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What’s even more fun than making bold predictions? Looking back at the end of the season to see how good (or so, so hilariously bad) they were. Just like with the preseason pieces in March, I’m continuing the review of our RotoBaller staff’s 2016 bold predictions.
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Grading the Predictions
1. Jake Arrieta finishes outside the top 20 starting pitchers
The reigning Cy Young Award winner finished fifth in wins, 13th in ERA, 12th in WHIP and 15th in strikeouts. So no, he didn’t fall out of the top 20, but he did take a step back. My actual rankings had him 12th, which was actually pretty accurate. Arrieta’s batted ball splits were not as jaw-dropping as they were in 2014 and 2015, and he managed just a 4.03 ERA within the NL Central. I projected him to finish with an ERA around 3.00 and 200 strikeouts— sure enough, he posted a 3.10 ERA and 190 strikeouts. In the Rotoballer preseason rankings, I was the only one not to include him in the top four. I’m pretty proud of this prediction. Unfortunately, it’s all downhill from here.
Grade: A-
2/3. Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg finish as the No. 2 and 3 starting pitchers, respectively
Yikes. Not only did Harvey/Strasburg not finish 2/3 among starting pitchers, but neither of them even pitched a full season. Kershaw, who I assumed would hold the top spot, finished as a top-five starter in Roto leagues despite missing more than two months with a back injury.
However, Harvey struggled to the tune of a 4.86 ERA (5.91 in May) before undergoing season-ending surgery to fix his thoracic outlet syndrome. Over the first three months of the season, his strikeouts were down, his walks were up and he was being hit much harder than ever before. Harvey is more than capable of bouncing back in 2017, if healthy, but 2016 was a disaster from start to finish.
Strasburg was dominant out of the gate, taking a 2.62 ERA and a 12-0 record into the All-Star break and giving me false hope. It wasn’t until mid-August, when he allowed 15 runs in seven innings across two outings, that this half of my prediction started to fall apart. Strasburg made just one more start the rest of the way, lasting just 2.1 innings in his return from the disabled list on Sept. 7 before being shut down for the remainder of the regular season. Man, this guy just can’t stay healthy for a full year.
Grade: F
4. Marcus Stroman is a top-three AL starting pitcher
So, 2016 wasn’t Stroman’s breakout season. In a year where David Price, Dallas Keuchel, Chris Archer and Sonny Gray largely disappointed, only four of the top 15 starters came from the American League, so a strong season could have put Stroman right in that top category. Unfortunately, two seven-run outings in late May permanently raised his ERA above 4.00, and there was no coming back. He took a 4.89 ERA into the break, and although he managed a respectable 3.68 ERA over the second half, the damage was done. His peripherals were worse almost across the board than in 2014 — his only other full season — most notably posting an abysmal 16.5% HR/FB ratio, the sixth highest in baseball, to go along with just a 20.4% fly ball rate.
Grade: F
5. Christian Yelich will outperform Charlie Blackmon
This one is tricky, because while Yelich outproduced his ADP by a fair margin, Blackmon was a top-five outfielder— Yelich still cracked the top 15. I projected 15/25/.320, and he gave me 21/9/.298. He didn’t run nearly as much as expected, nor did he boost his batting average, but the 24-year-old enjoyed a solid season nonetheless. Yelich wasn’t a crazy ground ball hitter this year (56.5%, down from 62.5%), and his increased fly ball rate (20.0%) and his absurd HR/FB ratio (23.6%) helped him drive more balls over the fence.
I projected Blackmon to steal just 20 bases, and he finished with 17 (43 in 2015). I did not, however, expect the 29 HR or the .324 average. I was only half wrong here.
Grade: B-
6. George Springer is the most valuable of the three Astros
Yeah, no. Springer had a solid season. I had projected 30/20/.280, and he produced 29/9/.261. However, even if he had met my expectations, he still wouldn’t have been more valuable than Jose Altuve, who won the AL batting title (.338), swiped 30 bags and somehow smacked a career-high 24 homers. This quote (by me) about Altuve says is all: “it’s hard to believe he will replicate the 15 HR he hit last year.” Oops. I did expect Correa to endure some growing pains, which he did, and as a result I’m not giving myself an F.
Springer continued to cut down on his strikeouts, but he hit way too many ground balls. Most importantly, he lost his ability to steal bases (nine in 19 attempts) despite moving into Houston’s leadoff spot. He didn’t outproduce Altuve, and he certainly will not win AL MVP.
Grade: D-
7. Eric Hosmer finishes as a top-30 player
Hosmer entered June with a .330 batting average. By the end of July, that number was .280. He finished the year batting .266. He barely cracked the top 15 first basemen, so there was no chance he would be top-30 overall player. Depending on the league, he fell anywhere from 80 to 100.
Hosmer set career highs with 25 HR and 104 RBI, but his average dropped 31 points from 2015, his OBP dropped 35 points, and his slugging percentage somehow fell 26 points. His insane 58.9% ground ball rate was the second highest in baseball, and of the 19 qualified hitters to post a ground ball rate above 50%, Hosmer’s 16.5% line drive rate was the lowest. He landed in the bottom 10 in both FB% and LD%, and a ground ball hitter with limited speed is not going to hit very well. I projected 25/10/.310, and he gave me 25/5/.266. Hosmer clearly has the talent to become a top fantasy contributor, but he didn’t make the needed adjustments in 2016.
Grade: C+
8. Roberto Osuna finishes as a top-10 reliever
Osuna was widely being drafted outside the top 20 relief pitchers for his sophomore season, especially considering the apparent closer battle between him and Drew Storen. Not only did Osuna blow Storen out of the water, but he was one of the more effective closers in baseball for most of the season. He took a 2.24 ERA into the final two weeks before stumbling a bit across the finish line— he allowed six runs over his last 9.2 innings. Osuna finished the year with a 2.68 ERA, 32 SV and a 5.86 K/BB ratio, good enough for a top-eight spot.
Grade: A
9. Devon Travis is the No. 1 second baseman over the second half of the season
I really liked these young Blue Jays, huh? Post All-Star break, Travis slashed .321/.348/.462 with five homers, 33 R and 29 RBI. He finished the second half sixth among second basemen with 84 hits. He didn’t run as much as I expected, with just four steals in 410 AB, but his 11 HR shows that he does, in fact, have 15-homer potential. Of course, no one expected D.J. LeMahieu to hit .363 or Brian Dozier to smack 28 long balls in the second half, but Travis wouldn’t have been close to the top performer regardless. Not the craziest prediction, but certainly not one that became a reality.
Grade: C
10. Stephen Piscotty finishes outside the top 60 outfielders
Piscotty did not finish outside the top 60. In fact, he finished within the top 25. His batting average dropped from .305 to .273, and his BABIP fell from .372 to .319. Additionally, his ISO came down from .189 to .184, and his hard hit percentage dropped from 38.5% to 32.1%. Still, Piscotty managed 22 HR on a 13.5% HR/FB ratio after hitting just seven in 256 PA a year ago.
Grade: F
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