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Fantasy football is littered with risky propositions. There are injury-prone players, players who have rookies ready to steal their jobs or coaches ready to demote them on the depth chart, or players who lost valuable teammates in the offseason.
These guys might have great track records or might seem to have everything going for them heading into the season, but they could have trouble posting the numbers many are projecting for them. Below we take a look at a few such players for the 2016 fantasy football season.
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These Players Carry Some Risk in 2016
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (QB)
As long as Stafford has been in the league, he has had Calvin Johnson as his top target. “Megatron” was able to leap over double teams to haul in Stafford’s 50-yard heaves and make acrobatic catches that turned his quarterback’s worst passes into 25-yard gains. Unfortunately for Stafford, his security blanket retired during the offseason and left Detroit’s signal caller and his offense with a gaping hole to fill.
Detroit signed Marvin Jones in free agency, an athletic receiver whose claim to fame is that he had 10 touchdown receptions back in 2013. The Lions are also hoping tight end Eric Ebron and second-year pass catcher T.J. Jones can progress and become more reliable receivers. They will play along side the solid and sturdy Golden Tate rounding out their receiving corps.Will this be enough to make up for the loss of Johnson? You have to wonder when your eyes focus on Stafford’s name on your draft day cheat sheet.
Stafford has thrown for over 4,200 in each of the past five seasons, and he did not miss any games over that span after being tagged as injury-prone early on in his career. That sounds like a top-10 fantasy quarterback on paper, but without Johnson around for the first time in his career Stafford could be in for a subpar season.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (RB)
Stewart was instrumental in helping Cam Newton and Carolina Panthers win the NFC Championship and gain a berth into the Super Bowl. He rushed for 989 yards and 6 touchdowns in 13 games and had his best season since 2009 as he finally did not have to split time with longtime teammate DeAngelo Williams.
The biggest issue that has always held Stewart back is his lack of durability. He is no Brett Favre. He has a very breakable body, which does not suit his battering-ram running style. Stewart has missed 23 games over the past four seasons, even though he was in a backfield committee for most of that time. Last year he missed the final three games of the regular season when fantasy owners needed him the most AND was re-injured during the playoffs.
Stewart is slated to be Carolina’s top tailback again heading into the 2016 season. With no tangible threat lurking behind him on the depth chart, fantasy owners will probably target Stewart in the early draft rounds. However, banking on him is as risky as banking on J.J. Watt to score 10 touchdowns this season.
Matt Jones, Washington Redskins (RB)
Jones is one of the few running backs in the NFL who has no competition in his backfield. With Washington not re-signing Alfred Morris and not acquiring any veteran backs in the offseason, all Jones has backing him up are late-round picks or unproven guys picked up off the street. This makes fantasy football owners salivate about the numbers he could put up in 2016.
The problem is, while Jones is a talented runner, he had trouble holding onto the ball in his rookie season. He is not the guy you want carrying the priceless paintings if he is helping you move out of your house. He lost four fumbles last season, and subsequently lost playing time because of them. So his fumble fingers make him a risk because he is always just one turnover away from sitting on the bench. Jones is Stevan Ridley with more moves.
There is no denying that Jones has speed, skills and truckloads of potential. If everything breaks right – he stays healthy, he is able to be more secure with the ball, the Redskins run-block in front of him – Jones could rack up 1,300 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. And unless Clinton Portis comes out of retirement to steal the starting spot away, Jones will be Washington’s workhorse this season.
Jones has to learn to secure the football when he carries it, plus he also has to prove his body can withstand the workload of a running back who touches the ball 20 times per game takes since he was nicked up a couple times last year. This is why fantasy owners looking to draft Jones should go in with their eyes wide open.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos (WR)
Sanders stepped his game and his fantasy value up the last two seasons in Denver, recording back-to-back 1,000-yard years after being a role player with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Two of the main reasons for his success were having Demaryius Thomas being double-teamed on the opposite side, and Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.
But now that Manning has retired, Mark Sanchez is in. That changes everything. Sanchez has never been known to elevate the fantasy values of the receivers around him. His wobbly ducks and overthrows have never done his pass catchers any favors. His career 56.7 completion percentage proves he is one of the more inaccurate quarterbacks in the NFL.
Sanders has the hands to overcome some of the flaws of a mediocre quarterback. It is not like Manning was his Hall of Fame self last season, and Sanders still finished with 1,135 yards and six scores with Manning and Brock Osweiler tossing to him. But when defenses double Thomas and stack the box against the run this season, Sanchez or rookie Paxton Lynch will not be able to take advantage of the one-on-one coverage Sanders has like Manning did the past two years. Sanders slipping down to the 800-900-yard range in 2016 would not be a shocker … unless Manning or John Elway return to right the offense.
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