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Rookie wide receivers tend to be really hit or miss in fantasy football. Last year was definitely a "hit" year, as Ja'Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle had explosive seasons.
This season...well, I think we should temper our expectations just a little bit about this class of rookie wideouts. There's plenty of talent, but Chase and Waddle were in ideal situations.
Still, there are a handful of rookie receivers who'll make an impact this season. Let's break down some of them.
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Drake London - Atlanta Falcons
I felt really good about London before the preseason, but a knee issue kept us from really getting a chance to see him on the field.
The bright side of this for fantasy? We've seen a dip in London's ADP. Per Fantasy Data, London's ADP on August 15th was 128.4. On August 29th, it was 136.8. He's going almost a round later now than he was before.
While the injury concern is real, one thing hasn't changed for London: he plays for a Falcons team with no real weapons at wide receiver. Sure, Kyle Pitts might be an elite TE and Cordarelle Patterson is a good pass-catching back, but London still projects to be the starter in Atlanta, and has WR3/4 upside even in a limited passing offense solely because of the percentage of the targets he should see.
Chris Olave - New Orleans Saints
Olave didn't do a ton this preseason, as he was targeted just four times.
There's a difference between Alex Pierce and Skyy Moore getting four targets and Olave getting four targets. He did his while running 19 routes, while Pierce ran 27 and Moore ran 35. What this suggests to me: the Saints didn't need to see Olave out on the field much.
Olave is projected to start opposite Michael Thomas. One of two things seems true: either Thomas is healthy and draws attention away from Olave, who'll eat as the No. 2 option or Thomas is hurt and the Saints are forced to make Olave their No. 1.
Either way, he feels like the best rookie receiver to target in fantasy. London might have a bigger role in terms of target share, but the Saints will be a much more pass-happy offense with Jameis Winston under center, giving Olave WR3 upside.
Garrett Wilson - New York Jets
Garrett Wilson had a pretty productive preseason:
Wilson really pops when you see him on tape:
He's a polished route runner who played inside and outside at Ohio State, though he moved to more of a slot role after his freshman season.
And a slot role is something this team needs. Last season, Jamison Crowder played 436 snaps in the slot per The 33rd Team. He's gone. Braxton Berrios played 312 snaps and while he's not gone, he lacks so much of what makes Wilson so intriguing.
Elijah Moore was just fifth on the team in slot snaps last year. Judging by that, I think we see Moore on the outside more, opening up underneath routes for Wilson, who should be a big part of this offense. I view him as an intriguing WR4.
Jalen Tolbert - Dallas Cowboys
Tolbert is interesting because we don't really know what's up with Michael Gallup:
It sounds like Gallup will be ready earlier than expected, but do really know that?
This is why I like Tolbert as an early-season play. You might wind up dropping him by midseason due to Gallup's return, but until then, Tolbert should be on the field plenty in an offense that likes to throw. Dak Prescott was ninth in the NFL in passing attempts last year despite missing a game, and he was fifth in completions.
While there's chatter that Noah Brown has earned the No. 2 role—
—I'm just not so sure about that. Brown is entering his fifth season—if we don't count 2019 when he didn't play—and has never had more than 25 targets in a season. The idea that a 26-year-old Noah Brown suddenly becomes a thing feels farfetched to me.
If I'm looking for production early in the season from a non-CeeDee Lamb receiver in Dallas, why am I supposed to look at Brown and not Tolbert?
When Tolbert was on the field this preseason, he was getting looked at:
He's getting knocked, though, because he didn't do much with those preseason looks:
Should I hold that against him? Maybe! But I just think if I'm throwing a dart, it should be at the guy who had 82 catches for 1,474 yards and eight touchdowns in college last year and not Noah Brown, whose entire NFL career consists of 39 receptions.
Kyle Phillips - Tennessee Titans
Every year, there's some rookie receiver who comes out of left field to have a strong season. Last season, no one really expected fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown to be third among rookie wideouts in fantasy points, or for Jauan Jennings to catch five touchdowns. In 2020, Gabriel Davis was a fourth-rounder and caught seven touchdowns, and fifth-rounder Darnell Mooney saw 98 targets with the Bears.
Kyle Phillips was taken in the fifth by the Titans. The 5-11 receiver caught 10 touchdowns last season and finished the year with 59 catches for 739 yards.
The expectation seems to be that Phillips will play the slot. He was effective from there at UCLA last year:
Per The 33rd Team, Ryan Tannehill's accuracy within 10 yards ranked 11th out of the 41 quarterbacks to take 200 or more snaps. Tannehill's downfield accuracy has regressed, but he should still be able to get the ball to the slot guy in the short passing game, opening up a chance for Phillips to make a quick impact on the field. He's someone you should be looking at deep in drafts.
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