49ers were so desperate for some receiver talent, signing with a team whose offense normally revolves around handing the ball to Carlos Hyde does not sound like the best way to have a 1,300-yard, 10-TD season. Another minus.
Receptions and yardage should not be a problem for Garcon, at least not this upcoming season. I could see him finishing with 85 receptions for 1,100 yards despite having mediocre journeymen quarterbacks passing to him, simply because of the volume of passes he will see. Unless the 49ers draft a big/tall receiver, Garcon might see an uptick of targets around the red zone and has a chance to break his career-high for touchdowns. The pluses seem to outweigh the minuses.
Garcon is not going to make fantasy owners think twice about taking Antonio Brown or A.J. Green and opt for him instead, but drafting him in the middle rounds with the hopes of him being a No. 3 WR on a fantasy roster and having one of his better seasons is imaginable. Just do not plan on holding onto him long-term in a keeper or dynasty leagues, because who knows when his wheels will come off or at least slow down.
How Will This Affect Other Players?
San Francisco also signed former Buffalo Bills receiver Marquise Goodwin this offseason. Goodwin, a former Olympian long jumper with track star speed, is a threat when he touches the ball, but he has rarely done so during his NFL career. He has caught 49 passes over his four years in the league. Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown can catch 49 passes in a month. Goodwin should remain a deep threat only.
Garcon’s work as the top target and underneath threat should open some space downfield for Goodwin, though. Goodwin could set career-highs in receptions and yards (think 45 and 700, respectively), but his fantasy worth will be limited.
Jeremy Kerley became the de facto No. 1 receiver for the 49ers last season when free-agent bust Torrey Smith suffered a season-ending injury. He finished with 64 receptions for 667 yards (on 115 targets) and teamed with tight end Vance McDonald to give the Gabbert/Kaepernick faction two decent pass catchers to throw to.
Kerley will stay in the slot, so he should be unaffected by Garcon’s arrival since Garcon should stay on the outside. If Hoyer and/or Barkley can throw passes with less wobble and more accuracy than Gabbert and Kaepernick did last year, Kerley could be a decent late-round get in deep PPR leagues.
Terrelle Pryor benefits in Washington from Garcon and DeSean Jackson taking their talents to other teams. Now he becomes Kirk Cousins’ No. 1 wideout unless lilliputian Jamison Crowder takes a large step up in the production department or former first rounder Josh Doctson actually stays healthy and becomes the top target the Redskins thought he would be when they drafted him. Pryor was able to break the 1,000-yard barrier last season with a stable of unstable quarterbacks throwing to him in Cleveland. He should definitely be a fantasy force in Washington with Cousins as his QB.
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