RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta on Sunday for the Quaker State 400. This is the second visit this season to Atlanta.
Track changes and car changes have made this a wildly different track than it used to be. Despite being a 1.5-mile track, this place races like a superspeedway now, with plenty of pack racing. In the only other race here since those changes, William Byron won. Just 25 drivers finished the race because of crashes.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 7/10/22 at 3:25 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Kyle Busch
Starts 19th - DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $14,000
I'm trying out a new strategy today, which is fading all the big money and instead focusing on place differential for fast cars that start between 10th and 20th. Atlanta should be a weird race, so let's make our strategy weird too.
Busch was 33rd here earlier this season, but he led 21 laps before he crashed out. The 18 car showed it could run upfront at this new Atlanta—now, he just needs to find a way to finish the race. Starting 19th offers some decent place differential upside too, which is why I like these drivers starting in this range. Because things should be flattened out a little bit, I'd rather bet on drivers who are better positioned PD-wise, because predicting leaders will be tough. I mean...Ricky Stenhouse Jr. led 22 laps here in the Spring.
Joey Logano
Starts 17th - DraftKings $9,600| FanDuel $11,000
Like Busch, Logano starts in the back half of the top-20.
Unlike Busch, Logano actually finished the race here last time, leading 12 laps and finishing ninth.
Logano has been on a tough run lately, finishing outside of the top-10 in six of the last nine races. But in the three races where he was top-10, Logano has two victories. Weird season for this 22 car.
William Byron
Starts 13th - DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $9,000
This is great pricing for Byron, the one driver who really figured this track out last time.
There were 46 lead changes in that race—for comparison, the last race here on the old version of the track had 10 lead changes. But despite all of that moving around, Byron led 111 of the 325 laps and won the race.
The huge amount of weirdness involved with this race means that there's no such thing as a slam-dunk play. I mean...Corey LaJoie finished fifth here in March, and Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch both finished 30th or worse.
But Byron's showing in March suggests that he's the closest thing there is to a safe play on Sunday. Decent PD upside. A recent dominant run here. A Cup win at Daytona on his resume too, which races similar to this.
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Bubba Wallace
Starts 32nd - DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $11,500
Now to the second part of our lineup building: guys starting near the back who offer even more place differential, but might require things to get a little weird to really pay off.
We start with Wallace, who has proven to be a good pack racer. It seems like Bubba always finds himself up front for a time at tracks like this, but then something happens.
He was 13th here earlier this season and led three laps. Wallace will have a tougher task with this starting spot, but if he keeps it clean, he'll move forward.
Brad Keselowski
Starts 31st - DraftKings $6,500 | FanDuel $5,000
Keselowski finished 12th the last time we were here. He also got a huge points penalty then, which essentially derailed his season and made every race a must-win if Brad K wants to get into the playoffs.
Can he win this must-win race? Probably not. His two career Atlanta victories don't really matter too much with how this track has changed. But Brad has a top-10 this season at Daytona, which has weirdly become more predictive for this track than anywhere else since both are pack racing tracks.
Keselowski should be able to gain at least 10 spots if he stays out of trouble.
Noah Gragson
Starts 29th - DraftKings $5,800 | FanDuel $4,500
Gragson's aggressiveness could always get the best of him and spoil his race. We thought he'd be a great play in the first race here this season when he started 30th, but he was the first driver to crash out of the race.
But he has a couple of solid runs here in Xfinity this year. He led 38 laps in the first Atlanta race this season before finishing just 26th but bounced back with a sixth-place run yesterday.
Because he runs both series here in both visits this season, Gragson has a lot of track experience at the new Atlanta.
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