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Welcome to RotoBaller's Tiered Rankings for the fifth race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, the Instacart 500 at Phoenix Raceway. For those that are viewing these rankings for the first time, here is how the sheet works.
There are two sets of DFS tiered rankings featured below, with one set of rankings focused on DraftKings DFS contests while the other is focused on FanDuel. Every driver that will officially be starting in this week's race will be listed in a particular tier based on their salary for each site. The tiers feature drivers that have similar price ranges and are ranked based on their final outlook, which is determined by a combination of a driver's expected performance for this week's race as well as their salary.
These ranks will help you make tough lineup calls, telling you which drivers must be started over others in each tier. DFS players from any skill level can use these rankings in order to create a lineup that will cash out.
As the first race at Phoenix in the 2021 season, this week marks a preview of what to expect for the final championship race taking place at the site later this year. For DFS lineups at Phoenix, fantasy players must aim to include dominators that will lead more laps than everyone else as well as picks with place differential upside. As one of the shorter tracks in the Cup Series, drivers will make more contact with each other in order to advance positions therefore the probability of crashes occurring is higher than most other places at Phoenix. This means that more than most other weeks, diversification of lineups will increase the odds of victory for fantasy players. Good luck RotoBallers!
Premium Tiered Rankings - NASCAR DFS
Normally, you can expect these rankings to be published on Thursdays or Fridays for every week that there is a Cup Series race, depending on the schedule of pre-race events. These rankings will also be updated as pre-race events progress throughout the week when applicable and also will include an analysis of each tier of drivers at the conclusion of all pre-race events.
* = This driver will be starting from the rear in this week's race
DraftKings Rankings Analysis
DraftKings Tier 1: Most of the favorites to win this week at Phoenix are in this tier including nine-time winner Kevin Harvick. Harvick leads all active drivers in laps led (1,662) and has an active streak of 15 top-10 finishes at the Arizona track. Since 2019 at PR, Harvick ranks third in Average Running Position (6.9) and Laps in the Top 15 (1,192), and fourth in Driver Rating (108.1). The driver of the No. 4 Ford has the most Place Differential upside of all drivers in this tier from his starting 18th, making him the best choice here when factoring his history at Phoenix. Chase Elliott is the most recent Phoenix winner and led the most laps in the last two races at the site. Since 2019 at PR, Elliott ranks third in Fastest Laps (129) and fifth in Driver Rating (108.0). Elliott starts sixth and since his team, Hendrick Motorsports, won the last two races this season with other drivers, he is a strong recommendation for a podium finish based on equipment. Team Penske drivers Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski must be highly considered for lineups at Phoenix. Logano is a two-time winner at Phoenix and led 60 or more laps in the last three Cup events at the Arizona course. Since 2019 at PR, Logano is fourth in Fastest Laps (100), second in Average Running Position (5.4) and Driver Rating (115.4), and first in Laps in the Top 15 (1,218). Logano placed in the Top 10 in every race at 1-Mile tracks last season and starts ninth this week. Keselowski was the runner-up in the last race at Phoenix and led multiple laps in the last three races at the track. The driver of the No. 2 Ford also ranks fifth of active drivers at PR in Fastest Laps (87). Expect Keselowski to lead multiple laps early due to starting first this week. Historically, Kyle Busch is one of the more consistent drivers at Phoenix. Busch has three wins, 22 top-10 finishes, and 1,190 Laps led in 31 starts at the Arizona course. Since 2019 at PR, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota ranks second in Laps in the Top 15 (1,218), and first in Fastest Laps (163), Average Running Position (5.3), and Driver Rating (121.5). This week, Busch will start seventh, and based on history and equipment, look for him to finish in the Top 5.
DraftKings Tier 2: Aric Almirola is the top driver to pick from this tier for Phoenix. Almirola offers more PD upside than most in the field since he will start 32nd this week and scored five top-10 finishes in his last seven races at PR. Since 2019 at the Arizona course, Almirola ranks seventh in Laps in the Top 15 (990) and ninth in Average Running Position (11.5). One of the more consistent racers to recommend at Phoenix is Ryan Blaney. In his last four starts at the site, Blaney has three finishes of sixth or better while he earned his first top-5 of the season last week at Las Vegas. The driver of the No.12 Ford starts eighth and will compete for a finish in the Top 5 based on his equipment with Team Penske and recent history at Phoenix.
DraftKings Tier 3: The first two drivers from this tier, Alex Bowman and Matt DiBenedetto, are some of the best DFS picks of the week for Phoenix. In his last seven starts at Phoenix, Bowman has four finishes of 16th or better including a top-10 finish in 2016. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet puts forth decent PD upside from his starting position this week (21st) and has two top-10 finishes this season. DiBenedetto earned his best career finish at Phoenix in his last race (eighth) and gained positive PD six times in his last eight starts at the Arizona track. DiBenedetto starts 20th this week and based on his equipment with Wood Brothers Racing, he will compete for a top-10 finish while procuring a fair amount of PD. William Byron is the last driver to consider using from this tier. In six starts at Phoenix, Byron captured three top-10 finishes while earning positive PD four times. Byron placed in the Top 10 in the last two races this season and will start 10th this week at Phoenix.
DraftKings Tier 4: Several drivers from this tier are solid DFS choices for Phoenix. The first racer of this tier, Cole Custer, has one top-10 finish in two starts at Phoenix. In the Xfinity Series, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver has five top-10 finishes at the Arizona course. Custer starts 24th this week and puts forward a fair amount of PD upside based on his equipment, which will compete for a top-15 finish. Ross Chastain scored positive place differential in all five of his Cup starts at Phoenix and has the best equipment of his career with Chip Ganassi Racing. Chastain will start 22nd and procured two top-20 finishes this season so far. Expect the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet to place in the Top 15 based on equipment and experience at Phoenix. Chastain’s teammate Kurt Busch is one of the best options for Phoenix this week despite low PD upside from starting 12th. In 36 career starts at the site, Busch has 20 top-10 finishes including the last two Spring races in the Cup Series. Since 2019 at PR, Busch ranks fifth in Laps in the Top 15 (1,005) of active drivers. Similar to Custer and Chastain, Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe offer adequate PD upside from their start positions this weekend (25th and 26th). In six starts at Phoenix, Wallace attained three top-20 finishes and racked up positive PD four times. In four starts in the Xfinity Series, Briscoe placed in the Top 10 every time while recording positive PD twice. Both drivers will finish in the Top 20 based on equipment while competing for a top-15 finish. The last driver fantasy players must contemplate from this tier is Ryan Newman. Phoenix is where Newman scored his last Cup Series victory and he has four top-20 finishes with positive PD at the site in his last five starts. Newman will start 19th this week and as one of the most experienced racers with quality equipment, he will finish in the Top 15.
DraftKings Tier 5: The first three drivers from this tier are the only ones fantasy players should consider for lineups this week. Daniel Suarez is a fantastic bargain value with three top-15 finishes in eight starts at Phoenix. Suarez has two finishes of 16th or better this season and presents great PD upside from his starting position (27th). Chris Buescher placed in the Top 20 while obtaining positive PD in each of his last five Phoenix starts. This season, Buescher has three top-20 finishes and will start 17th. Anthony Alfredo is making his first NASCAR start at Phoenix this week and has finished in the Top 25 in the last three races in 2021. Alfredo will start 28th and based on his equipment with Front Row Motorsports, expect him to finish in the Top 25 with a chance of a top-20 finish.
DraftKings Tier 6: Unless cap flexibility is needed from starting multiple drivers in the first two tiers, avoid choosing drivers from this tier as much as possible. Most of the drivers here have inferior equipment compared to the rest of the field and will finish multiple laps down or have technical problems. If you need to start a racer, pick Justin Haley, who has the best equipment here.
FanDuel Rankings Analysis
FanDuel Tier 1: Similarly to DraftKings, Most of the favorites to win this week at Phoenix are in this tier including nine-time winner Kevin Harvick. Harvick leads all active drivers in laps led (1,662) and has an active streak of 15 top-10 finishes at the Arizona track. Since 2019 at PR, Harvick ranks third in Average Running Position (6.9) and Laps in the Top 15 (1,192), and fourth in Driver Rating (108.1). The driver of the No. 4 Ford has the most Place Differential upside of all drivers in this tier from his starting 18th, making him the best choice here when factoring his history at Phoenix. Chase Elliott is the most recent Phoenix winner and led the most laps in the last two races at the site. Since 2019 at PR, Elliott ranks third in Fastest Laps (129) and fifth in Driver Rating (108.0). Elliott starts sixth and since his team, Hendrick Motorsports, won the last two races this season with other drivers, he is a strong recommendation for a podium finish based on equipment. Team Penske drivers Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski must be highly considered for lineups at Phoenix. Logano is a two-time winner at Phoenix and led 60 or more laps in the last three Cup events at the Arizona course. Since 2019 at PR, Logano is fourth in Fastest Laps (100), second in Average Running Position (5.4) and Driver Rating (115.4), and first in Laps in the Top 15 (1,218). Logano placed in the Top 10 in every race at 1-Mile tracks last season and starts ninth this week. Keselowski was the runner-up in the last race at Phoenix and led multiple laps in the last three races at the track. The driver of the No. 2 Ford also ranks fifth of active drivers at PR in Fastest Laps (87). Expect Keselowski to lead multiple laps early due to starting first this week.
FanDuel Tier 2: William Byron is the first driver to consider using from this tier. In six starts at Phoenix, Byron captured three top-10 finishes while earning positive PD four times. Byron placed in the Top 10 in the last two races this season and will start 10th this week at Phoenix. One of the more consistent racers to recommend at Phoenix is Ryan Blaney. In his last four starts at the site, Blaney has three finishes of sixth or better while he earned his first top-5 of the season last week at Las Vegas. The driver of the No.12 Ford starts eighth and will compete for a finish in the Top 5 based on his equipment with Team Penske and recent history at Phoenix. Historically, Kyle Busch is one of the more consistent drivers at Phoenix. Busch has three wins, 22 top-10 finishes, and 1,190 Laps led in 31 starts at the Arizona course. Since 2019 at PR, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota ranks second in Laps in the Top 15 (1,218), and first in Fastest Laps (163), Average Running Position (5.3), and Driver Rating (121.5). This week, Busch will start seventh, and based on history and equipment, look for him to finish in the Top 5.
FanDuel Tier 3: Leading this tier for Phoenix on FanDuel is Aric Almirola. Almirola offers more PD upside than most in the field since he will start 32nd this week and scored five top-10 finishes in his last seven races at PR. Since 2019 at the Arizona course, Almirola ranks seventh in Laps in the Top 15 (990) and ninth in Average Running Position (11.5). Alex Bowman is one of the better picks for this week’s race at PR. In his last seven starts at Phoenix, Bowman has four finishes of 16th or better including a top-10 finish in 2016. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet puts forth decent PD upside from his starting position this week (21st) and has two top-10 finishes this season. Kurt Busch is one of the best options for Phoenix this week despite the low PD upside from starting 12th. In 36 career starts at the site, Busch has 20 top-10 finishes including the last two Spring races in the Cup Series. Since 2019 at PR, Busch ranks fifth in Laps in the Top 15 (1,005) of active drivers.
FanDuel Tier 4: There are a few drivers that are solid lineup choices for Phoenix this week. Matt DiBenedetto earned his best career finish at Phoenix in his last race (eighth) and gained positive PD six times in his last eight starts at the Arizona track. DiBenedetto starts 20th this week and based on his equipment with Wood Brothers Racing, he will compete for a top-10 finish while procuring a fair amount of PD. The second racer of this tier, Cole Custer, has one top-10 finish in two starts at Phoenix. In the Xfinity Series, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver has five top-10 finishes at the Arizona course. Custer starts 24th this week and puts forward a fair amount of PD upside based on his equipment, which will compete for a top-15 finish. Similar to DiBenedetto and Custer, Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe offer adequate PD upside from their start positions this weekend (25th and 26th). In six starts at Phoenix, Wallace attained three top-20 finishes and racked up positive PD four times. In four starts in the Xfinity Series, Briscoe placed in the Top 10 every time while recording positive PD twice. Both drivers will finish in the Top 20 based on equipment while competing for a top-15 finish.
FanDuel Tier 5: There are a few great bargain picks fantasy players must utilize from this tier. Ross Chastain scored positive place differential in all five of his Cup starts at Phoenix and has the best equipment of his career with Chip Ganassi Racing. Chastain will start 22nd and procured two top-20 finishes this season so far. Expect the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet to place in the Top 15 based on equipment and experience at Phoenix. Daniel Suarez is a fantastic bargain value with three top-15 finishes in eight starts at Phoenix. Suarez has two finishes of 16th or better this season and presents great PD upside from his starting position (27th). The third driver fantasy players must contemplate from this tier is Ryan Newman. Phoenix is where Newman scored his last Cup Series victory and he has four top-20 finishes with positive PD at the site in his last five starts. Newman will start 19th this week and as one of the most experienced racers with quality equipment, he will finish in the Top 15. Chris Buescher placed in the Top 20 while obtaining positive PD in each of his last five Phoenix starts. This season, Buescher has three top-20 finishes and will start 17th.
FanDuel Tier 6: Just like DraftKings, fantasy players need to avoid rostering drivers from this tier as much as possible. Most of the drivers in this tier have inferior equipment in comparison to the rest of the field and will finish multiple laps down or have technical issues. If you need the cap flexibility from starting multiple drivers from the first two tiers, pick the first four drivers, who all have better equipment than the other seven here.
