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Welcome to the latest edition of RotoBaller’s Recently Promoted Prospects series for fantasy baseball! Here I discuss some recently promoted MLB prospects and rookies , making note of what I think their upside could be for fantasy baseball managers, and whether they are potential risers or fallers.
We have seen 95 rookies make their MLB debut in 2021. Last week, we got two big-time debuts out of the Seattle Mariners organization - outfielder Jarred Kelenic and starting pitcher Logan Gilbert. This week, the Tampa Bay Rays put the prospect stashing world on edge by trading Willy Adames to Milwaukee on Friday night. I will use video looks, scouting reports, analytics, and RotoBaller’s premium projections to predict what each recently called-up player could do if given a continued opportunity in 2021.
Here are your recently promoted prospects for Week 8 of the fantasy baseball season.
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Taylor Walls, Tampa Bay Rays
3% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: Tampa Bay tried sticking with 25 year-old shortstop Willy Adames despite his early season struggles. Adames looked like he was starting to turn things around, but the Rays had seen enough of his .197 batting average and .254 OBP. Trading Adames became a no brainer given the talent the Rays had assembled at Triple-A Durham this year. Despite prospect hounds craving a Wander Franco or Vidal Brujan call-up, it is the Rays OTHER super talented switch-hitting shortstop prospect, Taylor Walls, that gets the first crack at the starting shortstop gig.
Skill: Walls was off to a fantastic start at Triple-A Durham so far this season, slashing .327/.468/.490. My Estimated Barrel% metric had him posting an estimated 10.5% barrel rate in 2021. Looking at my Estimated xwOBA metric, Walls posted an even more productive .377 xwOBA estimate at Triple-A. His patience at the dish is fantastic, he flashes enough power to drive some home runs, and his speed is good enough to impact games and steal some bags. Then, Walls adds in a fantastic glove at shortstop. It's a profile that screams everyday player, and I expect Walls to hold down the Rays' vacant shortstop position.
Projection: Walls didn't draw a preseason ATC projection. The public projections on FanGraphs have him posting an OPS in the .650 territory. I understand the conservative nature of their projection process, but I think that's light. I'd give him an OPS projection in the .730 range, with the upside potential to chip in both double digit steals and home runs over the remainder of the season. He should be rostered in any league where Willy Adames is currently rostered.
Luis Barrera, Oakland Athletics
0% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: Oakland OF prospect Luis Barrera was called up ahead of Oakland's game with the Astros on Tuesday. He's likely going to fill a left-handed bench bat/4th outfielder role with Oakland for the rest of the season. He will need something like an extended injury to work his way into something approximating full playing time.
Skill: Barrera, 25, has really hit at the upper levels of the minors with Oakland over the past few seasons. In his brief Triple-A stint in 2021, Barrera posted a 10.7% Estimated Barrel% and a .359 Estimated xwOBA. He can get a little pulled groundball heavy at times, so MLB teams will punish that with shifting. As that's the case, I would also anticipate that he will have a hard time recreating his Triple-A power output at the highest level.
Projection: I'm not expecting much out of Barrera in 2021 unless someone in front of him in the Oakland outfield goes down with injury. In the unlikely event that he gets full playing time, Barrera has the talent to add 5-10 home runs and 5-10 stolen bases to your fantasy squad. However, he doesn't need to be owned outside of the deepest formats until he can secure more playing time.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
0% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: Bailey Ober was called-up to make a spot start for the free-falling Twins this week. He's since been shuttled back down to Triple-A.
Skill: It is really hard to find an ERA estimator that doesn't like Bailey Ober's historical performance as a starting pitcher. My Estimated Runs Allowed is an ERA estimator that relies solely on K%, BB%, and GB%. It thought that Ober was one of the top pitching prospects in all of the minors during the 2019 season. Ober utilizes his 6'9" frame to produce elite extension, averaging 7.2 feet of extension on his fastball during his MLB debut. He combines that extension with great control and good command. He's a future innings eater at the MLB level.
Projection: Unfortunately Ober was sent back down after his spot start, so you won't be able to rely on him for fantasy production yet in 2021. However, monitor him in deeper leagues. If he's brought back up for a spot start later on in the season, he can be a productive arm for your fantasy squad in the right matchup.
Johneshwy Fargas, New York Mets
0% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: Like a bolt out of the blue, Johneshwy Fargas was called-up to fill in the outfield for an injury-depleted New York Mets roster this week. Fargas, 26, is a journeyman who was initially drafted by the Giants in the 11th round of the 2013 draft.
Skill: Fargas hasn't been a consistently above-average offensive performer in the minor leagues since A-ball in 2016. However, his one cool trick for fantasy relevance is his speed. We don't have enough data for a Sprint Speed rating from Baseball Savant yet, but Fargas went 8-for-8 in stolen base attempts at Triple-A this year. In 2019, Fargas stole 50 bases in 73 attempts in Double-A.
Projection: Fargas is probably worth rostering right now if you're in need of stolen bases. He has the kind of speed to flip the SB category for your team in a weekly head-to-head matchup. Long term, I don't think he has the offensive talent to be a positive contributor at the MLB level. So, use him now if you've got him rostered in a deep format.
Khalil Lee, New York Mets
1% Rostered on Yahoo
Situation: The Mets injury situation is so bad right now that they've called up both Johneswhy Fargas and Khalil Lee to get regular at-bats at the MLB level. Lee, 22, is a left-handed hitting outfielder that came over to the Mets in the deal that sent Andrew Benintendi to Kansas City and Franchy Cordero to Boston.
Skill: Lee flashed a tantalizing speed/power combination early on in his minor league career, but as he's advanced levels, he's increasingly struggled to hit for power. I put his Estimated Barrel% at Triple-A in 2021 as a meager 3.8%. However, because of his ability to work counts and draw walks, his Estimated xwOBA rate at Triple-A was a more usable .322. Lee also has morphed into an elite-base stealer in the minors, going 53-for-65 in stolen base attempts at Double-A in 2019. He might not have top of scale speed, but he has enough to chip in some stolen bases even against MLB backstops.
Projection: Lee is a better bet to contribute at the MLB level than Fargas. He's a better hitter with a better plate approach. And he has the ability to be as productive in the SB category as Fargas. However, his time in the Bigs is going to come to an end when the Mets outfield gets healthy again. Because he's likely to spend the majority of the 2021 season in Triple-A, Lee can be safely ignored outside of very deep formats.
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