One of the most difficult issues to navigate during this time of the year are running back committees. Each start decision is critical as we near the playoffs and need every victory. The last thing you want to do is start a guy who drops a dud in your lineup because he’s out touched by his teammates. So which backfields should you worry about and which backfields should you start with ease? These are the backfields you should keep a close eye on in Week 11.
This article is all about watching how a backfield is being used for every team. Snap counts are very useful, but I want to know what a player is doing when he has the ball in his hands. Anytime a running back gets a touch, what is being done with that touch?
Watching a trend with touches for running backs will not only let us know their usage for any given week or period, but how effective they are with the ball. High volume plus high effectiveness is always the best outcome. High volume with low effectiveness can be great and low volume with high effectiveness can be streaky at times. Let’s dive into our Week 11 preview.
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RB Touches and Efficiency Breakdown
Tennessee Titans
Dare we say Derrick Henry is going to try and salvage his value? Henry had a roller coaster off-season in terms of value but considering Dion Lewis hasn’t been able to run away with the job, Henry is sniffing more playing time. Henry now has four touchdowns in the last three games while Lewis struggles to his four yards per carry. However, Lewis still had 61% of the touches in Week 10 while Henry had 31% and was non-existent in the passing game.
This is a tough matchup to read on a weekly basis and even though both are excellent plays this week against Indianapolis, moving forward Henry is only a touchdown dependent running back unless he can increase his volume. If that can happen, Henry could become a must start on a weekly basis.
Philadelphia Eagles
Another backfield that is looking like an even split. The good news about this backfield though is head coach Doug Pederson giving a voice of confidence to Josh Adams the past week. Even though Adams averaged 6.7 yards per touch, he only had seven touches, which were all carries. The odd man out could be coming down to Corey Clement who only averaged 1.3 yards per touch and seems to be less effective every week.
We could be looking at a split backfield with Adams getting a bulk of the carries and Wendall Smallwood getting the passing game work. Smallwood has the most receptions of any Eagles running back this season and sports a healthy 5.6 yards per touch. As long as the Eagles work Clement out of the game plan and get Adams more carries, I am willing to invest in Adams as a deep bench stash the rest of the season. New Orleans presents a tough matchup in Week 11, so Smallwood could be the safer PPR play.
Detroit Lions
Are we starting to see the tide turn in Detroit? Is Kerryon Johnson going to be the workhorse moving forward? Even though Johnson had 61% of the touches in Week 10, he only had 14 total touches. The Lions continue to feed LeGarrette Blount who received another six carries last week but averaged under one yard a carry. That right, Blount couldn’t even average a yard per carry. Also factor in the return of Theo Riddick in the passing game and the upside of Johnson is limited right now.
Johnson was able to scrap together a great week against the Bears, but it was salvaged by two touchdowns. Another tough matchup against Carolina hurts his value, but if the Lions can ever move on from forcing the ball to Blount, we can re-exam this scenario.
Baltimore Ravens
Alex Collins owners have been frustrated by fumbles and Javorius Allen all season long, but is that time coming to an end? The Ravens are coming off a bye-week and have added Ty Montgomery to the fold as well, but can Collins overcome this committee to regain the confidence of owners down the stretch? The Ravens have the easiest schedule for running backs to end the season which could mean volume and efficiency for Collins. Best case scenario? The Ravens have gotten Montgomery up to speed and will limit how many times Allen touches the ball. Collins would then get all the carries while Montgomery works the passing game.
It's important to note the injury to Joe Flacco as well. If he can’t play, it means Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffen will step in and that could mean a nice opportunity for Collins to be relied on more. Collins has four touchdowns over his last four games and is trending up. Last time the Ravens were on the field Allen was only able to average 2.3 yards per touch and hasn’t had double digit touches since Week 5. This backfield will be all Collins the rest of the season with great upside. Not only do I want Collins on my team, but I want him in my lineup.