RB Touches and Efficiency Breakdown - Week 16 Preview

Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL and the final Running Back Touches and Efficiency Breakdown of the 2018 season. I decided to put this piece together a week after the season started and I am glad for that. What turned out to be a shot in the dark at some data I didn’t see many analysts breaking down for fantasy owners turned into a weekly segment that I believe truly helped us all understand just how much running backs do for the game.

Looking ahead to the 2019 season, I can already tell you this article will be back and better than ever. New ideas and new information will help bolster something I hope you all enjoyed this season. Breaking down the running back position is one of the most entertaining things I do for this job. Keep an eye out for an extended breakdown of all teams after the season is done.

This article is all about watching how a backfield is being used for every team. Snap counts are very useful, but I want to know what a player is doing when he has the ball in his hands. Anytime a running back gets a touch, what is being done with that touch? Watching a trend with touches for running backs will not only let us know their usage for any given week or period, but how effective they are with the ball. High volume plus high effectiveness is always the best outcome. High volume with low effectiveness can be great and low volume with high effectiveness can be streaky at times. Let’s dive into our Week 16 preview.

RB Touches and Efficiency Breakdown

Can we trust Jordan Howard or Tarik Cohen in our championship matchup?

I personally want Jordan Howard to go away. Not because I think he is a bad player or because I don’t like him, but because we have absolutely no idea what to do with Howard anymore. In three of the last five weeks, Howard has led the Chicago Bears backfield in touches and hasn’t looked bad the last three weeks. During that time Howard has averaged 18 carries a game for 79 rushing yards for 4.38 yards per carry. So, the question may not be do we start Howard in Week 16, but do we start Tarik Cohen in Week 16.

The San Francisco 49ers have given up 90 receptions to opposing running backs this season, third most in the league. That stat alone would lead me to believe Cohen could have a huge week, but he has been a bit of a roller coaster. Before Chris Carson in Week 15, the 49ers hadn’t allowed more than 20 fantasy points to a running back since Todd Gurley in Week 7. After only 10 total touches in Week 15 and a game script that could allow the Bears to run the ball more with Howard, I think Cohen is a risky play in Week 16.

Will Jamaal Williams reward owners?

Aaron Jones is officially on IR and owners who have been relying on Jones for several weeks are now faced with the prospects of putting Jamaal Williams in their lineups instead. Williams had the backfield to himself after Jones left last week’s game and handled 16 touches for 6.1 yards per touch. He won’t have much competition for those touches in Week 16 either against the New York Jets who rank 21^st in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season.

Even if the matchup doesn’t seem great, we know Aaron Rodgers is banged up right now which could lead to more than enough volume for Williams to be at least an RB3 this week. Williams is averaging 4.1 yards per touch on the season, and if he can get upwards of 25 touches this week, he could go over 100 total yards with touchdown upside.

Should Leonard Fournette be in your lineup?

It is Week 16 and some owners are debating sitting a guy they drafted in the first or second round and waited for patiently as he returned from injury. Over the last five weeks, outside of the one-week Leonard Fournette was suspended, he has averaged just over 82% of the Jaguars backfield touches each week. The only running backs to average more are Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb and Todd Gurley.

Even though Fournette is coming off a week in which he only had 14 touches, the Jaguars will get the Miami Dolphins in Week 16. The Dolphins are giving up 23.24 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, fifth-most in the league. The volume will be there, and the matchup will be there for Fournette this week. Don’t overthink this, play him.

Kalen who?

When Frank Gore went down with an injury in Week 15, most of us would have assumed Kenyan Drake would jump in and take over the backfield. Adam Gase pulled a fast one on us though, inserting Kalen Ballage into the game and gave him 13 touches to lead the Dolphins with 57% of the touches. That was the same amount touches Ballage had all season leading up to Week 15.

I don’t think there is any way we can trust Kenyan Drake in championship week even though he is averaging 5.9 yards per touch this season. The Dolphins don’t seem committed to getting him more touches and after Ballage averaged 9.3 yards per touch last week, Drake as an uphill climb. With that being said, I can’t trust Ballage this week either. Crazier things have happened, but Jacksonville is only giving up 15.98 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, seventh fewest in the league.

Can Elijah McGuire save you this week?

For those of you desperate for a running back this week, one guy that was still widely available heading into this week was New York Jets running back Elijah McGuire. While I like the play this week based on volume and the opponent (Green Bay is giving up the 14^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs) I am worried about his efficiency.

McGuire has almost 70% of the running back touches the past two weeks but hasn’t been able to average over four yards per carry yet. McGuire is also only averaging 4.3 yards per touch on the season, which doesn’t scream high upside week to me. If you just need someone, anyone to help you get through championship week, McGuire will have enough volume to help. Just don’t anticipate him winning the week for you.