RADIO
Each year we see a handful of incoming rookie WRs finish as a WR2 or better in fantasy football. While the best rookies are typically those who are drafted in the first round (Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Jefferson, Ja’Mar Chase), there are also numerous recent examples of Day 2 and 3 picks who also had great rookie seasons (A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St. Brown).
In this article, I’ll just be covering each of the WRs that were drafted in Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Read up on Rookie Running Backs from Rounds 2-3 and Round 4 RBs impacting their teams as well.
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Atlanta Falcons: Drake London (Pick #8)
Drake London, who played three seasons at USC before declaring for the 2022 NFL Draft, stands at 6’5 210 lb and is the clear best contested-catch prospect in this draft class. He now joins Mike Evans, Calvin Johnson, and Plaxico Burress as the only WRs listed at 6’5 or taller to be drafted in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. Based on my comparisons between offensive environments, I’m going to focus on Mike Evans.
When he was drafted, Evans joined a Buccaneers squad that was facing 260 vacated targets. He would also be standing opposite Vincent Jackson, another 6’5 receiver who had the seventh-highest YPRR before Evans was drafted. Furthermore, Evans’ rookie year QBs were Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, who combined to throw for just 3600 YDs and 21 TDs. Nonetheless, despite dealing with terrible QBs and playing on the opposite of an equally skilled and massive receiver, Mike Evans stepped in right away, commanding 122 targets on a 23.4% team target share.
Now, as a rookie, Drake London is joining a Falcons squad that is facing 295 vacated targets. London will also be standing opposite Kyle Pitts, a 6’6 tight end who is mainly used as a receiver, as he saw the highest YPRR of any player in the entire league last season. Furthermore, Drake London will have to play with Marcus Mariota as his QB in his first year in Atlanta. While he’s not great, I have no doubts that Mariota could easily reach ~3200 YDs and 20 TDs.
To recap, we’ve already seen a rookie Mike Evans produce as a fantasy WR1 with terrible QB play alongside another massive receiver, and there is no reason to believe that Drake London can’t follow a similar path to relevance in Atlanta. Kyle Pitts should maintain the same alpha role he had last season, but London could easily command 100+ targets as a rookie in this offense desperate for receiving threats. The team’s other WRs include names such as Olamide Zaccheaus, Bryan Edwards, and Auden Tate, and should all remain undrafted in most leagues.
New York Jets: Garrett Wilson (Pick #10)
Throughout all three of Garrett Wilson’s seasons at Ohio State, he played alongside 11th overall pick Chris Olave. In 2021, Wilson posted a 70-1060-12 stat line, compared to Olave’s 65-940-13. Wilson also had 4 rushing attempts for 76 rush YDs and 1 rush TD. Garrett Wilson is capable of performing with other talented WRs, and he should have no problem continuing to produce alongside Elijah Moore and Corey Davis in New York. Before both suffered season-ending injuries in Week 13 last season, Moore commanded a 17.5% target share while Davis saw a share of 13.4%.
While people may not realize it, injuries forced the Jets spread the ball around a lot last season. Not a single player was able to surpass even 80 targets, while seven different players earned 50 or more targets. This includes WRs such as Jamison Crowder (who is now in Buffalo), Braxton Berrios (who saw 45% of his total targets after Week 13), and Keelan Cole (who saw 65% of his total targets in games without Davis). Two RBs also reached this mark, Michael Carter (who earned 14 targets in one game with backup QB Mike White), and Ty Johnson (who saw 22% of his total targets in games without Carter). There is a clear opportunity for an elite talent like Garrett Wilson to take over the Jets' receiving game.
Heading into the 2022 season, I expect to see Wilson and Moore each command around 15-20% of the team’s targets, while Davis sees closer to 10-15%. As for the other positional groups, the RBs should earn about 20% of the team’s total targets again, while their TEs will likely sit around 15%. This leaves the remaining ~15% of the team’s target share to be split among names like Braxton Berrios, Denzel Mims, and Jeff Smith.
New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (Pick #11)
Chris Olave was highly regarded by most draft analysts as one of the best route-running prospects in this class. Olave played all four seasons at Ohio State, commanding targets alongside 10th overall pick Garrett Wilson through his final 3 years. As stated above, in 2021, Olave posted a 65-940-13 stat line compared to Wilson’s 70-1060-12. Chris Olave is capable of performing with other talented WRs, and he should have no problem continuing to produce in New Orleans.
The Saints’ current depth chart includes names like Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Deonte Harty. Furthermore, considering recent reports suggesting that Michael Thomas is doubtful for minicamp, Olave will likely just be competing with Jarvis Landry for the main target in this offense. Landry recently signed a 1-year, $3M fully guaranteed deal with the Saints, but I’m not sure this contract truly represents how good he’s been performing at 29 years old. Landry was still highly efficient last season, finishing in the top-10 in the NFL in targets per route run, yards per route run, and expected fantasy points per route run. Despite his relatively low-valued contract, I still expect Jarvis Landry to play an important role in the Saints’ offense this season.
If Michael Thomas plays this season – which I don’t expect to happen – he will remain the unquestioned alpha on this team. However, the more likely scenario is Thomas doesn’t suit up this season, in which case Landry and Olave should each earn about 15-20% of the team’s total target share. Star running back Alvin Kamara will command a 20-25% share, while another 10-15% will go to their TE group. The remaining ~20% target share will be divided among their lower-tier WRs such as Callaway, Smith, and Harty.
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams (Pick #12)
Jameson Williams, a breakout WR at Alabama who at one point was projected to be the first receiver drafted in this class, suffered an ACL tear during the national championship game. This injury tanked Williams’ draft value, but he was still clearly regarded as a top-15 prospect in this class. However, considering that he’ll be just 8 months removed from the torn ACL come Week 1, there’s a good chance that we see Jameson Williams have a slow start to his rookie season. Recent reports seem to suggest that the Lions do not expect him to be ready for training camp.
In Detroit, Williams will be competing for targets alongside some notable names, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, T.J. Hockenson, and D’Andre Swift. For some added context on their receivers, ARSB commanded 11.2 targets per game over his final six games of 2021, and Chark has earned a steady 7.3 targets/gm throughout each of the past three seasons. Furthermore, during each of their 12 healthy games last year, Hockenson had 7 targets/gm, while Swift saw 6.25 targets/gm.
As you can tell, Jameson Williams has some massive target competition to overcome. In 2022, I expect to see ARSB command a 20%+ target share, while Williams, Chark, Hockenson, and Swift all sit around ~15%. The remaining 15% or so target share will be split between names like Josh Reynolds, Quintez Cephus, and Kalif Raymond.
Washington Commanders: Jahan Dotson (Pick #16)
Jahan Dotson was regarded by many as having the best hands in this draft class. Now, he is joining a Washington Commanders squad that already has an elite young receiver in Terry McLaurin, who commanded (no pun intended) a 24.3% team target share in 2021, as well as a 23.4% share in 2020. Despite the team’s recent investment into Dotson, I still expect to see McLaurin continue to dominate the team’s targets next season. However, that doesn’t mean there is no opportunity for the Penn State star to produce in his rookie year.
Heading into the 2022 season, the Commanders are facing 160 vacated targets, and Washington needs a reliable second option alongside McLaurin. We already saw the team invest heavily into Curtis Samuel last offseason, and he was never able to stay on the field for even 40% of snaps. Dotson is a far better prospect, and he should have no problem beating Samuel out as the team’s second option during training camp.
With a clear lack of talent alongside their star WR, we will likely see McLaurin command around a 20-25% target share again while Dotson earns around 15-20%. Each of their RB and TE groups should make up another 20%, and the remaining ~20% will likely be divided between names such as Curtis Samuel, Cam Sims, Dyami Brown, and Dax Milne.
Tennessee Titans: Treylon Burks (Pick #18)
After contract talks allegedly fell through with their star receiver, the Titans were forced to ship A.J. Brown to the Eagles in exchange for the 18th overall pick, which they ultimately used on Treylon Burks. This meant that Burks, the 6’3, 225 lb WR who was earning comparisons to Brown leading up to the draft, was ironically selected to become his direct replacement in Tennesee. Furthermore, since A.J. Brown’s style of play translated perfectly to Tennesee’s scheme, you could assume that Treylon Burks might see similar immediate success.
Burks does not have much target competition to deal with in Tennesee. The Titans’ current depth chart includes 30-year-old Robert Woods coming off a torn ACL, former UDFA Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and a few recent late picks like Dez Fitzpatrick, Racey McCath, and Kyle Philips, who likely won’t play much at all this season. Robert Woods will be 11 months removed from his ACL injury, so I do expect to see him on the field come Week 1. However, it’s also important to point out that despite him averaging nearly 60 YPG over the past two seasons, Woods was shipped to Tennessee for just a sixth-round pick. Based on the Rams' asking price, it’s very unlikely that Robert Woods will be the same player that we saw pre-injury. As for Westbrook-Ikhine, last season he could only put up 34 YPG without A.J. Brown, and 28 YPG in games with Brown. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will not be a large part of the Titans’ offensive plans unless Burks or Woods miss time.
With all the similarities between the two’s prospect profiles, it is entirely reasonable to have a similar projection for Treylon Burks as we saw in A.J. Brown’s rookie year. In 2019, Brown had over 50 receptions, over 1000 YDs, and 8 TDs as a rookie, and there is no reason to believe that Burks can’t put up these numbers in this same offense in 2022.
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