RADIO
Welcome to part three of a new series on fantasy football ADPs. Here, we will take a look at the current state of ADPs and predict which players are going to see their ADPs rise between now and the heart of draft season late August/early September. Please also visit my analysis on running backs and quarterbacks/tight ends when you're finished here.
Understanding where player ADPs are headed can be beneficial in all league formats. A rising ADP naturally corresponds with an increase in overall value. This can provide you with the knowledge regarding what players to buy low on in keeper/dynasty leagues. If you are in a redraft league that drafts early, perhaps before the preseason, you can use this information to really stack your team with assets that you are confident will be more valuable in just a few short weeks after your draft.
If you are in a redraft league that drafts late, it is unfortunate that these ADP spikes will happen before you can capitalize, but it is still helpful in preparing for your draft. When you mock draft in June or July, you can do so knowing the team you are getting is likely much better than the one you will be able to construct in your actual draft. As a result of having this knowledge, you will know not to bank on that great sleeper in the eighth round because you know he will cost at least a seventh-round pick by the time you draft. It prevents you from having unrealistic expectations. Let's look at the WRs that should see their ADPs rise over the summer.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Current ADP: 56, WR23
I believe in Chris Godwin's talent. So does everyone else. Godwin is this year's prime hype candidate. He's splashed big-time ability and has multiple games with big numbers. With DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries gone, Godwin is entrenched as the Bucs WR2 alongside Mike Evans. Even though the breakout is already baked in Godwin's price, he is still on the rise.
There are a handful of WRs ahead of him that I think he can jump: Sammy Watkins and Jarvis Landry being chief among them. But more so than his WR rank jumping, I am confident his ADP is headed into the mid-40s. All it will take is for more positive coachspeak from Bruce Arians and a couple of preseason highlights for everyone's biases about Godwin to be confirmed. Make no mistake about it, I do believe Godwin is taking a huge step forward this season. Unfortunately, you can't benefit from that in fantasy when he is already being drafted at his ceiling. By the time draft day rolls around, I anticipate Godwin being too expensive for my liking.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Current ADP: 105, WR42
This is just ridiculous. There is absolutely no chance Christian Kirk is trending outside the top 36 WRs by draft day. Kirk's ADP is going to rise multiple rounds. It may jump over 30 spots to be perfectly honest. Kirk was on his way to about 800 yards receiving as a rookie in the league's worst offense. He showcased big-play ability as well as the capability to play both outside and in the slot. Larry Fitzgerald is done. Sorry Fitz. It's over. Kirk is the new number one in Arizona.
I believe his ADP is depressed as a result of the Cardinals drafting three WRs. Let me put a stop to any delusions right now: Andy Isabella is the only rookie WR that matters. Kirk is already there and he's already proven he is good at football. Hakeem Butler will only play in four-receiver sets, at best, and Keesean Johnson won't even be active. If nothing else, the preseason will remind everyone that Kirk is entrenched as the primary target in an air raid offense. Do not even pretend like you can get him this late. With that being said, Kirk still has a ton of ground to cover before he would be too rich for me. I love Kirk this season.
Daesean Hamilton (WR, DEN)
Current ADP: 158, WR58
This is even more ridiculous than Kirk. If I had to guarantee that one player would see his ADP not only rise, but rise by more than any other player in fantasy football, it would be DaeSean Hamilton. Courtland Sutton had his chance as the WR1 last season and underwhelmed. Meanwhile, Hamilton took over for Emmanuel Sanders in the slot and average 9.5 targets per game over the final four weeks of 2018. Hamilton didn't light the world on fire, but he had a safe, 5-40 floor. You're telling me a nine ppg floor is barely worth a top 60 pick at the position? In the words of Chad Johnson, "Child Please."
With Sanders unlikely to be 100% by the time the season starts and also being 32 years old, the stage is set for Hamilton to lead the Broncos in targets. I am going to guarantee that Hamilton's ADP cracks, at minimum the top 40 at the position by mid to late August. That 158 ADP is going to skyrocket into the double digits. I'm talking a minimum five round spike over the next few months. And I'm fine with it. I will target Hamilton almost as aggressively as Christian Kirk.
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