RADIO
We're this close to the regular season, and while there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies (check out all of our NBA Draft analysis here) we still need to reflect on the 2020-2021 season and what happened just a few months back in time. We had another short NBA offseason this year and it's time to do some evaluation on another unique season as we prepare for the 2022 campaign.
When it comes down to facing a fantasy draft, two numbers are often the most sought after by fantasy GMs: current ADP and overall rank from the prior season. No matter how experienced fantasy players are, those two numbers are thought of as the ultimate all-encompassing representations of every fantasy player's value. Knowing what he did in the league the last year and where he is getting drafted this season should be more than enough to make a reasonably good projection going forward, isn't it?
Turns out, those two numbers can be way misleading. Today, I'm here to focus on last season's stats from players labeled as Forwards (SF/PF) in order to assess whether those numbers should be seen as real and solid going forward, or just as outliers with slim chances to be there when all is said and done by the end of the 2021-22 season. Let's get to it!
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Real Fantasy Basketball Numbers - Forwards
Jerami Grant, SF/PF - Detroit Pistons
Remember, folks: always bet on yourself. And if you want proof it works, just as MIP-runner-up Mr. Jerami Grant. You know the story by now. Grant ditched Denver's offer last offseason in favor of Detroit's (on similar terms) to go lead the Pistons rebuilding effort becoming Motown's no. 1 player compared to the subpar role he played while in the Rocky Mountains. And he absolutely killed it.
Grant is here to stay for good. Given ample chance to perform, he went and take it all. Career-high marks in PPG (22.3) and APG (2.8), nearly that in RPG (4.6) and BPG (1.1), and quite a great season overall for someone stuck in the putrid Detroit rotation of warm bodies. Grant boosted his usage rate from 18% in 2020 to a monster 28.5% last season, yet he somehow improved all across the board in terms of efficiency rates (higher assisting, rebounding, and blocking percentages while keeping his turnover rate at just 9.1% even on such a jump in usage).
I 100% believe in Grant as a franchise leader going forward. The Pistons added the no. 1 overall pick to the fold--a point-guard--and that should help Grant improve his numbers even more. He's the cornerstone of the Pistons of the future and one to trust in fantasy leagues no matter the format.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C - Dallas Mavericks
Now, for the bad: KP is cooked for real. Real numbers don't mean great players all of the time. In this case, those stats are painting a rather bad picture of a once-coveted unicorn that analysts are now starting to say has the worst contract in the NBA. Ugh. It can be true, though. As I see it, Porzingis is still living in 2017 or 2018; he sees himself as a true honcho, a clear go-to/no. 1 player... but if we're real and honest he is just not that thing anymore. Let alone playing next to generational-phenom Luka Doncic.
It's hard to see Dallas moving on from Porzingis via trade, but with such an onerous contract as his in the books, odds are the Mavs will at least try to send him packing elsewhere. KP posted virtually the same numbers in 2021 as he did a season ago, finishing the year averaging a 20-9-1 per-game line with 1.3 BPG to go with. That's great, but what wasn't that good was his defense. And you might think defense doesn't move the needle in fantasy basketball (correct) but it truly impacts how players are used in real-life courts that ultimately is what allows or blocks guys from putting up numbers.
Porzingis' three-point attempts went down a ton, which is why he was able to raise his 3P% a bit last season. Same with the free-throw shots, as his FT rate cratered to only 20.2% while his FT% sky-rocketed to 85.5%. It's a lose-lose situation with KP. If he accepts the secondary role, his numbers will undoubtedly go down. If he refuses to become Luka's second-fiddle, he will hurt the team and fantasy GMs without very efficient numbers. I'm surely not spending high draft picks in Kristaps this summer.
Tristan Thompson, PF/C - Boston Celtics (now Sacramento Kings)
Double-T lasted all of one year in Beantown before getting shipped West to Sacto. Not optimal for the team that banked on him as a free agent just 12 months ago, though very reasonable given Thompson's putrid 2021 campaign. And that precisely is what kills TT for me going forward; he looked very realistically washed in Boston.
Thompson's minutes went down from 30.2 in his last Cavs days to only 23.8 MPG in 2021. The drop in counting stats was just bound to happen. On a per-36-minute basis, though, that shouldn't have been the case, but alas. Thompson's marks went down in points, assists, steals, and blocks, and only stayed the same in rebounds--all of that on a per-minute basis. It's not that he suffered a huge hit in Usage Rate (-3.1% and a season-long 15% mark), either.
As incredible as it might look, TT played to below-league-average (0.90) levels on a per-minute basis last season averaging only 0.88 FP/min. His assist rate cratered to 7.2% while his turnover rate stayed high at 14.1%. Sacramento won't be providing too much of an improvement--if any at all--to Thompson's environment next season, so it looks like the 30-year-old man might be getting into the free-falling span of his pro days.
Fake Fantasy Basketball Numbers - Forwards
Julius Randle, PF/C - New York Knicks
Fakity Fake, this Randlewus. See, as a Knicks soft-fan I want Randle's Most Improved Player season in 2021 to be more than real. I want him to really maintain this level of play, to become the new king of New York, and to make the Knicks at least advance a round or two in the playoffs. Do I trust that as a reality and a true possibility to repeat itself going forward? Nah, not entirely.
While Randle raised his MPG more than 6 minutes compared to his 2020 average, it's not that he was an afterthought in his first season in Manhattan. Even then, though, Randle got to increase all of his stats across the board except blocks (-0.1 BPG) compared to 2020. Randle's 24-10-6-1 line was, obviously, a career-high when looked at in conjunction, let alone on an individual stats basis.
All of a sudden, we found ourselves talking about Wilt-like Randle instead of Lottery-bust Randle in his age-26 and seventh-overall season. I'm not saying Randle can't perform nicely going forward now that he has seemingly found his mojo, but I just don't trust another top-5 (yes, he was that good) fantasy finish in 2022. It's going to take a miracle for him to rack up goodies as he did last season, even more considering the grueling amount of playing time Coach Thibs will give him.
Anthony Davis, PF/C - Los Angeles Lakers
Don't rule Anthony Davis out of top-fantasy-player contention, folks this fast, folks. If Randle (read above) represents the bad side of "fake" numbers, Davis represents the good and optimistic one. AD lost -1,600 FP from 2020 to 2021, which was basically double the amount of the second-largest loser P.J. Tucker. Obviously, Davis went through dry spells thanks to injuries that limited him to only 36 games on the full season, which cut his upside and made him finish as the 115th overall fantasy player. Ugh.
But fear nothing, my mates. Davis should be back healthy come October and a fresh, new regular season to showcase his talents--now along with old-pal LeBron and the likes of Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, shooting-machines Monk/Ellington/Ariza/Bazemore, and all of the other free-agency signees.
Davis could never truly catch his footing last year, and that's the only reason he finished with career/recent-season low marks in PPG (21.8), RPG (7.9), APG (3.1), SPG (1.3), and BPG (1.6). AD is right in the middle of his prime, and he could still improve his game a bit if injuries respect him--he had played at least 56 games in all of his other seasons prior to 2021. Don't lead a shaky season for the Lakers scare you when it comes to drafting AD; Davis is pretty much a top-15 player even if he only gets to play 60 regular-season games.
Davis Bertans, SF/PF - Washington Wizards
Bertans knew about his situation at the start of the 2020 season, entering a contract-year campaign, so he did what you have to do in such situations: stuff the stat sheet. Bertans put on the superhero cape, finished 2020 tied for the fourth-highest 3PM per game (3.7) while sustaining a rather high 43.3 FG% on a healthy 11.3 FGA, and averaged 15.4 PPG on the year forcing Washington's hand into handing him a palatable five-year extension.
But with his bag already filled, Bertans put on a putrid show last season. Bertans' stats dropped all across the board with the forward shooting 40% from the floor and below that (39.5%) from beyond the three-point line. The rebounds went down, the dimes too, and so did the scoring with only 11.5 PPG compared to 15+ the year before.
That's bad, but that's also expected to happen when you share the floor for most of the time (89:56 minutes compared to his second-most-featured lineup of 58:11 min.) with the likes of Deni Avdija, Robin Lopez, Raul Neto... and usage-rate-monster/stat-padder Russell Westbrook. The Wiz have a more balanced roster entering 2022, and Bertans should 1) rebound to his career averages, 2) benefit from more shared duties, and 3) keep his off-the-pine/25+MPG role. There will be fear among fantasy GMs when it comes to Bertans, but he's definitely poised for a bounceback season as I see it.
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