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Welcome to RotoBaller's Tiered Rankings for the first race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. For those that are viewing these rankings for the first time, here is how the sheet works.
There are two sets of DFS tiered rankings featured below, with one set of rankings focused on DraftKings DFS contests while the other is focused on FanDuel. Every driver that will officially be starting in this week's race will be listed in a particular tier based on their salary for each site. The tiers feature drivers that have similar price ranges and are ranked based on their final outlook, which is determined by a combination of a driver's expected performance for this week's race as well as their salary.
These ranks will help you make tough lineup calls, telling you which drivers must be started over others in each tier. DFS players from any skill levels can use these rankings in order to create a DFS lineup that will cash out.
Every year, the Daytona 500 is one of the most unpredictable races in the Cup Series. This is due to pack racing at Daytona, which allows drivers to run at equal speeds and gives almost all drivers a fair chance to win the race. The probability of a large crash taking out most of the field also is greater at Daytona in comparison to most other tracks, so just picking drivers that will survive until the end of the race is crucial. Past results at Daytona as well as this week's Bluegreen Vacation Duel races provide an indication of which drivers stand out and should be in DFS lineups for this weekend's Daytona 500. Good luck RotoBallers!
Premium Tiered Rankings - NASCAR DFS
Normally, you can expect these rankings to be published on Thursdays or Fridays for every week that there is a Cup Series race, depending on the schedule of pre-race events. These rankings will also be updated as pre-race events progress throughout the week and also will include analysis of each tier of drivers at the conclusion of all pre-race events.
* = This driver will be starting from the rear in this week's race
DraftKings Rankings Analysis
DraftKings Tier 1: Some of the favorites to win the Daytona 500 this week are in this tier, including three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has led the most laps of all drivers since 2018 at Daytona (145), is going for his third consecutive Daytona 500 win, and starts the furthest back of all drivers in this tier (25th). Ryan Blaney also is a strong option to anchor lineups and has the best Driver Rating (90.5), Average Running Position (13.2), and Laps in the Top 15 (754) of all drivers in this tier since 2018. Blaney starts 14th, making him a riskier pick based on place differential than Hamlin, the top pick of this tier, who starts 25th. Brad Keselowski is a solid lineup choice considering his starting position of 24th and his history of success at superspeedway tracks must not be ignored. The driver of the No. 2 Ford still leads all active drivers in superspeedway victories (6) and led laps in three of four races at the track type last season. However, because Keselowski will be going to a backup car and scored mixed finishing results in recent Daytona races, he cannot be recommended as highly as Hamlin and Blaney, who displayed more consistency at the site. Chase Elliott is the least recommended driver to start out of this tier and only had one top-10 finish in his entire career at Daytona (second in August 2020). Elliott has the highest starting position (12th) and ranks higher than all drivers except Logano in this tier in Quality Passes (913).
DraftKings Tier 2: This tier of drivers includes some of the best in the field that must be highly considered for all lineups for Daytona. Martin Truex Jr and Joey Logano are the Top 2 drivers to start out of this tier based on their history and equipment at Superspeedway tracks. Truex has led laps in each of the last three superspeedway Cup Series events, finished fourth in his last Daytona race, and his starting position is the furthest back in the field of all drivers in this tier (26th) this week. Look for Truex to deliver plenty of place differential points and to easily compete for a finish in the Top 5 because of his Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, He will run well despite a radiator change that will have him starting from the rear of the field. Logano is one of the favorites to win this week’s Daytona 500 and he has led laps in every superspeedway race since 2019. The driver of the No. 22 Ford also leads all active drivers in Driver Rating (91.2) and Laps in the Top 15 (804) since 2018. Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are both former Daytona winners who performed well in the Bluegreen Vacation Duels and start in the Top 10 like Joey Logano. Harvick has finished consistently better than Kyle Busch in recent superspeedway races, including two top-10 finishes last season. Since 2005, Busch ranks better than all other drivers in this group in Laps in the Top 15 (3,551) and Driver Rating (91.1) at Daytona. Alex Bowman is the riskiest driver to pick in the entire Cup Series field since he starts in the pole position and cannot score positive place differential. No driver has won the Daytona 500 from the pole position since Dale Jarrett accomplished the feat in 2000. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has two career top-10 finishes at Daytona but also failed to provide positive place differential in every race at the site since he joined Hendrick Motorsports in 2018.
DraftKings Tier 3: Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, and Austin Dillon are the drivers that DFS players must consider placing into lineups from this tier. Busch starts the furthest back in the field of all drivers from this tier (20th) and historically has finished well at Daytona, including a win in 2017. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet also has led laps in three of his last six Daytona appearances and finished ninth in his Bluegreen Vacations Duel race earlier this week. Almirola dominated his Duel race earlier this week, led the most laps there (52), and has seven finishes of 11th or better in all superspeedway races since 2018. Even though the driver of No. 10 starts third, making him a risk for place differential, his Duel performance and equipment indicates that he will lead laps and compete for the win, making him one of the best drivers to lock in this week. Dillon is a former Daytona 500 winner starting fourth, and he won his Duel race earlier this week. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet also leads all drivers in this tier in Average Running Position (17.3) since 2018 at Daytona. Look for Dillon to compete for a finish in the Top 5 based on history, equipment, and his Bluegreen Vacation Duel performance.
DraftKings Tier 4: There are several drivers that must be worth consideration from the largest tier of the week for DraftKings lineups. The top-5 drivers from this tier (Erik Jones, Tyler Reddick, Matt DiBenedetto, Chris Buescher, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.) all start in the back half of the pack this week and will be strong plays for place differential. Jones scored two top-5 finishes last year at superspeedway events and is a former Daytona winner. Reddick led laps in each of the last three Cup Series superspeedway races and notched his first top-10 finish in his last start at the track type. DiBenedetto had positive place differential in eight different races in his career at Daytona and had three finishes of 12th or better in his last five starts at the site. Buescher is one of the most consistent drivers at superspeedways in recent years, with three top-10 finishes last season at the track type, and he had five top-10 finishes in his last seven Daytona starts. Stenhouse has led laps in five of the last six races at Daytona and registered his only two career Cup Series victories at superspeedways, where he also has a better overall Average Finishing Position than all other track types (16.4). Ryan Newman and Bubba Wallace are riskier picks from this tier, starting seventh and sixth, respectively, but both were in contention to win the Bluegreen Vacation Duels earlier this week and are notable for their strong finishes at superspeedways. Newman is one of only two drivers in the field to have eight top-10 finishes at all superspeedways since 2018. Wallace placed fifth in his last race at Daytona and has the best equipment yet of his Cup Series career with 23XI Racing. Ross Chastain is another driver from this tier worth considering since he also starts close to the rear of the field in 34th, making him one of the safest picks here in his first start with Chip Ganassi Racing at Daytona. Christopher Bell performed well and was the runner-up finisher in his Duel race, but still has never finished better than 13th in a superspeedway race. Bell’s high starting position (fifth) gives him a good chance of losing place differential, and his history at superspeedways makes him a hard driver to recommend this week. The last two drivers in this tier, Cole Custer and Chase Briscoe, also are not ideal picks for Daytona despite starting in the back half of the field. Custer’s best finish in four superspeedway events is 22nd, while Briscoe is making his Cup Series debut after finishing with negative place differential in his Duel race.
DraftKings Tier 5: Austin Cindric and Kaz Grala are the best bargain values in this field as well as the safest picks in this week’s Cup Series group here. Both drivers are making their first Cup Series start at Daytona, start in the last two positions(39th and 40th), and have recorded multiple top-10 finishes in the Xfinity Series. The next three drivers in this tier (David Ragan, Jamie McMurray, and Michael McDowell) are all great value picks for Daytona as well based on their history. Ragan is an accomplished superspeedway racer with two career Cup Series victories and had a top-10 finish in his Duel race earlier this week. Two of McMurray’s seven career Cup Series victories were at Daytona, and he recorded both positive place differential and a top-10 finish in his Duel race. McDowell is historically proficient at superspeedway races and had top-20 finishes with positive place differential in four of his last five starts at the track type. Anthony Alfredo is the only remaining driver in this tier to consider. Alfredo is making his Cup Series debut at Daytona and will start 36th, making him one of the safer plays in this field. The driver of the No. 38 Ford has decent equipment as a part of Front Row Motorsports, who picked up solid results previously with Ragan and McDowell. The remaining drivers in this tier start in the front half of the pack, making them easy drivers to fade for this week’s Daytona 500.
DraftKings Tier 6: DFS players should avoid rostering drivers from this tier as much as possible. Most drivers in this group are start and park drivers that will not finish the whole race. Most of the drivers in this group normally display much slower speeds in comparison to the rest of the field and tend to finish multiple laps down. In both Duel races earlier this week, only one driver in this group, Joey Gase, finished on the lead lap. Unless a DFS player picks multiple drivers from the first two tiers and needs the cap flexibility, they most likely will not need to pick any driver from this tier.
FanDuel Rankings Analysis
FanDuel Tier 1: Similarly to DraftKings, Some of the favorites to win the Daytona 500 this week are in this tier, including three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has led the most laps of all drivers since 2018 at Daytona (145), is going for his third consecutive Daytona 500 win, and starts the furthest back of all drivers in this tier (25th). Ryan Blaney also is a strong option to anchor lineups and has the second-best Driver Rating (90.5), Average Running Position (13.2), and Laps in the Top 15 (754) of all drivers in this tier since 2018. Blaney starts 14th, making him a riskier pick based on place differential than Hamlin, the top pick of this tier who starts 25th. Joey Logano is one of the favorites to win this week’s Daytona 500 and led laps in every superspeedway race since 2019. The driver of the No. 22 Ford also leads all active drivers in Driver Rating (91.2) and Laps in the Top 15 (804) since 2018. Logano will start in the highest position of all drivers in this tier (ninth), therefore he is the riskiest play of this group, but his history and equipment indicate that he is one of the top options to start building lineups efficiently. Chase Elliott is the least recommended driver to start out of this tier and only recorded one top-10 finish in his entire career at Daytona (second in August 2020). Elliott has the second-highest starting position of this group (12th) and ranks higher than all drivers except Logano in Quality Passes (913).
FanDuel Tier 2: Just like DraftKings, this tier of drivers includes some of the best drivers in the field that must be considered for all lineups for Daytona. The top two drivers of this group, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, are both former Daytona winners who performed well in the Bluegreen Vacation Duels and start in the Top 10. Harvick has finished consistently better than Busch in recent superspeedway races, including two top-10 finishes last season. Since 2005, Busch ranks better than all other drivers in this group in Laps in the Top 15 (3,551) and Driver Rating (91.1) at Daytona. Brad Keselowski is a solid lineup choice considering his starting position of 24th and his history of success at superspeedway tracks must not be ignored. The driver of the No. 2 Ford still leads all active drivers in superspeedway victories (6) and has led laps in three of four races at the track type last season. However, because Keselowski will be going to a backup car and produced mixed finishing results in recent Daytona races, he cannot be recommended as highly as Harvick and Busch, who displayed more consistency at the site. Alex Bowman is the riskiest driver to pick in the entire Cup Series field since he starts in the pole position and cannot score positive place differential. No driver has won the Daytona 500 from the pole position since Dale Jarrett accomplished the feat in 2000. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has two career top-10 finishes at Daytona, but also failed to register positive place differential in every race at the site since he joined Hendrick Motorsports in 2018.
FanDuel Tier 3: Contrasting from DraftKings, every driver from this tier must be strongly considered for lineups. Martin Truex Jr. is the first driver to start out of this tier based on his history and equipment at superspeedway tracks. Truex has led laps in each of the last three superspeedway Cup Series events, finished fourth in his last Daytona race, and his starting position is the furthest back in the field of all drivers in this tier (26th) this week. Look for Truex to score plenty of place differential and to easily compete for a finish in the Top 5 because of his Joe Gibbs Racing equipment. He will run well despite a radiator change that will have him start from the rear of the field. Busch starts the fourth-furthest back in the field of all drivers from this tier (20th) and historically has finished well at Daytona, including a win in 2017. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet also has led laps in three of his last six Daytona appearances and finished ninth in his Bluegreen Vacations Duel race earlier this week. Aric Almirola dominated his Duel race earlier this week, led the most laps there (52), and has seven finishes of 11th or better in all superspeedway races since 2018. Even though the driver of No. 10 starts third, making him a risk for place differential, his Duel performance and equipment indicates that he will lead laps and compete for the win, making him one of the best drivers to lock in this week. Matt DiBenedetto scored positive place differential in eight different races in his career at Daytona and had three finishes of 12th or better in his last five starts at the site. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has led laps in five of the last six races at Daytona and notched his only two career Cup Series victories at superspeedways, where he also has a better overall Average Finishing Position than all other track types (16.4). Bubba Wallace is one of the riskier picks from this tier, starting sixth, but he was in contention to win his Duel race earlier this week and is notable for his strong finishes at superspeedways. Wallace placed fifth in his last race at Daytona and has the best equipment yet of his Cup Series career with 23XI Racing.
FanDuel Tier 4: Just like on DraftKings, there are several drivers that are worth consideration from the largest tier of the week. The top-3 drivers from this tier (Erik Jones, Tyler Reddick, and Chris Buescher) all start in the back half of the pack and will be strong plays for place differential. Jones had two top-5 finishes last year at superspeedway events and is a former Daytona winner. Reddick led laps in each of the last three Cup Series superspeedway races and earned his first top-10 finish in his last start at the track type. Buescher is one of the most consistent drivers at superspeedways in recent years, with three top-10 finishes last season at the track type with five top-10 finishes in his last seven Daytona starts. Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman are riskier picks from this tier, starting fourth and seventh, respectively, but both had strong results in the Bluegreen Vacation Duels earlier this week and are notable for their strong finishes at superspeedways. Dillon is a former Daytona 500 winner who won his duel race earlier this week and has a better salary on FanDuel in comparison to DraftKings. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet will compete for a finish in the Top 5 based on history, equipment, and his Bluegreen Vacation Duel performance. Newman is one of only two drivers in this field to have eight top-10 finishes at all superspeedways since 2018. Austin Cindric, ranked fifth in this group, is one of the best bargain values in the field. Cindric is making his first Cup Series start at Daytona, starts 39th in this week’s race, and has recorded multiple top-10 finishes in the Xfinity Series. Ross Chastain is another driver from this tier worth considering since he also starts close to the rear of the field in 34th, making him one of the safer value picks in his first start with Chip Ganassi Racing at Daytona. Christopher Bell performed well and was the runner-up finisher in his Duel race, but still has never finished better than 13th in a superspeedway race. Bell’s high starting position (fifth) gives him a good chance of losing place differential, and his history at superspeedways makes him a hard driver to recommend this week. The last two drivers in this tier, Cole Custer and Chase Briscoe, are not ideal picks for Daytona despite starting in the back half of the field. Custer’s best finish in four superspeedway events is 22nd, while Briscoe is making his Cup Series debut after finishing with negative place differential in his Duel race.
FanDuel Tier 5: In a direct parallel to DraftKings, FanDuel’s fifth tier has plenty of strong value picks. Kaz Grala is one of the best bargain values in this week’s Cup Series field. Grala is making his first Cup Series start at Daytona, starts in the last position in this week’s race, and has delivered multiple top-10 finishes in the Xfinity Series. The next three drivers in this tier (David Ragan, Jamie McMurray, and Michael McDowell) are all great value picks for Daytona based on their history. Ragan is an accomplished superspeedway racer with two career Cup Series victories and he had a Top-10 finish in his duel race earlier this week. Two of McMurray’s seven career Cup Series victories were at Daytona and he fashioned both positive place differential and a top-10 finish in his Duel race. McDowell is historically proficient at superspeedway races and he had top-20 finishes with positive place differential in four of his last five starts at the track type. Anthony Alfredo is the only remaining driver in this tier to consider at Daytona. Alfredo is making his Cup Series debut at Daytona and will start 36th, making him one of the safer plays in the field from this group. The driver of the No. 38 Ford has decent equipment as a part of Front Row Motorsports, who picked up solid results previously with Ragan and McDowell. The remaining drivers in this tier start in the front half of the field, making them easy drivers to fade for this week’s Daytona 500.
FanDuel Tier 6: Corey LaJoie is the only driver in this group that has any potential to be a value pick. In 11 starts at Daytona, the driver of the No. 7 Chevrolet has six top-20 finishes, including last year’s Daytona 500, where he finished eighth. LaJoie also earned positive place differentia, with a finish of seventh in his Duel race earlier this week. Regardless of his history and better equipment compared to the rest of this tier of drivers, LaJoie is still one of the riskier options because of his high starting position (16th). DFS players should avoid rostering drivers from this tier as much as possible. Most drivers in this group are start and park drivers that will not finish the whole race. Most of the drivers in this group normally display much slower speeds in comparison to the rest of the field and tend to finish multiple laps down. In both Duel races earlier this week, other than LaJoie, only one driver in this group, Joey Gase, finished on the lead lap. Unless a DFS player picks multiple drivers from the first two tiers and needs the cap flexibility, they most likely will not need to pick any driver from this tier.
