RADIO
Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Dez Bryant, Melvin Gordon, Matt Forte. Those are just a few of the names who crushed the souls of fantasy owners this past Sunday in Week 14. Whether it was performance, turnovers, or injury, all of those players ran into poorly timed roadblocks in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs. You know what else all of them have in common? None of them will be appearing on this week's Warning Signals.
I point to those players for the simple reason of reminding everyone that you can only do so much to put yourself in position to win. No one would have had the intestinal fortitude to bench any of them. Don't kick yourself over what no logically minded individual would have expected. Instead, worry about what you can actually control and that's figuring out what to do about players who are on the border of being worthy of a start. You're still starting your studs, don't overthink yourself into a loss. That brings us to Warning Signals, where the theme in the fantasy playoffs is identifying players who could win or lose you an elimination game. All the players listed here fall directly into that category.
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Heed the Warning Signs
Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower - (RBs, NO)
Right off the bat here we have a running back tandem rather than the traditional solo player. The reason for lumping them together is simple; it's been hard to identify which one would end up with more touches on a week-to-week basis. Now, it's looking like that doesn't really matter. Neither player has produced over the last two weeks so it's fair to question their status as fantasy assets.
In the case of Mark Ingram, he's been playing through some injuries as of late, so I'm sure that's hindering his performance. As for Hightower, he simply hasn't been able to do much with whatever number of touches he's seen. Unless one of these two RBs were to be ruled out, I think it's time to consider avoiding this situation at all costs. Even if you were to compare it to other timeshares in the NFL, at least one of the two (or three) backs manages to put up fantasy numbers. Latavius Murray, for example, has shined as a high-end RB2 despite having to deal with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard and Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman are other prime examples. It's just not happening in New Orleans right now.
Last week I said Doug Martin shouldn't be an automatic start for you and I would take that one step further for the tandem of Ingram and Hightower. You can't start either running back unless you're out of depth at the position. I'm thinking I'd rather use the likes of Frank Gore or Isaiah Crowell over the two Saints backs. At least you know who's getting the touches in Indianapolis and Cleveland. If Ingram and/or Hightower is the best you can do at this point, good luck, but I would advise seeking shelter elsewhere.
Jay Ajayi - (RB, MIA)
Our second running back situation lies in Miami where Jay Ajayi has come back down to Earth. After some monster games earlier this year, Ajayi has seen his yardage numbers dip considerably. Still, it's not like he's been bad by any means. It just so happens that 61 yards on 12 carries and 48 yards on 20 carries (with a fumble) aren't going to do you much for fantasy.
The last two weeks haven't been great but it's not nearly as bad as some other situations have been. Hell, we just talked about how unreliable the Saints ground attack is. For me, Ajayi is still locked in as a borderline RB1 regardless of matchup. When you take matchup into account for this coming week, keep in mind that Carlos Hyde just shredded the New York Jets. I'm not expecting another 200-yard outing for Jay Ajayi in Week 15 but I do expect him to put up great numbers on a Jets defense that can easily be exploited. Don't fret on Ajayi's recent drop in production.
Doug Baldwin - (WR, SEA)
Amazingly, Doug Baldwin currently sits as fantasy's 14th best wide receiver on the season in standard scoring. You wouldn't really know it based on his sporadic production but facts are facts. Over the last three weeks though, Baldwin has been less than stellar. His PPR numbers have been padded by a surprisingly consistent reception total but his week-to-week yardages haven't been all that great. His high over that span has been just 65 yards. Throw in a small scoring drought and it's fair to question Baldwin's fantasy status heading into Week 15.
The knock on Baldwin has always been that his role in the offense is limited due to Seattle's conservative passing attack. By no means is this an "air it out" offense but Seattle is at least keeping Baldwin more involved than years prior. Again, his PPR numbers prove that. It's just that his upside in standard scoring is limited. He remains a WR3 with some upside in standard. He's only topped 100 yards twice this year despite coming close on a few occasions. And he also has the best shot at a receiving touchdown outside of Jimmy Graham. You can keep using Baldwin during the fantasy playoffs without too much worry.
Stefon Diggs - (WR, MIN)
Our last player to discuss this week is a receiver near and dear to my heart. Stefon Diggs was looking locked in as a WR2 earlier in the year, especially after new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur decided to start peppering him with targets. He can be a PPR beast at times, racking up 13 receptions in back-to-back games in weeks nine and ten. Unfortunately, the most obvious hole in Diggs' game is his lack of finding the end zone. He hasn't scored a touchdown since week eight against the Bears and has just two on the season.
If Doug Baldwin is a high-end WR3 in standard, it's easy to assume that Stefon Diggs is on the lower side of the WR3 spectrum. I'm actually not that convinced. I think his looming matchups against the Colts, Packers, and Bears put him right back into WR2 territory, even in standard. Sure, he does need a consistent reception total to justify using him but that's basically a given at this point. Sam Bradford knows who his weapons are and I think a steady stream of at least eight targets is in play for the last three weeks. I understand the hesitation on using Diggs this far into the fantasy season but I'm willing to double down and lock him into my lineup. That's especially true when Minnesota hosts Indianapolis on Sunday.
Updates From Last Week
Doug Martin - (RB, TB)
Doug Martin had a solid showing in Week 14 against New Orleans, finishing with 13 fantasy points in standard scoring. He managed 66 yards and a score but the most important number to remember is his 25 touches. Even with Charles Sims returning and the looming presence of Jacquizz Rodgers, Martin is back to being the clearcut leader in the backfield. Still, just like I said last week, don't throw the Muscle Hamster into your lineup out of habit. The Buccaneers have a tough matchup ahead of them against the Cowboys so you should still see what you're other options are. Robert Kelley, Jeremy Hill, and Bilal Powell (assuming Matt Forte is out) are all names I'd throw in ahead of Martin.
Cam Newton - (QB, CAR)
Cam Newton didn't really do much to change my tune on his fantasy status. Barring legitimate depth at quarterback, it's extremely difficult to justify benching Cam even in a down season. He was disappointing once again against the Chargers but a nice matchup with Washington is on deck. This isn't the time nor the place to be benching Cam Newton unless you have an absolute stud waiting on your bench.
Allen Robinson - (WR, JAX)
I might not have hit on all five of them but literally every single receiver I mentioned while discussing Allen Robinson last week had a better game than he did. Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel, Steve Smith, Rishard Matthews, and Kenny Britt all outscored him in Week 14. Robinson had precisely one catch for 17 yards. The party is way, way, over. Queue "Closing Time" by Semisonic. You can't be starting Allen Robinson in the fantasy playoffs. Find someone, anyone, who has shown you more production this season.
Martellus Bennett - (TE, NE)
Martellus Bennett had an excellent bounce back game against the Ravens on Monday night, ending the week as a top-three tight end in all formats. Nothing else to say about Bennett from this point forward. He's locked in as a mid-level TE1 for these last few weeks of the NFL season.
