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Welcome to the latest edition of RotoBaller’s Recently Promoted Prospects series for fantasy baseball! Here I discuss some recently promoted MLB prospects and rookies , making note of what I think their upside could be for fantasy baseball managers, and whether they are potential risers or fallers.
We have seen 87 rookies make their MLB debut in 2021. This week, we got two big-time debuts out of the Seattle Mariners organization - outfielder Jarred Kelenic and starting pitcher Logan Gilbert. I will highlight these two big-name prospects as well as some others to know for fantasy baseball and their projections. I will use video looks, scouting reports, analytics, and RotoBaller’s premium projections to predict what each player could do if given a continued opportunity in 2021.
Here are your recently promoted prospects for Week 7 of the fantasy baseball season.
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Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
78% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: This offseason, former Seattle Mariners President and CEO Kevin Mather resigned following some gross public comments at a Rotary Club function. Among the revelations from Mather was that the team essentially was holding Jarred Kelenic off the active roster until he either 1) accepted a team-friendly contract extension or 2) Kelenic spent enough time off the active roster for the club to secure an extra year of service time from the young star. Well, Kelenic held firm on point one, so when point two came to pass, the Mariners finally called him up, just like Mather said they were going to do. He should be Seattle's everyday centerfielder now and he lead off in his debut game on Thursday.
Skill: Coming out as a cold-weather prep in the 2018 draft, my only real question on Kelenic was whether he would develop plus power as a professional to go with his other above-average tools. Well one thing I didn't have a read on at that time was Kelenic's "sixth" tool, that unrelenting desire to improve as a baseball player. Kelenic has spent the offseasons since the 2018 draft working on his body at the training center that his dad built in Wisconsin, and it shows in his physique.
The power has jumped in pro ball, and Kelenic posted a 161 Estimated Barrel%+ as a teenager in full-season baseball in 2019. He launched two home runs in a six game Triple-A warmup lap to start 2021. The concern now is that the power gains might cut into some of his in-game speed, but I don't think you need to worry about that until five years from now. Kelenic is one of the few bonafide future five-category contributors in the game right now.
Projection: Our pre-season ATC projections gave Kelenic a .251/.316/.438 line with 17 home runs and 14 stolen bases over 468 PAs. This essentially makes him a $20 fantasy asset for 2021. I think this is a good baseline expectation for Kelenic's debut season, with an upside potential of .300 average, 25 HR, and 20 SBs. He's been stashed in most leagues already, but if he's available in yours he's worthy of a monster FAAB bid this weekend.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
48% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: As if calling up Jarred Kelenic wasn't enough of a treat for Mariners' fans this week, the team also called up it's top pitching prospect, Logan Gilbert. Like Kelenic, Gilbert was a first-round selection in the 2018 draft out of Stetson University, the same school which produced pitchers Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber. Gilbert made his MLB debut against Cleveland on Thursday, giving up four runs over four innings of work with five strikeouts.
Skill: Gilbert has been lauded for a repeatable, low effort delivery, which is impressive given his 6'6" frame. He's always displayed good control and solid command during his professional career. His fastball is a mid-90s four-seamer that can touch a tick or two higher at times. His primary breaking pitch is a slider, and he threw a number of slower 12-to-6 curveballs during his MLB debut as well. I don't think any of the pitches in his arsenal are plus, so he's going to have to rely on command and control to reach his full potential as a MLB starter.
Projection: Our preseason ATC projections had Gilbert posting a 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 43 innings, with a K/9 rate around 9.0. With the early call-up, Gilbert should eclipse that innings benchmark. If he does that while producing the skills projected by ATC, then he's a must-add in all formats.
Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins
3% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: The scuffling Twins offense pulled an emergency cord this week, calling up highly touted outfield prospect Trevor Larnach to take the starting rightfield job with Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff on the shelf. Larnach, a left-handed bat, was the Twins' first-round selection in the 2018 draft.
Skill: Larnach has been a run-producing bat all the way back to his time with the NCAA National Champion Oregon State Beavers club. His primary skill is an excellent batting eye and plate approach. He combines his approach with a solid hit tool, and he's been developing above-average power in his time as a professional. The total package means that Larnach should be able to hit at the Major League level.
Projection: Larnach didn't draw a pre-season ATC projection. FanGraphs Steamer projections give him a .254/.323/.403 projection for his rookie year. I'm expecting a triple-slash line more like .260/.350/.450, and if he can log 400 PAs he's got a shot at 15 home runs. Don't bank on much speed. This is a usable fantasy profile in all formats, so his 3% Yahoo ownership rate is a bit of a puzzler. He'd be a nice FAAB consolation prize this weekend in the event you miss out on Kelenic or Gilbert.
Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins
0% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: Nick Gordon is the son of former star MLB pitcher Tom Gordon. He was selected by the Twins in the 1st round of the 2014 MLB draft. He only appeared in one MLB game this week before being shuttled back down to the Triple-A St. Paul Saints.
Skill: I've long been a fan of Nick Gordon's game. He falls into the high Baseball IQ, grinder type of prospect that every organization needs. He's average to above-average at pretty much every facet of the game, with the speed to steal 10-15 bases in a full season. Defensively, he's a second baseman and can perform at an above-average to plus level at the keystone in the MLB.
Projection: Minnesota has plenty of options to handle 2B duties, so the team doesn't have a lot of urgency to keep Gordon up unless there's some kind of injury pinch they are dealing with. If he can win something like everyday playing time, he could be a cheap steals source for your fantasy squad without killing your batting average.
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