RADIO
There has been a lot of speculation on who will take over for Shane Vereen as the Patriots third down back. This speculation comes with good reason as Vereen was absolutely dominant as a backfield receiver at times during his run as the Patriots safety valve.
For much of the offseason the fantasy attention has been focused on free agent signee Travaris Cadet and sophomore RB James White. Recent news indicates we may be overlooking another candidate for the job: 4th year veteran Brandon Bolden.
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Brandon Bolden, the Quiet Veteran of the Patriots RB Crew
For some reason before hearing this recent news, I thought Bolden was older than he is. He’s just one of those guys that feels like he has always been around occasionally vulturing touchdowns from Stevan Ridley and Vereen. The truth is he came in as undrafted free agent the year after those two were drafted. He hasn’t been totally invisible - he’s recorded 164 touches and six touchdowns in his three seasons with the Patriots - but he has been completely irrelevant in fantasy aside from some short-lived speculation that he may take over for Ridley last season after Ridley’s injury.
When I looked at Bolden’s workout metrics over on Player Profiler, I was surprised to see Pierre Thomas as his best comparable. That’s certainly a good start as Thomas has been one of the best pass-catching specialists of the past decade or so. Most of Bolden’s workout metrics don’t stick out at all. The only one that does is his burst score which falls in the 76th percentile. Athleticism doesn’t seem to be as necessary trait for receiving backs. Jacquizz Rodgers, Theo Riddick and Travaris Cadet are all among the least athletic running backs in the game but have all found PPR relevance in the past few years.
If you look at Bolden’s college stats, you’ll see that he did catch 32 passes in 2010 and averaged over 10 yards per catch in all four of his seasons at Mississippi. That’s actually better than Shane Vereen who never caught 30+ or averaged more than 9.8 yards per catch. College production is not always indicative of NFL production but it definitely doesn’t hurt to see that a player has shown the ability in the past.
In the NFL as a receiver, Bolden actually did get an extended look as Shane Vereen’s injury replacement in 2013 but the Patriots eventually turned away from Bolden. In two of the four games following Vereen’s fractured wrist, Bolden caught 5+ passes for 40 yards which highlights his upside as a third down back. Unfortunately the experiment soured. In the second of Bolden’s big games as a receiver he caught six passes for 40 yards but dropped his only other two targets and proceeded to drop an additional pass in each of the two following games. Just like that Bolden’s opportunity evaporated as Bill Belichick is not one to be generous with repeated mistakes. The 2013 season shows us both that Bolden does offer upside as a receiver but also that drop issues could turn him into the receiving version of Stevan Ridley.
The Other Competition
Bolden is no lock for the third down role. Travaris Cadet has actually been my personal favorite following a 38 catch season with the Saints last year. Unfortunately he pulled his hamstring early in the preseason which has been one of the biggest factors in getting Bolden time on the field to grab the role. In 2014, Cadet had an excellent 88.4% catch rate last year according to PFF and also had just one drop. With that success he could easily win this role but the longer he stays on the sidelines with an injury, the further he will fall behind in an offense that is amongst the most complicated and chemistry based in the NFL.
Then we have James White who had an excellent senior season at Wisconsin where he rushed for 1400+ yards and also caught 39 passes for an additional 300 yards which was good enough to get him drafted in the 4th round. However, since joining the Patriots last year he has failed to impress the coaches and was on the field for just 31 snaps as a rookie. Following Stevan Ridley’s torn ACL, the Patriots looked right past White and promoted formerly undrafted practice squad member Jonas Gray. Now the early reports this season say that James White has looked disappointing once again. The only positive for White is that he did catch all five of his targets last year, but that’s an extremely small sample size. Given the disappointing reports I will be avoiding James White entirely.
How Valuable is the Third Down Role?
As mentioned in the intro, Shane Vereen was dominant at times as a pass-catcher. In his first five games of the 2013 season (with time missed in between due to injury) he averaged an excellent 8 catches for 75 yards including an astounding 12 catch 153 yard game. He looked to be the type of post-injury pickup that won championships. Although he did catch two touchdowns in the final three games of the 2013 season, Vereen never came close to his five game 8 for 75 stretch. In the 19 games that have followed he has averaged just 48 total yards per game and just once caught more than five passes and just once on a separate occasion had more than 70 rec yards.
Vereen did still finish with the 5th most receptions for a running back last year but that was just five more catches and 20 more yards than he had in eight games in 2013. Despite just 838 yards from scrimmage and what I would consider a disappointing season compared to lofty expectations for Vereen, he finished as the PPR RB20. Even if Bolden or Cadet are not as good as Vereen in the third down role (which I expect to be the case) they should be able to offer surprisingly good value and be flexworthy at the very least. The big difference is that unlike Vereen both potential pass-catchers are free. Even in PPR, Travaris Cadet has a Fantasy Pros ADP of RB84 and Bolden currently has no ADP at all in a list that goes to RB95.
When I first heard the news that Bolden was the frontrunner for Vereen’s job, I quickly dismissed it as irrelevant given Bolden’s lack of impact in three seasons with the team. After taking a longer look, I’m more open to the possibility. Bolden already was the first man to get a chance for the role when Vereen previously went down. Even if it didn’t end well, that says something. He’s been with the team longer than the competition and perhaps most important, his main competitor isn’t on the field right now. Every day Cadet sits is a day that Bolden has a chance to add distance between the two. The Patriots have had a back with at least 40 catches each of the past three seasons. At the current cost of “free”, I think I’ll start taking some last round fliers on Brandon Bolden. It should be apparent very early whether he is holding down the role and if not, dropping him isn’t a big deal.
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