Late-Round NFL Rookie Draft Picks to Target: Fantasy Football Dynasty Discounts

As soon as the NFL Draft winds down, dynasty leagues kick into action. Many rookie drafts have already begun and some, including FFPC leagues, have already wrapped up. There are plenty of other leagues that prefer to wait until rookie mini-camps end or training camps approach in order to have more time to prepare. That also gives league members a chance to size up the dynasty landscape to see where this year's rookies are being valued.

The first-round picks are generally agreed upon with slight variation in terms of where exactly they'll fall. That said, not everyone can land Breece Hall or Drake London and not everyone is sold on Christian Watson or Kenneth Walker as a first-round value. Trading down is always an option but you'll probably have a hard time doing so in a relatively weak class where dynasty managers aren't eager to move up or sacrifice future picks for 2022 picks. Plus, any good dynasty team has to have some level of investment in a rookie class!

Regardless of your opinion on this year's crop of rookies, we know some early picks will bust and some players drafted late will turn into fantasy breakouts a la Elijah Mitchell last year. Who are those candidates this year?

Pierre Strong Jr., New England Patriots

Namesake aside, this is a running back I've got high hopes for despite his landing spot. Anyone who has played fantasy football at any point in the Bill Belichick era knows too well that fantasy fate is a fickle mistress with Pats RBs. One would think that the combo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who each averaged 4.6 yards per carry, along with the impending return of former Super Bowl shoulda been-MVP James White would be sufficient to make up this backfield in 2022. Apparently not.

The Patriots used not one but two draft picks to select rookie running backs in April. Kevin Harris out of South Carolina was taken in the sixth round and is considered a lotto-ticket flier type to make it in the league. The earlier pick was South Dakota St. RB Pierre Strong in the fourth round. Not many know his name but there's a reason he was taken just four picks after Isaiah Spiller and a full round earlier than accomplished college runners like Kyren Williams, Jerome Ford, and Tyler Allgeier.

Strong has blazing speed, as his NFL Combine performance showed, and averaged seven yards per carry in college.

He admittedly dominated against non-Power 5 competition but that matters less for running backs than at other skill positions. Strong's best asset might be his hands and ability to catch out of the backfield. Although James White is on track to return, he hasn't been fully cleared yet and may not be the preferred option if his hip injury hampers him or if the rookies simply play better. White is an UDFA in 2024 but the Pats will take zero dead cap hit if he's released after this season. Seems harsh but that's the Patriot Way, is it not?

Strong has seen his ADP climb up to 26 in FFPC rookie drafts, so while he is usually available past round two, he isn't hanging around much longer than that. While RBs like Dameon Pierce or Tyler Allgeier may have an easier path to touches, Strong is going to be behind a much better offensive line on a team that figures to be run-heavy yet again. Oh, and Damien Harris is set to hit free agency after this season so he'll likely be discarded for a younger model. The Patriot Way!

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

The Packers finally drafted a receiver early! Christian Watson is in the perfect landing spot, occupying a role where he can inherit some of the 169 targets left behind by Davante Adams. Obviously, he won't get nearly that many and may be lucky to sniff 100 given the fact he will have to acclimate to the pro game after playing at North Dakota State and earn Aaron Rodgers' trust as well. Unless you're buying into the Amari Rodgers preseason hype, that means there is an opportunity for another receiver to step up and make an impact. That player could be the other rookie they drafted in round four, Romeo Doubs.

Doubs isn't much better known beyond Mountain West fans because he played his college ball at Nevada. He had the benefit of catching passes from Carson Strong, who made Doubs his favorite receiver by far. Doubs hauled in 1,109 of the 4,175 yards Strong threw for in 2021; no other receiver even reached 700 that season. It was a continuation of 2020 when Doubs posted 1,002 receiving yards.

I think the #Packers got an absolute steal drafting Romeo Doubs in the 4th round at 132nd overall.

Doubs is coming off of back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons to go along with 26 career TDs.

Doubs can beat you deep and over the middle with no fear of catching balls in traffic. pic.twitter.com/Gp5k56RyCJ

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) May 4, 2022

Doubs stands 6'2" at 204 pounds and was able to run a 4.47 40 at his Pro Day that took place well after the combine because of a knee injury that hadn't healed. He doesn't quite match the 6'4" frame of departed speedster Marquez Valdes-Scantling and he might be a hair slower but Doubs would seem to be a pretty close replica. He doesn't have the freakish athleticism of Christian Watson either but he does have a more accomplished college career and has the chance to slide into a significant role if he shines in training camp. The biggest weakness he has shown is getting by man coverage consistently, so it remains to be seen how he fares against bigger, stronger corners.

While Watson will cost a mid-first to gamble on, Doubs is barely a third-rounder in rookie drafts and often available in the fourth. At that cost, even if all he becomes is the next MVS, it will have been worth the pick.

Velus Jones Jr., Chicago Bears

The disrespect is too real. Jones will be a 25-year-old rookie wide receiver and dynasty managers (and NFL Twitter) just can't get over it.

DJ Moore is entering his 5th NFL season in 2022

He is just one (1) month older than Velus Jones Jr

— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) May 2, 2022

Velus Jones is older than

DK Metcalf
A.J. Brown
Hollywood Brown

And one more younger than D.J. Moore

— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) May 2, 2022

In many rookie drafts, he simply gets ignored altogether because of it.

If you drafted in the 2022 @FFPC Rookie Drafts, check out post-draft player ownership in those leagues.

Many recognizable rookie names left undrafted in some of them after the dust settled including:

Tyquan Thornton
Velus Jones
Tyler Badie
Kenny Pickett

https://t.co/d5HEPBy7sW pic.twitter.com/OuJweO4Thq

— fantasymojo (@fantasymojo) May 24, 2022

Count me on the side that says his maturity will actually be a benefit to pro readiness. He doesn't need to have fantasy WR1 upside. Let's be real - few of the receivers in this class, or any for that matter, actually do.

Jones has a great shot to be one of the top targets in the Bears' offense and was drafted by them for that very reason. I asked Bears beat writer Kevin Fishbain about Jones' potential to make an impact in year one on SiriusXM RotoBaller Radio the other day and he was optimistic as well, stating that Jones could be third in line for targets behind Darnell Mooney and Byron Pringle.

What is most appealing about Jones is his breakaway speed. He'll be used as a kick returner off the bat but has a real shot to be the guy who takes the top off the defense. Although these are lofty expectations I'm about to put on him, Jones may wind up being the next Devin Hester in Chicago as a player who can take it to the house on any given play. Like Hester, he won't command a big target share but he won't need to either. Jones isn't a great bet to be a fixture in fantasy lineups going forward but those who play in best-ball formats should move him up several spots in draft rankings in order to reap the benefits of those smash games.

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens

Likely is one of the more athletic, receiver-first tight ends in this class but you wouldn't know it from his Combine numbers. He ran a disappointing 4.88 in the 40 and was subpar in everything except burst score. Where he stands out is college production, as he averaged 15.5 yards per reception and broke out at an early age. This came at Coastal Carolina, however, continuing the trend of smaller-school players being undervalued by the fantasy community.

Likely's dynasty ADP is 50th overall and fourth at tight end behind Trey McBride, Jelani Woods, and Greg Dulcich. Here's the catch - what if he isn't really a tight end?

I wondered during the #NFLDraft if #IsaiahLikely could be used as a big WR for the #Ravens, now I'm starting to hear murmers that may happen. I like the #dynasty value and TE premium fit for #fantasyfootball if they can make concentrated efforts to get him on the field.

— Chris G (@The_PreSnapRead) May 18, 2022

Likely was a lightly-recruited wide receiver coming out of high school and could enter the NFL as an oversized one. Just as Chase Claypool did two years ago, Likely has a real chance to convert to wideout to fill some of the void left behind by Marquise Brown. It makes too much sense, as the Ravens have Mark Andrews at tight end along with returning vet Nick Boyle and Charlie Kolar, who was drafted just ahead of Likely. Their WR depth chart has added nobody new through free agency or the draft, so splitting Likely out wide at times seems very... possible.

In a TE-premium format like FFPC, the upside Likely brings to the table is well worth a late rookie pick, especially in a class many consider the weakest in years.

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