RADIO
We finish out our NFL team power rankings for fantasy purposes with the cream of the crop. If you didn't catch the first two parts of this series, check out teams 21-32 here and 11-20 here.
As any experienced fantasy football enthusiast knows, evaluating individual players is only part of the equation when it comes to building a roster. There are many instances in which the team a player plays for is just as important as his ability and talent. And in these cases, the determining factor is not always whether the team is good or bad in real life.
Teams that are good on the actual football field aren't always appealing from a fantasy standpoint. The criteria we use to gauge a team's fantasy appeal can certainly intersect with the qualities that make them a winning or losing team in real life, but there are also junctures where the two roads go their separate ways.
How to Evaluate Fantasy Relevance
A few questions we can ask ourselves when evaluating a team from a fantasy perspective include the following: What kind of offensive philosophy does their coaching staff employ? Run-heavy? Pass-happy? A balanced attack? Is their quarterback any good? And if he isn't, are the skill players around him good enough to overcome his play? (The same can be asked of good quarterbacks with underwhelming supporting casts.) Does their offensive line protect well enough to give plays a chance to develop, or is the quarterback constantly taking hits and running for his life? Does their defense keep them in games, or are they routinely forced to try to outscore their opponents? What does their schedule look like?
And then there is a pretty tricky one: If the team in question frequently distributes the ball around to multiple players, is that a detriment or an advantage in fantasy? In other words, some teams are appealing because they have multiple players to turn to, if they're adept enough offensively to sustain multiple fantasy contributors. Others can be unappealing for the exact same reason, such as a team that regularly utilizes multiple running backs because the head coach doesn't trust any of them enough to give one a full workload.
I'm certain there are other questions fantasy writers would choose to ask, but these are a solid foundation and most of them are pretty easily answered. With these criteria in mind, and with all of the NFL's major offseason events having concluded, I've compiled a ranking board for all 32 teams in terms of how fantasy-relevant they figure to be in 2020. We'll discuss each team's strengths (if they have any) and flaws, some in more detail than others, with the ultimate goal of providing ourselves a starting point for our spring and summer draft preparation.
Note: All stats used in this article are courtesy of Pro Football Reference, unless otherwise noted.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles will return 80% of a starting offensive line that PFF ranked number one in the league after the 2019 season. That number could be 100% if current free agent Jason Peters re-signs with Philly. Keeping Carson Wentz upright is about 75% of the battle in making this a fantasy-friendly offense, as the Eagles quarterback proved he can take care of the other 25% by himself when he threw for over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns despite not having a single wide receiver catch more than 43 passes in 2019.
Jalen Reagor might not be the savior at wideout the fan base was hoping for in a draft teeming with upside at the position, but he certainly can't hurt. Give Wentz a collection of pass-catchers with four functional limbs, and he'll find a way to get something out of them.
Other than the obvious advantage of nabbing Zach Ertz in fantasy, the most exciting aspect of the Eagles roster as we head into 2020 is running back Miles Sanders. It took Sanders awhile to fend off Jordan Howard as a rookie, but he did it nonetheless, and now Howard is gone anyway. Boston Scott is not going to take a meaningful portion of work away from Sanders, making the latter a strong late-first or early-second-round pick in 2020 drafts. A little better luck in the WR health department makes the Eagles a prolific fantasy offense this year.
9. Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook makes the Vikings an interesting fantasy offense all by himself. Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than it appears he will ever get credit for at this point. Adam Thielen, when healthy, goes into just about any weekly matchup with WR1 upside. Combine all three players into one fantasy football triumvirate and Minnesota's shuttle is all-systems-go. Adding even more intrigue to the recipe is rookie wideout Justin Jefferson, who could be in line for a healthy target share right away in the absence of Stefon Diggs.
A few things stand out when forecasting Minnesota's range of fantasy outcomes, however. The first is that the Vikings were one of the league's best scoring defenses in 2019, tying with the Steelers for the fifth-fewest points allowed per game. There's been turnover on that side of the ball this offseason, particularly in the secondary, but I don't think we're anticipating a massive step back for this defensive unit overall.
In other words, the Vikings aren't likely to be facing many big-time deficits on the scoreboard, which plays right into our second factor: Minnesota's offensive line did a much better job in run blocking than pass protection in 2019. With this in mind, it should come as no surprise that the Vikings attempted the third-fewest passes and the fourth-most rushes in the NFL last year. We're looking at a defense that is going to give the Vikings a chance to play with the lead more often than not, and an offensive line whose collective strength is protecting the run--which is exactly what most teams want to do when they are ahead on the scoreboard. So my worry (if you can call it that) with Minnesota's offense comes down to a distribution of wealth.
We know Thielen's ceiling in any given week. We know Cousins is likely to establish a lucrative rapport with Jefferson. But we're also going to have to deal with our fair share of ups and downs in the passing game, because this offense can run almost disproportionately through Cook when the Vikings have their way. On that note, the only reason I'd even entertain the idea of passing on Cook with the third overall pick in PPR drafts is that he has yet to play all 16 games in a season.
8. Arizona Cardinals
I considered putting the Cardinals a few spots higher, but I think top-10 suffices at getting my point across, which is that this offense's fantasy upside is as scintillating as the Phoenix sun. Since 2000, only four rookie quarterbacks have attempted at least 500 passes and 50 rushes in their debut seasons: Kyler Murray, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, and Andrew Luck. Murray is the only one of the four to have completed more than 60% of his passes (64.4%), he posted the lowest interception percentage (2.21%), and he led all four in yards per rush attempt at 5.85. If these can be viewed as cherry-picked numbers, fine, but they also serve to highlight the fact that Murray was given a lot of responsibility on an otherwise bad team in his rookie year, and he largely answered the bell.
What we really love here is the marriage between Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Not all head coaches possess the creativity or aggressiveness to get the best out of an undersized speedster like Murray. Kingsbury does, and that's a huge part of why Murray was given such a high-volume workload as a rookie. It's the perfect union.
In year two, Murray welcomes DeAndre Hopkins--who has to be the single most impactful offensive acquisition of the offseason--into his WR corps. With Hopkins and Christian Kirk operating as downfield threats and sure-handed Larry Fitzgerald scurrying around in the intermediate range of defensive backfields, there's reason to believe the Cardinals can sustain three fantasy-relevant wideouts in PPR formats.
We haven't even mentioned Kenyan Drake yet! After three and a half years in Miami, Drake mercifully escaped the Dolphins' fantasy dungeon and morphed into the player we were all hoping he'd turn out to be in the second half of 2019. He carried the ball 123 times in eight games with Arizona, which surpassed his previous career-high in any full season with Miami and found himself involved in the Cardinals' passing game as well. Again: Kingsbury finds a way to put his players in positions to succeed. Drake is back to being an exciting candidate on draft day, with legitimate top-five RB upside in his range of outcomes.
7. Seattle Seahawks
I have two major questions about the Seahawks in 2020. The first: Can Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf coexist as high-end fantasy receivers? I believe the answer is yes, but it's worth looking at the overlap between Metcalf's rookie surge and Lockett's mystifying disappearance in 2019. In Weeks 8-17, Metcalf recorded 38 catches on 60 targets for 511 yards and five touchdowns. He eclipsed 70 receiving yards and/or scored at least one touchdown in seven of these final nine games.
Lockett and Metcalf served as a dynamic duo during the first two weeks (Weeks 8-9) of the latter's breakout, but it was mostly downhill for Lockett from there. From Weeks 10-17, Lockett caught just 23 of 38 targets for 290 yards and two touchdowns. In six of his final seven games, Lockett failed to record more than 51 receiving yards. Lockett finished the season with 1,052 yards and eight touchdowns on 82 catches, meaning a little over 70% of his season-long production basically came in the first half of the year. I think we all expect both wideouts to level off and display more consistency in 2020, but this is certainly a trend worth taking into consideration on draft day.
The second burning question hanging over Seattle is its offensive line, which would be even less celebrated than it already is if its quarterback was pretty much anyone other than Russell Wilson. There's been a fair amount of turnover for the Seahawks up front this offseason, and only time will tell how quickly the new pieces can mesh together. The great equalizer is Wilson, who could probably throw for 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns with meteors landing on the field around him.
Running back Chris Carson is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 1,151 rushing yards, and nobody behind him on the Seahawks depth chart is especially intimidating as a potential vulture. Factoring in career highs in receptions (37) and targets (47) from a year ago, Carson should be fine as an unexciting, volume-dependent workhorse who can land safely in RB2 range with a handful of touchdowns. Seattle is one of only a few teams I think we can reasonably pencil in for a top-five QB, a top-15 running back, and two top-30 wide receivers. That's not a bad security blanket on draft day.
6. Baltimore Ravens
Last year's highest-scoring NFL offense led by last year's highest-scoring fantasy quarterback heads into this year ranked outside the top five in terms of fantasy relevance? On my list, yes. And here's why. The Ravens attempted 596 rushes in 2019, 98 more than last year's second most run-heavy team. Lamar Jackson accounted for 176 of those, or just under 30%. From where I stand, that's not a good thing when I'm looking at Mark Ingram in the early rounds, or at J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards later on in the draft.
We love that Baltimore can reasonably expect to spend most of its time playing from ahead again in 2020, thus resulting in a heavy dose of ground-and-pound. What we don't love is that the Ravens' quarterback is one of the most dangerous open-field ball carriers in NFL history, and that he's going to vulture away opportunities from teammates he doesn't even share a position with. Even though the Ravens run the ball effectively, I think the presence of too many viable options does more harm than good to each individual RB's fantasy value, especially when you factor Jackson into the mix.
The Ravens also attempted the fewest passes in the league last year, yet led the NFL with an 8.4% touchdown rate through the air--nearly two full percentage points higher than second-place Tennessee's mark of 6.5%. With the exception of tight end Mark Andrews, no Baltimore pass-catcher was targeted more than 71 times or caught more than 46 passes. What it all boils down to is this: The Ravens' fantasy value in 2019 stemmed from their ability to reel off huge plays and touchdowns, which helped to cancel out the overall lack of volume through the air for their pass-catchers. It also resulted, however, in an extremely dangerous game of chance from week to week, as someone like Marquise Brown was just as capable of giving you a 25-point fantasy outing as he was of disappearing completely. I don't like my fantasy hopes resting on the possibility of a 40-yard touchdown, and there's no wideout in Baltimore that can be safely described as having a high floor.
5. Atlanta Falcons
If you've been keeping score, you'll notice we've only discussed one NFC South team thus far. You didn't count wrong. There are three NFC South teams among my top five fantasy-relevant squads, and we start with the Falcons. I think we need to give Todd Gurley a pass for averaging the second-worst yards-per-carry average of his career behind an atrocious 2019 Rams offensive line. That said, Atlanta's line wasn't a bastion of excellence in 2019 either, and is an unknown quantity heading into 2020. In any case, Gurley has no meaningful competition for backfield touches in his new home. He's going to see volume, and despite a years-long examination of his health, it's worth noting he's missed just four games since the start of 2016. And he's only 25 years old!
Atlanta's passing game speaks for itself, though it's unfortunate that tight end Austin Hooper left immediately after posting a career year. Newcomer Hayden Hurst will fill that vacancy, and presumably see the lion's share of the 97 targets that go with it. But everyone knows the real show in town is Atlanta's receiving tandem of Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Jones put up 1,394 receiving yards in 2019, which was somehow his lowest such total in six years. He's earned the right to be a guy you hold onto for too long, as opposed to one you sell off too early. Ridley has been a fine Robin to Jones' Batman in his first two years, and should be in line for well over 100 targets in 2020 after seeing 93 of them in 13 games last year. The Falcons could theoretically produce the overall WR1 (Jones), a high-end WR2 (Ridley), a low-end RB1 (Gurley), a top-five quarterback (Matt Ryan), and a mid-tier, start-worthy tight end (Hurst). That's some upside I want serious shares of on draft day.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were the most exciting--albeit not the most efficient--passing attack in the NFL last year. And now they have a quarterback who isn't going to throw 30 passes to the other team. Tom Brady's new weapons include Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both of whom ranked top-15 in yards per catch last year. Do you think he's not excited to have those guys on his side after years of settling for check-downs to James White? Brady's old pal Rob Gronkowski has also made his well-documented return from retirement, giving the ageless wonder another behemoth of a target to go along with Evans. Gronkowski's days as the overall TE1 are likely behind him for good, but Tampa's passing game at large figures to be as lethal as ever.
All that said, perhaps it's running back Ronald Jones who benefits the most from having Brady as his quarterback. Whether all of Jameis Winston's turnovers were his fault or not, the end result of them was the other team having the ball all the time and/or being in position to score points. Neither consequence is conducive to the Buccaneers being able to establish the run consistently. With Brady at the helm, the Bucs will find scoring 35 points to be a luxury as opposed to a necessity, which will be a boon to Jones' volume. The icing on the cake here includes an offensive line that was solid in 2019 and got better this offseason, as well as the aggressive offensive coaching style of Bruce Arians.
3. New Orleans Saints
I struggled with whether to rank the Saints ahead of Atlanta and Tampa Bay or behind them, as I believe quantity is on the Falcons' and Bucs' side in terms of skill position players who can finish (at least) inside the top 15 or 20 at their respective positions. I ultimately settled on the Saints as my number-three fantasy team due simply to the near certainty that we know what we're going to get from them. Michael Thomas's 149 receptions in 2019 were the most in a single season in NFL history, and no player had caught 140 passes since 2002. He also caught 125 passes in 2018, which ranks sixth all-time, and has caught at least 92 in each of his four NFL seasons. I'd have an easier time betting against a sunrise than I would betting against Thomas finishing 2020 as a WR1.
Alvin Kamara was bound to run into some scoring regression after racking up 19 total touchdowns in 2018, but I don't think anyone imagined he'd only find the endzone six times in 2019. Now he should be on the receiving end of some positive regression in the touchdown department, and he's still one of the safest PPR running backs out there. Since Kamara came into the league in 2017, only Christian McCaffrey has more receptions among running backs. Among the players in the top five, only Kamara and McCaffrey have attempted more than 250 rushes in the same span. In other words, volume is going to continue to work in Kamara's favor and he's also primed to score a few more touchdowns.
New Orleans offers us two players with low-end RB1/WR1 floors; a safe, mid-range QB1 in Drew Brees; an intriguing flex option with upside for more in newcomer Emmanuel Sanders; and a tight end who should at least be start-worthy most weeks in Jared Cook. Oh, and their offensive line is one of the league's best. When the worst-case scenario is this favorable, sometimes you don't need to spend much time evaluating the ceiling.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
In Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have the best real-life quarterback in the NFL. In Travis Kelce, the Chiefs have the most productive tight end in the NFL since 2016. In Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have the premier long-range receiving threat in the NFL. You can pretty safely pencil Mahomes and Kelce in for top-three fantasy finishes at their respective positions, and we've already seen Hill's big-play ability result in an overall WR1 season. The only real detriment to rostering Hill in 2019 was that he missed four games.
What prevents the Chiefs from claiming the number-one spot in my relevance rankings is the drop-off in dependability after those three. There are going to be weeks when the likes of Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson go off for 100 yards and a touchdown. But those weeks are likely to include three or four receptions with one of them just happening to spring for a big play, and you're unlikely to know when they're coming. This is a WR group with a very low collective PPR floor after Hill.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the real X-factor in this offense for obvious reasons. After being taken as the final first-round pick of the 2020 draft, Edwards-Helaire could easily go on to be this year's Kareem Hunt out of the Kansas City backfield. But Damien Williams is still lurking on the depth chart, and we saw Andy Reid employ a relatively frustrating committee approach to his RB group in 2019. While that approach was largely influenced by injuries and the lack of a genuine go-to guy, I don't know that Williams is going to disappear completely right out of the gate. After all, the Chiefs did just win a Super Bowl without a singular workhorse back. If I have to choose between only two outcomes, I'm more comfortable betting on Edwards-Helaire to have a strong second half of 2020 than I am counting on him to be an immediate sensation.
1. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys will probably find a way to finish 7-9 and miss the playoffs this season (as a Cowboys fan, so I'm allowed to say things like this), but this team has everything you could possibly ask for in a fantasy football package. There is no more clear-cut case of a running back having an absolute stranglehold on his team's rushing workload than Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott led all NFL players in red-zone rushing attempts in 2019, and trailed only Christian McCaffrey in total touches. With bell-cow RBs becoming increasingly more difficult to come by from one year to the next, you're doing yourself a favor by spending a high draft pick on one of the few players with no threat of winding up in anything closely resembling a timeshare.
You could be forgiven for not knowing Michael Gallup had over 1,100 receiving yards in 2019. For all the attention Amari Cooper deservedly receives, Gallup is a fantastic complement in this passing attack. Gallup actually averaged more targets per game than Cooper in 2019, and both saw over 100 for the season. The two can safely coexist as solid fantasy options on a weekly basis. Elsewhere on the field, the departures of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten vacated 166 targets. Not all of those are going to CeeDee Lamb, but it's well within reason to suggest he could flirt with 100 of them as a rookie. Dallas didn't spend a first-round draft pick on one of its least-needed positions just to have the kid run around out there. He's going to be involved. This is the rare instance in which I'm not overly concerned about too many cooks in the kitchen; there will be enough to go around for all three of Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb.
Dak Prescott's weaponry provides him with the chance to steal the overall QB1 finish from Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson in 2020. With one of the league's best offensive lines, all these guys are going to have the room they need to make plays. And the defense might just be mediocre enough to force Dallas into a handful of situations in which it has to unleash the full capacity of its offensive firepower throughout the course of what looks like a pretty daunting schedule. This is a team with bulletproof floors at QB and RB, as well as the ability to sustain three start-worthy wide receivers in any given week. The upside beyond that is astronomical, at least on the fantasy football field.
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