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If you’re a regular reader of RotoBaller (and how could someone as smart, funny, and handsome as you not be?), you’ve doubtless already checked out our rankings assistant tool. We'll be releasing our final update next week.
With draft season ramping up now, though, it seems like a good time to check our expert opinions against the wisdom of the crowds. Over the next several days, we’ll highlight players with notable discrepancies between their ADP and how the staff here at RotoBaller views their 2016 value. Today we take a look at shortstops.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros. Quoted figures are the players’ ranking at their position and not their overall ADP.
Shortstops We Prefer
ADP: 17th | RB Rank: 14th | My rank: 14th
Breaking into the majors last season at only 21 years of age, Marte produced a .283/.351/.402 line with eight stolen bases in 247 plate appearances. During his minor league career, he established himself as a speedy, high-average hitter. One particularly encouraging development was a BB% just shy of double digits, though the projection systems don’t appear to believe in that figure as they all have him in the 6% range. That could jeopardize his spot atop the Mariners order, but if he stays there, he should be an asset in runs in addition to steals and average.
ADP: 23rd | RB Rank: 13th | My rank 11th
Semien started and finished strong last season, but was unplayable during the middle stretch. Ultimately, though, he showed improvement across the board from his rookie year, making higher quality contact and hitting for more power while cutting his strikeout rate substantially. The only other shortstops who hit 15 homers and stole more than 10 bases: Carlos Correa and Ian Desmond. Assuming he can avoid a prolonged slump this time around, 35 HR+SB is a distinct possibility. Semien committed a whopping 35 errors last season, more than any other shortstop this millennium. He’s still eligible there, though, and Athletics’ only other options at the position are Jed Lowrie (no fielding whiz himself and injury-prone) and Eric Sogard, who is terrible.
ADP: 35th | RB Rank: 12th | My rank: 9th
The yawning chasm between our opinion of Suarez and that of the fans is easily the largest of any player in baseball. Given that he’s coming off a season in which he hit .280 with 13 homers and totaled 90 R+RBI in only 97 games, it’s a confusing one. While Brad Johnson and I are driving the Suarez bandwagon with top-10 ranks, nobody else on staff has him lower than 16th. Maybe fantasy owners aren’t buying the power, or are concerned about his lousy plate discipline metrics. These are valid concerns, but Suarez showed much better plate discipline in the minors and increased power in the last two years. He may experience some BABIP regression if he continues to run whiff rates in the vicinity of 25%, but his pop should play.
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