What Are the Chances of Back-To-Back Top-12 Finishes? (Part Two)

In this two-part series, I'm taking a look at fantasy data (PPR format) from 2000 to 2019 in order to see how often it is for football players to finish two consecutive seasons inside the top tiers of fantasy leagues, and if they're actually worth paying the high prices they have attached to them.

Part one introduced the relevant data points and explained the methodology behind this research.

Now, let's evaluate each position in order to determine which players are most likely to repeat a top-12 finish in 2020.

Historical Year-to-Year Fantasy Outcomes - Quarterbacks

If you read the first part of this two-part series, you already know how hard it is to draft a player and have him repeat as a top-12 player in consecutive seasons. Not all players play in the same position, though, so it makes sense to break the data down by position and see what are the chances at each of them. Let's start at quarterback.

While quarterbacks are the third-most prone position to have back-to-back top-12 seasons, that is not the case more often than not. In the past 20 years, only 7 of 51 (14%) quarterbacks have improved in total PPR points while ranking inside the top-12 in year X, and only 16 of 51 (31%) repeated as top-12 players on two consecutive years.

Historical Year-to-Year Fantasy Outcomes - Running Backs

Of the 77 running backs that finished as top-12 players and then went on to play at least 10 games the next season, only 20 of 77 (26%) improved their PPR tallies, and up to 32 of them (42%) retained their top-12 status.

Considering we're looking at 19 years of data, that means that almost two running backs per year (1.7) should be expected to repeat as a top-12 player from one season to the next one, although that's not a lock given the 42% hit rate.

Historical Year-to-Year Fantasy Outcomes - Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

There's not a lot to say about tight ends. Rob Gronkowski is the only TE to finish as a top-12 player overall and he dropped to the 64th-best player the next season, so your chances at drafting a top-12 tight end are minimal and the chance at having him put on back-to-back top-12 seasons just don't exist.

As far as wide receivers go, of the 70 players that meet our criteria, only 13 of the 70 (19%) improved their PPR outcomes from one year to the next one, while 23 of 70 (33%) retained their top-12 status on consecutive seasons. Expect at least one receiver to hit the top-12 from one season to the next one almost every year.

What Made The Back-To-Back Hits Possible?

I have isolated the players who were able to finish two consecutive years inside the top-12 overall. Of the whole group of 9,866 data points, only 71 achieved the feat for a back-to-back hit rate of... 0.007%. Pretty encouraging, isn't it?

While both wide receivers and quarterbacks regressed a bit in year X+1 compared to their top-12 rank in year X, running backs actually improved with an R-squared value of 0.22. Given the super tight space we're exploring (only 12 spots), the variation shouldn't be taken as gospel, and in fact the R-squared values for WRs and QBs aren't relevant at all at just 0.006 and 0.03 respectively.

Using Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE; those that a player should have scored given the play situation, down, yards to go, etc.), we can try to get to unveil the reasons behind back-to-back top-12 seasons.

Here are all players to have a top-12 season in Year X and then proceed to have another top-12 season the next year. The color represents the difference between the FPOE scored by a player in one year compared to the next one, with green shades meaning the player scored more FPOE (meaning he was more efficient) in year X+1.

This paints a good picture of how those back-to-back hit seasons happened. Of the players that achieved the feat, only four of them (6%) ranked as top-12 players with a negative FPOE in one of those two seasons, and none with negative marks on both years.

Only 30 of 71 players (42%) raised their FPOE (that is, were more efficient) on year X+1 than in year X. Keep in mind they were already beasts in year X, so the chances of that happening two consecutive years are minimal at best.

Only one player of the 71 (RB Curtis Martin) was able to have back-to-back top-12 seasons while having a negative efficiency mark in year X (2000; he ranked 11th OVR). He went on to finish OVR10 in the following year, that time with a positive 20.5-FPOE mark.

Finally, on the other side of things, three more rushers finished their back-to-back year (X+1) with negative efficiency (although two of them barely).

2020 Back-To-Back Top-12 Candidates

Looking forward to the 2020 season and its potential top-12 scorers, here are the players with chances at a repeat (those who finished 12th or better in 2019 PPR-format leagues):

There are a few players in there than will have a hard time repeating as top-12 players if only because of how the offseason has developed:

• Deshaun Watson won't have DeAndre Hopkins as his no. 1 wide receiver in Houston come 2020. Hopkins finished as the WR5 and OVR22 player in 2019 scoring 268.5 PPR points. Of Watson's 321.0 PPR points, 144.5 came via Hopkins' receiving yardage and touchdowns. Watson has the ability to rack up points by himself, sure, but it's going to be hard for him to reach those heights again.
• Jameis Winston has gone from a surefire starter in Tampa Bay to a backup in New Orleans. Barring a super-early Drew Brees injury, he won't have a chance at a top-12 finish.
• Derrick Henry was a borderline top-12 player even having one of the best rushing seasons ever. Henry's 2019 ranks 20th all-time in ruPPR (points via rushing yards and rushing TDs). Of Henry's total 294.6 PPR, 244.0 came on the ground. Hard to see him having another historical season next year. He'd most probably need to score 16+ TDs once more, and that has happened just 22 times in the last 20 seasons. Of those 22 player-seasons, only four running backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, and Shaun Alexander) got to score 16+ TDs more than once.

About the rest of the players:

• Lamar Jackson was impossibly efficient racking up 137.2 FPOE in 2019. Even if he regresses a little bit, he would still have a chance to finish as a top-12 player, and his chances are boosted as he plays the high-scoring QB position.
• Dalvin Cook finished inside the top-12 in just 14 games. That bodes well for him, even more considering his efficiency wasn't over the board with just 51.8 FPOE in 2019. Another candidate to repeat, even more playing in run-heavy Minnesota as the Vikings have lost WR Stefon Diggs too.
• Christian McCaffrey (471.2 PPR) had the second-best fantasy season of all time, only behind LaDainian Tomlinson's 2006 (481.1). He needed to reach 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving to do so, becoming the first player in history to log those marks and only the second one with a 900/900 line after Charlie Garner in 2002. Even if he regresses a bit (again, he had the second-best fantasy season of all-time), there is still a good chance he can hit a top-12 spot in 2020.
• Other than Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott (84.0) finished with the highest FPOE mark of the top-12 players followed by Russell Wilson (78.4). Prescott had never had a season of more than 30 FPOE except as a rookie, so he shouldn't be that efficient in 2020. Russell Willson averages around 80 FPOE per season, which should make him a contender for a back-to-back top-12 finish.
• Speaking of Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott will find himself in a clogged offense in 2020 that will feature three pretty good wideouts. We'll see how he's used, but he wasn't overly efficient in 2019 (32.6 FPOE, second-fewest in the top-12) so if he can maintain his touches up and perform at the same level he might make the cut once more. In the past five seasons, the average top-10-to-12 scorer has averaged 305.5 PPR, so he'd get in with a similar year, and only his 12 rushing TDs were a little high on his season stat line.
• Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones are playing with a lesser quarterback in 2020 (Ekeler) or stuck in a RBBC/contract year (Jones). The former came out of nowhere last season and took advantage of Melvin Gordon's absence during a few weeks at the start of the year. As for Jones, his season could go two ways: either Green Bay runs him to death knowing he'll leave next summer, or he gets fewer touches because he's no part of the Packers future. Anyways, Jones' touchdowns (16) are probably going down (read Derrick Henry's blurb) and that is what helped him reach the top-12 in 2019.
• Finally, Michael Thomas is another solid repeat candidate. While he had an all-time season (sixth-highest PPR total since 2000 by a WR), he is so dominant and there is no reason to think he can't ready 300+ PPR once more. Brees is still quarterbacking, Thomas will still be the clear-cut no. 1 option, and he is skilled enough to beat any defense by himself.

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