Randal Grichuk (OF, TOR) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~280

CURRENT ADP: 380

ANALYSIS: Randal Grichuk had a .238/.285/.473 triple slash line with 22 HR and six swipes in 442 PA in 2017; this is not quite enough to move the needle in fantasy, but prorating it to 600 PAs gets you to 30 HR. That's a pretty good start. That gives Grichuk a common fantasy profile: low batting average with tons of power. Grichuk's new home park will also increase his power production. Toronto played exactly neutral for right-handed power last season with a HR factor of 100, but St. Louis curtailed it with a factor of 90.

Toronto's factors are all over the place, sometimes inflating right-handed power significantly (105 in 2015, for example). Grichuk might lose a couple of singles to his new park (1B factors of 102 vs. 99), but overall it should be a boon for his fantasy value. A 30-HR season is a conservative projection, with upside for 40+ if he has one of those magical years everybody with this profile seems to have at least once. There are a lot of worse bets than using a late pick to see if this is Grichuk's year.