RADIO
During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now I can ask if I'm a Champ or a Chump. Let's find out!
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Grading the Predictions
1. Yasiel Puig Fails To Record 400 PAs
Puig was generally taken as a midrounder with upside in 2016 drafts, and I couldn't figure out why. I saw a player with no discernible talents and a Dodgers team loaded with OF depth, and speculated that the Dodgers would limit him to a fourth outfielder's role by the end of the year. The Dodgers went even further, demoting Puig to the minors after failing to trade him in July. He ended up recording 368 PAs, over which he disappointed owners with a .263/.323/.416 triple slash line with 11 bombs and five steals. Puig does not have the profile to sustain the elevated BABIP that carried him at first, and offers little power or speed to satisfy fantasy owners. Hopefully picking against him next year will no longer be bold. Grade: A
2. Steven Wright Will Matter In All Fantasy Formats
What exactly it means to "matter" is admittedly vague, but my analysis mentioned "double digit victories" and "league average ratios" that would make him a must own in deep formats while proving stream worthy in even shallow leagues. I also may have mentioned RA Dickey's Cy Young season, a prediction that looked perfectly reasonable when he had a 2.68 ERA in the first half. A shoulder injury slowed him after that, but his final line (13-6, 3.33 ERA) exceeded the predictions quoted above. To the delight of knuckleball fans everywhere, Wright has clearly established himself as an MLB-caliber starter. I'm 2 for 2! Grade: A+
3. Jose Peraza Records 500 PAs And Steals 40 Bases
Peraza registered only 256 PAs and 21 steals, so I missed the mark on this one. I thought the Reds would find a way to rid themselves of Brandon Phillips or let Peraza play in the OF, but Adam Duvall's emergence and Phillips's stubborn refusal to leave Cincinnati doomed Peraza to being a part time player. Still, his .324/.352/.411 line does nothing to dissuade me from liking Peraza next year, when 40 steals may not be bold enough. He was very effective when on the field, so I'll allow myself some credit here. Grade: C
4. Kevin Plawecki Will Record More PAs as a C Than Travis d'Arnaud
Plawecki recorded 148 PAs to his teammate's 250 as a catcher, so this prediction is wrong on the surface. It becomes even more wrong when you consider the analysis that went into it. I thought that TDA's bat was too valuable to sit, so the Mets would use him at first vs. LHP and to spell David Wright at third base. This would give him a Buster Posey amount of PAs while hiding his substandard glove at C. Unfortunately, last year's stellar line of .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers declined to just .247/.307/.323 with four this year in a similar number of PAs. Both his FB% (41.7% to 30.8%) and HR/FB (15% to 6.5%) declined to support TDA's lackluster totals. Meanwhile, Plawecki did absolutely nothing with the playing time opened up by more TDA health issues, as his .197/.298/.265 with a single dinger failed to help even NL-Only owners with two C slots to fill. Grade: F
5. Jarrod Dyson Will Be A Top 15 Outfielder
Sadly, Dyson was once again unable to escape the platoon role he's been shoehorned into. He compiled only 337 PAs, making it impossible to record Top 15 OF value. I didn't completely miss the boat, however, as 337 PAs is a new career best for playing time. His 30 SBs were also great for fantasy owners, and Dyson combined them with a respectable batting average for the first time in his career (.278). Almost anyone would say that the Royals hurt themselves by not exploring alternative options to Alcides Escobar in the leadoff slot, a decision that may have cost Dyson some counting stats. Like Peraza before him, this one gives me partial credit. Grade: C
6. Drew Storen Will Be A Top 10 Fantasy Closer
Oh dear God! Behold my worst bold prediction by far! Storen saw his strikeout rate collapse relative to 2015 (29.4% to 21.1%) while developing a bad case of gopheritis (14% HR/FB). The resulting 5.23 ERA was nowhere near enough to unseat young Roberto Ozuna from the closer's role in Toronto, and he finished with only three saves. An eventual trade to Seattle didn't help either, as his numbers were too poor to merit a second look when the Mariners started scrambling for a closer. Maybe he'll bounce back next year, but this prediction was an unmitigated disaster. Grade: F-
7. Atlanta Braves Pitchers Will Record More Saves Than Chicago Cubs Pitchers
The Braves were projected to be so terrible that many owners didn't bother to keep tabs on their unsettled ninth inning. The Cubs were projected to be the best team in baseball. I argued that even bad teams produce a useful number of save opportunities, while the Cubs might win by too much to produce a lot of saves. My analysis was right on the money, as Chicago's 38 saves paled in comparison to Atlanta's 39! Yes, I won this by one save. Lest you think that the small margin disproves my original analysis, I'll point out that I could have substituted the Phillies (43 saves), A's (42), Rays (also 42), or Brewers (46) as the bad team instead of the Braves and still won this prediction. Grade: A-
8. The Miami Marlins Will Win The NL East
Miami finished 79-82, 15.5 GB of division winning Washington. My sleeper team, intended to find overlooked Ws, busted big time. In my defense, Giancarlo Stanton must have set a Guinness world record for freak injuries by now, and no one saw an 80 game suspension for PEDs coming for Dee Gordon. I also expected one of the starters to step up as a #2 behind Jose Fernandez, but that did not happen either. The Fernandez tragedy easily transcends all of these issues in a way that goes well beyond baseball, and no one could blame the Marlins if it takes them multiple years to truly get over the shock. He will be sorely missed by all baseball fans. Grade: F
9. Stephen Strasburg Will Win NL Cy Young
Strasburg's 15-4 record will appeal to certain voters, and his excellent 30.6% K% suggests that it was not a fluke. However, an elbow injury limited him to just 147.2 IP this year, making his case for the award an inferior version of Clayton Kershaw's. His 3.60 ERA is also a tad high, even if a strong 2.92 FIP is hiding beneath it. Awards haven't been announced yet, but this is clearly a loss. His name isn't even brought up in the Cy debate. Washington's ace was very good when healthy, so I'll allow myself partial credit again. Grade: D+
10. Yangervis Solarte Will Matter In All Formats
I went with this vague prediction again, this time for a hitter. I speculated that Solarte could hit .290 with 20+ homers in 2016, as his BABIP was limited by a subpar LD% while his power was clearly trending upward. His .286/.341/.467 line with 15 HR in 443 PAs fell just short, but my analysis was mostly right. His LD% improved to a league average 21.9%, boosting his BABIP to .306 from .279 the year before. His prorated stats would also include 20 bombs over a full season. The Padres generally hit him cleanup, allowing Solarte to compile 71 RBI as well. With eligibility at first, second, and third heading into the season, he was probably an important injury replacement for somebody in every league, and he was clearly worth owning in deeper formats. I think I'm right here, but the vagueness of the original prediction hurts my grade a little. Grade: B
