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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Some metrics are more intricate than others, but that doesn't mean that they all can't be useful. This week, I will take a look at a straightforward yet insightful stat: HR/FB%.
HR/FB% is as it sounds; it is the percentage of fly balls a pitcher allows that end up being home runs. As I have mentioned in previous articles, pitchers can succeed while allowing contact in the air. However, allowing fly balls increases the risk of damaging contact, including HR. Some pitchers are better at avoiding damaging fly-ball contact than others, and HR/FB% gets at that.
We are nearing the halfway point of the season, so we have plenty of data to analyze. Fantasy managers have a good idea of where their teams stand and what they may need to bolster them, so it is important to start honing in on trade candidates. So with no time to waste, let's find some HR/FB% Studs and Duds!
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HR/FB% Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 19, 2022.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
7-2, 2.22 ERA, 6.3% HR/FB%
Logan Gilbert has been on fantasy managers' radars for some time as a higher-end prospect, and he seems to be meeting expectations this season. The 25-year-old has posted a strong 2.22 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 24.6% strikeout rate over his first 13 starts this season. Further, he has done a great job avoiding damaging contact with a 6.3% HR/FB%. How has Gilbert found his success, and can fantasy managers expect it to continue?
Oddly, I would not expect such a low HR/FB% for a pitcher like Gilbert given his batted-ball profile. Both his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the bottom six percent of baseball and his launch angle currently sits at a lackluster 14.9 degrees. His 3.72 SIERA reflects that his expected results are a good deal worse than his current ERA. The good thing is that he doesn't allow a ton of contact in the air with a 38.8% FB% and benefits from a pitcher-friendly home park.
Gilbert has certainly gotten good results to this point and has avoided HR, but signs point to him having gotten lucky. He has allowed hard contact in the air, and while he hasn't allowed a ton of fly balls I would expect more of them to turn into HR with his batted-ball profile. As such, I consider Gilbert to be a sell-high candidate as the first half of the season is wrapping up.
Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
8-0, 1.42 ERA, 6.6% HR/FB%
I have been a fan of Tony Gonsolin for some time now, and he is finally getting the opportunity for a full-time job in the starting rotation. He has made the most of it, compiling a stellar 1.42 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate in his first 12 starts. Part of his success can be attributed to his low 6.6% HR/FB%. Can fantasy managers expect the 28-year-old to continue to be a bright spot?
Gonsolin has shown the signs of a potential fantasy contributor throughout his career, but now he has been able to showcase them in full. His entire Statcast profile is above-average, including his exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His 14.8-degree launch angle isn't great, but he hasn't allowed a ton of contact in the air with a 38.9% FB% and the lack of hard contact has limited the damaging fly-ball contact.
Gonsolin has been a huge fantasy asset this season. He has kept his walks in check, generated strikeouts, and avoided damaging contact. His 3.73 SIERA suggests he has outperformed himself, but I believe in his strong batted-ball profile. He could certainly be considered a sell-high candidate, but I would want to receive a strong return in order to part with him and would be happy to hold onto him as well.
HR/FB% Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 19, 2022.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
3-7, 5.26 ERA, 18.7% HR/FB%
Hunter Greene is another one of fantasy's more exciting young pitchers, and rightly so with his 95.8-MPH fastball. He hasn't quite lived up to the hype, compiling a 5.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 30.1% strikeout rate with a high 18.7% HR/FB%. He is currently 59 percent rostered and presents a mixed bag, so what should fantasy managers make of him as we start wrapping up the first half of the season?
Greene has relied on two pitches, his fastball at 50.6% and his slider at 43.8% usage. His strikeout potential is obvious, as he has a 30.1% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate. However, the limitations of his two-pitch mix are also clear in his batted-ball profile, despite his velocity. His hard-hit rate is in the 71st percentile, but his exit velocity is in the 35th percentile and his average launch angle is a poor 23.9 degrees. Combine this with the fact that he has allowed a league-high 54.8% FB% and it makes sense that his HR/FB% is poor.
Greene has shown the strikeout skills that fantasy managers were banking on, but he has also shown that he may not be ready to pitch effectively in the big leagues. His strikeout rate has bolstered his 3.59 SIERA, but his two-pitch mix and high velocity have actually been to Greene's detriment. He has allowed a lot of hard contact with a high launch angle, setting himself up for damaging contact. Greene is just 22-years-old, so he has plenty of time to learn how to incorporate his changeup more and keep the ball down in the zone. However, I wouldn't count on him being able to figure it out within this season. As such, I don't think Greene's strikeouts are enough to make him a solid fantasy contributor at this time.
Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers
6-2, 3.57 ERA, 17.1% HR/FB%
I wrote about Eric Lauer in Week 7 as a SIERA Stud. At that time, I was impressed by his decreased walk rate and increased strikeout rate, despite a slightly below-average batted-ball profile. Since then, everything has regressed back for him. He still has a good 3.57 ERA and 25.3% strikeout rate, but his 17.1% HR/FB% is in the top 10 highest among qualified starters. What should fantasy managers expect from Lauer for the second half of the season?
There were supporting underlying stats for Lauer's success at the time, but things have gone south since I wrote that article. His walk rate has spiked to 11.6% and his strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.9% to go with a 5.81 ERA in his five starts since. Further, his overall Statcast profile has fallen in line with his career numbers. Like Greene, Lauer has allowed hard contact in the air (16.9-degree launch angle) frequently with a 44.8% FB%. To bring it all home, Lauer's overall 3.37 SIERA is still decent but is much higher than his value of 2.47 from Week 7.
Overall, I don't think there is a ton of conclusion to draw for Lauer. He has pitched poorly of late following a strong start to the season, but his overall numbers appear more or less in line with his career numbers (or at least with last season). Fantasy managers got more than they expected to start the season, and now they are experiencing Lauer's regression. I would treat Lauer as a fantasy-relevant pitcher in decent to favorable matchups, although I would prefer to keep him on the bench until he shows some signs of turning things around.
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