RADIO
It's April and the 2022 NFL Draft is right around the corner, which means it's time to start firing up those fantasy football takes. In this article, we'll highlight three running backs who could break out this season. But what does it really mean to "break out?" Well, we're obviously not going to discuss the top-12 running backs by early 2022 average draft position (ADP). Saying that Javonte Williams is going to break out won't do anybody any good.
Instead, we're attempting to identify those mid-round picks that could explode onto the scene and become top-tier options. We're looking for players with certain qualities, on certain types of offenses, that have a chance to return massive value compared to their ADP.
As mentioned, this specific article will be focusing on the running back position. So far, here at RotoBaller, Rob Lorge (@RobFFSlayer) has already highlighted breakouts at the other three positions: Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
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Michael Carter, New York Jets
As a rookie, Carter found himself in somewhat of a timeshare on a young offense led by a rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson and a rookie head coach in Robert Saleh. It also didn’t help that former first-round OT Mekhi Becton injured his knee in Week 1 and went on to miss the remainder of the season. The cards were stacked against this team from day one, but that didn’t stop Carter from making the most of his opportunities.
Carter saw a 50% snap share in just eight of 14 games played; however, his median output in those games was a respectable 12.6 PPR points per game. If you increase the threshold to a 70% snap share, Carter saw that type of workload in just three games. In those three games, he churned out an average of 21 PPR points per game. He may not average 21 points per game in his second season, but he’ll likely fall somewhere between 12.6 and 21. Believe it or not, 16 PPR points per game in 2021 would have been good for RB11. Not bad!
But these are hypotheticals, why should we expect better production and more opportunities for Carter in 2022? Well, a couple of reasons. First, this offense should be much improved from a season ago. Wilson and Elijah Moore both enter their second season, Corey Davis should be healthy, and the Jets added some nice pieces in the offseason. They signed Pro Bowl G Laken Tomlinson and tight ends Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah, two willing and able blockers. With Becton likely to return, the Jets' offensive line becomes one of the best in football. It’s clear that management is doing whatever it takes to run a more efficient offense. There should be more holes created in 2022 for Carter to run through, like this one:
Second, Carter actually played very well as a rookie despite missing three full games and playing sparingly in three others. He was fifth amongst all running backs with 15 missed tackles forced as a receiver. Per PlayerProfiler, Carter was also 12th in yards created per touch (3.27), 13th in yards per touch (5.3), and 11th in juke rate (30.1%). In his 11 full games played, Carter garnered 56.1% of the red zone carries for the Jets. While he may not have the top-end speed fantasy managers desire in a successful tailback, he's got the pass-catching prowess to make up for it. Per PlayerProfiler, Carter's best comp is Devonta Freeman, who himself finished as a top-six back in both 2015 and 2016 as a result of his touchdown totals and high volume of targets.
While there's definitely a chance New York takes a running back with one of their seven picks in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft, they have more pressing needs than at the running back position. If they don't select a top back, Carter easily becomes one of the biggest winners post-draft.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Now that Urban Meyer is out and Doug Pederson is in, we're basically looking at a hard reset in Jacksonville. There's no sugar-coating it, Trevor Lawrence was abysmal as a rookie, completing just 59.6% of his passes for 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. He threw multiple touchdowns in just two of 17 games. Even though he fell very short of the high expectations put on a generational talent as the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, we'll chalk it up to organizational issues during his rookie season. Pederson, who won a Super Bowl with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017-18, will undoubtedly bring structure and maximize player potential right out of the gate. That goes for Lawrence, as well as the healthiest, most electric running back on the roster, Travis Etienne.
Etienne missed his entire rookie season after suffering a Lisfranc injury during a preseason game vs. the New Orleans Saints. But even he acknowledged if there was ever a season to miss, it was last season.
During the same interview, Etienne told reporters he's about 85-90% recovered right now. He's participating in most workouts and is able to run at full speed. Meanwhile, James Robinson, who suffered a torn Achilles in Week 16 of the 2021 season, may not be back on the field in any capacity until training camp. Even if he were cleared to play in Week 1, the chances he'd be at full speed are slim to none, according to most NFL injury experts. According to RotoBaller's own, @SportsMedAnalytics, Robinson may not be 100% until 15 months post-injury, which would be sometime in 2023. Essentially, all this to say Etienne should be close to 100% come Week 1, while Robinson's timeline is much more of an unknown, with a few more hurdles to jump.
So why will Etienne break out in 2022 after not playing a single snap in 2021? A few reasons come to mind. First, Robinson's injury, as discussed, should open the door for an immediate three-down role for Etienne. Second, because of his ability as a pass-catcher, he likely won't come off the field on obvious passing downs, which can't be said for more than just a handful of running backs these days (and we all know by now targets are generally worth more fantasy points than carries). Third, the offense as a whole should be much improved. The Jaguars made it a point to bring in some firepower on offense. They added pass-catchers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, while also bolstering the offensive line by adding All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff. And finally, if Robinson, an undrafted free agent, could average 14 PPR fantasy points per game (in 12 fully healthy games) a season ago in a putrid offense led by Meyer, imagine what a first-round talent in Etienne could do in a much better situation.
According to PlayerProfiler, Etienne's best comparable is Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift. Both guys are around 5'10", 210 lbs, have similar metrics, and possess a similar skill set. Through two seasons, Swift has 135 targets to 265 carries. 33.8% of his opportunities have come through the air. We could see something similar for Etienne, who figures to be utilized as a pass-catcher early and often. The Lions won just three games a season ago, which led to Swift seeing six targets per game. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jaguars are projected to win just six games in 2022. There will be plenty of negative game scripts for Etienne to thrive from a fantasy perspective.
In college, Etienne rushed for 4,952 yards and 70 touchdowns and caught 102 balls for another 1,155 yards and eight touchdowns on 128 targets. He averaged a whopping 7.2 yards per carry and 11.3 yards per reception in his four years at Clemson. However, it wasn't until his Junior year in 2019 that he started being utilized as a pass-catcher, and he thrived in that role. Recall, in 2019 and 2020 combined, the Tigers lost just three of 27 games. And in their 24 wins, just five would have been considered "close" or within 20 points. In those eight games (three losses and five "close" wins), Etienne averaged 4.8 receptions for 70.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 5.5 targets per game. It's highly likely the Jaguars find themselves in more negative game scripts than positive game scripts in 2022, which bodes really well for a guy like Etienne who excels as a pass-catcher.
He's currently just the RB28 in FantasyPros' latest Expert Consensus Ranking, but if James Robinson is forced to miss a bunch of games to start the season, we could realistically be looking at a top-12 fantasy running back in Travis Etienne this season.
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins completely revamped their team this offseason. They hired offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel as their head coach, signed Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, and then traded for Tyreek Hill. They've clearly made it a priority to surround Tua Tagovailoa with as many speedy weapons as possible. But who's going to be the "lead" guy out of the backfield between Edmonds, Mostert, and Myles Gaskin? Let's dive in.
On March 14, Edmonds was given a two-year, $12.6M contract. Two days later, the Dolphins signed 30-year-old Mostert to a one-year, $3.125M. The new regime under McDaniels decided to pay two new backs despite having Gaskin on the roster. That doesn't bode well for Gaskin's chances of seeing meaningful playing time in 2022.
Now, Mostert could very well get the first carry or two of the season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's the better of the two options between him and Edmonds from a fantasy football perspective. In fact, he's almost assuredly not the better option. Mostert has missed 25 games the past two seasons. In his two full seasons as a starter in San Francisco, he averaged 10 carries and 1.7 targets per game. In comparison, in Edmonds' last two years as a full-time player in Arizona, he averaged 7.6 carries and 4.3 targets per game, while missing just five games. Since carries are worth approximately 0.58 points each and targets are worth approximately 1.58 PPR points each, Edmonds' advantage comes in the form of his usage as a pass-catcher. Not just that, the $12.6M contract speaks volumes to how the Dolphins feel about his potential role in the offense. And when you look at how good he was in 2021 on third down, there's a reason they paid that kind of money for Edmonds in free agency.
McDaniels' 49ers scored 24 points per game last season, which ranked 15th in the NFL. That compares to just 20.1 points scored per game for the Dolphins a season ago. With McDaniel at the helm and Tyreek Hill now opposite Jaylen Waddle, Miami's offense should be much improved and much more explosive this season. That bodes really well for Edmonds, who is a very underrated, explosive running back.
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