RADIO
Several of my colleagues have already announced their Bold Predictions for the 2018 fantasy baseball season, and now it's my turn.
This is my third year participating in this exercise. The first one was great, as I correctly predicted Steven Wright would matter in 2016 fantasy leagues. The second one wasn't, as I had a .100 batting average.
This year, the vast majority of my picks are at least partially predicated on Statcast data. Let's see if they make me a champ or a chump in October!
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Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions for 2018
1. Mike Minor Will Win 15 Games Or Save 25
This prediction makes a big bet on Minor's talent while hedging on the role he'll occupy. He posted a 2.55 ERA and 28.7% K% over 77 2/3 IP as a reliever last year, and I'm betting that his stuff will work in the first or ninth.
If you need a refresher on his repertoire, it starts with a high-spin 4-seam fastball that generated an 11% SwStr% and .197 batting average against last year. His curve offers an excellent 18.1% SwStr% and 43.6% chase rate, making it an ideal put away pitch. His changeup is no slouch either (15.9% SwStr%, 47.7% Zone%), and his slider is solid for Ks (13.6% SwStr%) and even better at inducing ground balls (50.6% GB%). That is an arsenal I want to invest in!
2. Brad Hand Is The Best RP In Fantasy
Hand was great last year, posting a 2.16 ERA, 33.4% K%, and 21 saves over 79 1/3 IP. Like Minor, his arsenal starts with a high-spin fastball (12.4% SwStr%) to set up an elite slider (19.3% SwStr%). Nobody questions Hand's talent, instead worrying that the lowly Padres won't give him many save opportunities before trading him into a set-up role in July.
I disagree with both premises. The Pads have to win some games and don't have the offensive firepower to win them by a lot, so Hand will get early chances. He's also better than the projected closers on several contenders, including the Nationals, D-Backs, Cardinals, Twins, and even Astros. He will get his saves to accompany a low ERA and strong K totals.
3. Garrett Richards Wins The AL Cy Young Award
Richards hasn't pitched a full season since 2015, but his K% has been trending upward since then (20.4% to 23% to 25%). Once again, I'm betting on a high-spin fastball that boasted a 26.8% IFFB% in limited duty last year. Richards compliments it ably with a worthwhile sinker (led MLB in spin rate) and a slider with a filthy 21.8% SwStr% last year.
Cy Young voting still relies on old-fashioned stats, so the Angels infield defense plays a role in this prediction too. Andrelton Simmons (32 DRS) is beyond elite, and ex-shortstop Zack Cozart could crack double digits at the hot corner. Ian Kinsler (six DRS) is also very good, and Albert Pujols (-1 DRS in limited duty) can't possibly stay healthy enough to regularly field a position. Richards has a career GB% of 52.8%, so nobody is better positioned to take advantage of these gloves than he is.
4. Alex Bregman Fails To Hit 20 HR Or Steal 20 Bases
Bregman is being treated like a sure thing in fantasy drafts this Spring, but he has a lot of issues. He hits a lot of flies (39.9% FB% last year), but an ungodly number of them are of the pop-up variety (16.7% IFFB%). Thus, his airborne contact quality metrics are awful (4.7% rate of Brls/BBE, 91.7 mph average airborne exit velocity).
Bregman pilfered 17 bags last season, but only nine between multiple levels in 2016. He had 585 PAs that season, so he just didn't want to run much. He's also not that fast, clocking in at 27.5 ft./sec per Statcast's Sprint Speed metric. Steals are far from assured.
5. Carlos Correa Is Not A Top-10 SS
Speaking of overrated Astros, I have no idea why Correa is drafted where he is. His backers consistently bring up 30+ HR potential, but his low FB% numbers (31.7% last year, 27.4% career) make that virtually impossible. His average airborne exit velocity is plus (94.9 mph last year), but his rate of Brls/BBE (9.3%) is more good than great and he never pulls fly balls (12.3% last year, 13.8% career).
The rest of his game also has holes. Last year's .315 batting average was built on an unsustainable .331 BABIP on ground balls (.263 career) despite his lowest ground ball exit velocity in the Statcast Era (86.7 mph). His 27.7% chase rate isn't good enough to support last year's 11% BB%. He stopped stealing bases last year (two) after swiping 14 and 13 the previous two campaigns. Finally, there are so many good shortstops now that the bar for the top-10 is higher than it has ever been before.
6. Justin Verlander Posts An ERA Of 4.50 Or Above
I swear I didn't know how many Astros were on this list until just now! Regardless, Verlander has a great fastball (.207/.294/.313 line against last year, 28.2% IFFB%) but nothing else in his arsenal. His slider gets whiffs (17.6% SwStr%, 38.1% chase) but frequently winds up in the bleachers (38.1% FB%, 20.8% HR/FB), while his curve doesn't do much of anything (8.9% SwStr%, 43.8% Zone%, 29.1% chase rate).
Verlander is also a 35-year old coming off a season where his ERA (3.36) was much better than his xFIP (4.17) thanks to favorable LOB% (79.7%), HR/FB (11.5%), and BABIP (.271). If that's not a recipe for fantasy disaster, I don't know what is.
7. Jonathan Villar Will Lead The NL In SB
Villar is a forgotten man in fantasy after hitting .241 with 23 SB last year, but don't forget that he took 62 bags with a .285 average as recently as 2016. His K% surged to 30.3%, but the underlying metrics do not support it. He'll still strikeout too often, but even an improvement to 2016's 25.6% mark would do wonders for his average and SB opportunities.
There's also some room for positive BABIP regression here. Villar has a career BABIP on fly balls of .175, but that number plummeted to just .106 in 2017. Villar is one of the most volatile fantasy performers in recent memory, but he's cheap enough to be worth a gamble.
8. Giancarlo Stanton Sets New Career High In HR
Projecting Stanton to hit homers is far from bold, but he needs 60 or more for this prediction after last year's 59 HR explosion. Stanton cut his K% significantly last year (from 29.8% to 23.6%), putting more balls in play as a result. Statcast says that he murders balls in play, improving both his average airborne exit velocity (99.8 mph vs. 97 in 2016) and rate of Brls/BBE (17.4% vs. 16%) in 2017. He also pulled an insane number of fly balls (32.6% vs. 26.1% in 2016).
The move to Yankee Stadium will also boost Stanton's HR total. Yankee Stadium had a 112 HR Factor for RHB last year, per FanGraphs, while Marlins Park suppressed right-handed pop with a Ballpark Factor of 90. Kyle Bishop predicted the opposite of this in his piece, but his argument consisted of soft tissues and statistics of players not named Giancarlo Stanton. I'm not sure either is relevant.
9. The Boston Red Sox Fail To Reach The Postseason, But...
The Red Sox have a reputation as a super-team, but I don't see it. Catcher and first base are both unanswered questions, while Xander Bogaerts has proven that he can't hit for average (.273 last year), power (10 HR), steal bases (15), or field like an MLB-caliber shortstop (-11 DRS). Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. are league-average hitters at best, and Rafael Devers has a lot to prove before he's a superstar.
Their pitching is also problematic. David Price has a blood feud with seemingly the entire city, while the options behind him (Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, etc.) are just bad. The Yankees are the best team in baseball, so it's easy to project them as division favorites. Toronto and Tampa Bay could surprise if things break their way, with the Twins and the entire AL West also in play for a Wild Card berth.
10. Steven Wright Will Matter In Fantasy Again!
Sometimes you just have to go back to the well. A knee injury robbed Wright of his 2017 campaign, and a domestic abuse incident cast doubt on his 2018 availability. It looks like those charges will eventually be dropped, allowing Wright to begin the season as scheduled.
Wright went 13-6 with a 3.33 ERA over 156 2/3 IP in 2016, numbers that work in any format. His knuckler also had a 12.1% SwStr% that year, making it one of the best "fastballs" in the game. He'll need to ward off several uninspiring options behind him and avoid a return engagement on the DL, but the knuckleball is coming back in 2018!
