Veteran Running Backs Due for Regression in 2022 Fantasy Football

The life of an NFL running back can come at you fast. There may be no other position in professional football that changes so quickly and so profoundly. Two years ago, Christian McCaffrey was one of the greatest fantasy football running backs of all time. Fast forward to 2022, and there are some people who are out on him at cost because of his injury concerns. I wouldn’t recommend that, but it’s happening. In 2018, Saquon Barkley was the offensive rookie of the year. The next great running back. Now in 2022, the word “bust” is being thrown around and he’s just barely a top-20 running back entering the young season. Surely, we don’t also need a history lesson on the sudden changes of Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, and David Johnson. Could Ezekiel Elliott be the next to join that list?

The point of all of this is to say, when it comes to running backs, the only thing we can be certain of is uncertainty. It’s one of the few positions where fifth-round rookies and later seem to become fantasy relevant as routinely as running backs do. Chris Carson, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, and Elijah Mitchell just to name a few. Every year, once free agency and the NFL Draft officially close their books for another year, fantasy managers begin to look for who were the biggest winners and the biggest losers.

We especially do this at running back because life moves a little bit faster for that position. With that being said, who are some veteran running backs fantasy managers should be expecting to see fewer touches this season? Let’s get to it.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

Much to the dismay of fantasy managers everywhere, the Commanders simply do not seem to want to give Gibson the workload the vast majority of the fantasy community believes he’s entitled to. Sadly, for those who seem intent on holding onto the dream of Antonio Gibson as a three-down back, they are not the ones in control. The offseason moves by Washington should give fantasy managers no reason to believe Gibson’s role is to expand in 2022. In fact, their offseason moves indicate he might actually have fewer touches in 2022.

During free agency, reports started to swirl that J.D. McKissic was going to leave Washington and sign with the Buffalo Bills. Dollars and years came out with the report. It was a done deal, right? Unfortunately, for Bills fans and Gibson enthusiasts, it was not. McKissic changed his mind and instead ended up resigning in Washington. Why is this a big deal?

Well, for starters, when the rumors broke of McKissic signing in Buffalo, if you are to believe Buffalo general manager, Billy Beane, Washington didn’t lay off. All’s fair in love and football though, am I right? But in Mr. Beane’s opinion, this was an agreed-upon deal, a handshake agreement if you will because the deal could not be finalized yet. No one should be surprised to find out that Washington owner Daniel Snyder does not share those same morals.

Of course, at this time, it’s fair to wonder if Snyder indeed has any morals, but that’s neither here nor there. The fact is Washington did not lay off and in the end, McKissic changed his mind. Washington wanted McKissic back. If you’re looking for a reason to believe Gibson may get more third-down work and targets in 2022, we are officially not off on the right foot.

Why I'm OUT on Antonio Gibson in redrafts, THREAD ?

▫️Read between the lines
▫️Crowded RB room
▫️Buoyed by touchdowns
▫️Inflated price

?️Summary#FantasyFootball

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 4, 2022

Last year, McKissic solidly outplayed Gibson in the receiving department. Gibson actually out-targeted McKissic on the year in 2021, but it should be noted McKissic missed six games of action, while Gibson missed just one. Despite the extra work, Gibson still found himself behind McKissic in terms of receiving by over 100 yards. McKissic averaged 2.2 more yards per catch than Gibson and that wasn’t the only metric that displayed just how thoroughly McKissic outplayed Gibson as a receiver. McKissic was targeted on 19.3% of his routes, a fairly healthy rate for a running back. Gibson was targeted on just 17.3% of his. In fact, Gibson finished the season with 43 more routes run, so a good bit of extra opportunity and he simply wasn’t able to cash in.

Interestingly, despite the popular opinion of Gibson being a maven in the open field, it was McKissic who had the higher number of yards after the catch, 391 to 350. Their averages show an even greater discrepancy as McKissic averaged 9.1 yards after the catch per reception to Gibson’s 8.3. And finally, as if all of those stats didn't indicate McKissic’s value in the passing game, this one should absolutely slam the door shut. McKissic averaged 1.81 yards per route run compared to Gibson’s 1.19. Washington wanted McKissic back for a reason and that reason is simple – he’s a much better receiver and third-down running back than Gibson is.

That alone shouldn’t be a death sentence or a reason to fade Gibson though. After all, McKissic was in the yellow and burgundy last season and Gibson still finished as the RB10 overall and RB18 in terms of PPG. He’s still a high-end RB2, right? Washington’s draft has now at least put that notion up for debate. Washington needed some reinforcements on the offensive line and their defense needed help. They ranked 25th in points allowed and their secondary was absolutely gashed. They allowed the fourth-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Despite that, their third pick in the NFL Draft was not a cornerback. It wasn’t a safety or a linebacker or an offensive lineman either. It was a running back. Most notably, Brian Robinson out of Alabama.

He finished his super-senior season with 1,343 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Rolling Tide with a five-yard per carry average. He’s a big guy, weighing in at 225 pounds, and ran a very good 4.53 forty, considering his size. He posted an excellent 8.18 Relative Athletic Score (RAS). Fantasy managers shouldn’t be expecting Robinson to take over Gibson’s role as the starter, but is he going to be involved? Yeah, you should be expecting him to be involved.

Maybe a good comparison of what this backfield might look like in 2022 is the second half for the New England Patriots. They split the early-down work between Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, and had James White been healthy, he would’ve been the third-down back. This still leaves Gibson as the 1A, but there are a lot of questions surrounding his pathway to a repeat, 300-touch season.

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

This one is a no-brainer. Gaskin averaged 18 touches per game in 2020 with four coming way of receptions. In 2021, that number dropped to 13 touches per game. Folks, it’s going to bottom out completely in 2022. There’s a new regime taking over and they wasted no time in adding some more talent to their running back position. Chase Edmonds was signed away from the Arizona Cardinals and new head coach Mike McDaniel brought Raheem Mostert over with him from San Francisco.

Edmonds averaged 13 touches per game of his own last year and the last time we saw Mostert with the 49ers in 2020, he was averaging 15 touches per game. Assuming Mostert is healthy, which has been a fairly big question mark, Edmonds and Mostert seem poised to lead this backfield in some kind of 1A/1B rotation. Fantasy managers should expect Edmonds to be the primary starter in an attempt to keep Mostert’s touches down and keep him healthy for the long haul. For Gaskin, this will leave very little work left over for him to nibble on. In the event Mostert does get hurt, fantasy managers should expect Edmonds to handle a bit more work with the remaining touches to be spread out between Gerrid Doaks, Salvon Ahmed, and Gaskin.

The bigger problem for Gaskin isn’t that they added a running back, it’s the kind of running back they added. Gaskin displayed some pass-catching chops out of the backfield and had the Dolphins signed someone like Ronald Jones II instead of Edmonds, his path to touches would have been a bit easier to see. That’s because Ronald Jones brings almost nothing to the table as a pass-catcher, but has shown the ability to run in-between the tackles. That’s not what the Dolphins did, however.

They added Edmonds, who is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, one who is much more talented than Gaskin in that regard. Gaskin has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry so that is not where his strengths lie. With Edmonds being in town and being a better pass-catcher than he is, it’s going to be very difficult for Gaskin to see any meaningful snaps, much less touches in 2022. He should be completely off the redraft radar.

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Rashaad Penny finally showed us something. It only took about three and a half years. Up until Week 13, Penny was RB108. That is not a typo. He had 11 half-PPR points to his name in five games of action. 2.2 PPG. Then in Week 14, Penny finally showed fantasy managers a glimpse of what made the Seahawks take him in the first round all of those years ago. From Weeks 14-18, he wasn’t just an RB1, he was the RB1. In the last five weeks of the season, he racked up 107.7 points and averaged 21.5 PPG. This is, no doubt, the stretch that everyone remembers. I mean, to be fair, it was kind of hard to forget, but we need to be reasonable here. That last five-week stretch is NOT at all repeatable.

During those last five games, Penny averaged 19.4 touches per game. This would have ranked as the ninth-highest touches per game average last season. This is not at all sustainable and this stretch of games is what many people are now associating with Penny and it’s a dangerous game. In the three and half years prior, Penny has never averaged more than seven touches per game. There’s no denying the fact that when Penny has been healthy, he’s been an effective runner. As a rookie, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry. In Year Two, he averaged 5.7, and just last year, that average went up even higher. He finished 2021 with the best yard per carry average among running backs.

There is potential here. The Seahawks have always been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL under Pete Carroll and with the trade of Russell Wilson, that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. One of the other things you could always count on from a Pete Carroll-led team was a bad offensive line, but the Seahawks drafted a left tackle in the top-10 in Charles Cross and another behemoth of a man in the third round to play right tackle, Abraham Lucas. The offensive line, at least on paper, appears to be one of the stronger units the Seahawks have had in recent years. You’ll notice I skipped from the first round to the third round when talking about who the Seahawks drafted. That’s because in the second round they drafted running back Kenneth Walker III out of Michigan State.

Walker played his first two collegiate seasons at Wake Forest and as a true freshman, he racked up 579 yards on 98 carries and four touchdowns. As a sophomore, he finished with the exact same yardage, but his touchdowns shot up to 13. He transferred to Michigan State for his junior season and absolutely exploded. He received 263 carries and turned them into 1,636 yards. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored 18 times. He ended up being the second running back off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft. Walker’s second-round draft capital is historically been a very strong indicator he’s going to play and receive his fair share of touches, especially at running back. There’s maybe no position where collegiate players are ready for NFL action on Day One more than running back.

If there’s one silver lining, at least for Penny, it’s that Pete Carroll has thrown that draft capital aside in the past. In fact, it wasn’t all that long ago that he started a second-year, seventh-round draft prospect ahead of a first-round rookie. Well, I guess that’s a bit of a double-edged sword as it relates to a pro-Penny argument because you see, Penny was that first-round rookie who was unable to beat out a seventh-round draft pick. Not just as a rookie either. Penny played behind seventh-rounder Chris Carson for four straight seasons. If there’s one thing that is an absolute guarantee, however, it’s that Penny’s five-week stretch to end the season will not repeat itself. Fantasy managers need to be prepared for the possibility of his 19.4 touch average from Weeks 14–18 being cut in half.

The Seahawks’ running backs averaged just under 24 touches per game last season. Those touches are most likely going to be split three ways because Walker and Penny offer virtually nothing in the passing game. In three years of college, Walker recorded a total of 19 catches. That is it. He just doesn’t have the profile of someone who is likely going to come into the NFL as a rookie and be used in the passing game very often. As far as Penny, his receiving upside may look even worse than Walker’s, if you can imagine that and that’s because we have actual NFL data for him. In four seasons, Penny averages 0.8 targets and 0.6 receptions per game. Needless to say, expecting too much from either of these running backs in the passing game is likely wishful thinking.

Last season, Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas were the leading target getters on the Seahawks roster. Dallas had 23 and Homer was at 20. The most likely scenario for the Seahawks' backfield this upcoming season is a two-way split between early-down work and passing-down work. Walker and Penny will split the majority of the carries on early downs while Dallas and Homer split third-downs and the passing game work. What that means is that Walker and Penny are likely looking at splitting about 20-22 touches per game. If it’s a 50/50 split, Penny is looking at losing 7-9 touches from his final five games of the 2021 season.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

Going into the 2021 season, Zack Moss was the running back to roster for the Buffalo Bills. He was younger than Singletary and had the higher draft capital as a third-rounder. Welp… that’s not exactly how the season ended playing out. In fact, down the home stretch, Singletary was operating as the de facto No. 1 running back for the Bills. I mean, he was their guy. From Weeks 12–18, this was not a committee and Singletary showed he could play. During that stretch, he was the RB6 and averaged 14.3 half-PPR PPG. He also averaged 17.1 touches per game. The next closest was Moss with 6.5. That’s certainly not a 1A and 1B situation. That’s a there’s Devin Singletary and then there’s everyone else kind of situation. So what changed?

Remember Antonio Gibson from up above? Well, the Bills wanted J.D. McKissic, and when he backed out of their deal, the Bills went out and drafted James Cook in the second round. Cook wasn’t known as a great runner in college. In fact, he had just one season where he had more than 700 yards on the ground.

At 199 pounds, it’s probably not realistic to expect him to become this first and second down, in-between the tackles kind of runner, but what he could do was catch the ball. He finished his college career with 67 receptions for 730 yards and six touchdowns. The other thing that Cook brings to the backfield is speed and that’s something Singletary and Moss simply cannot compete with when it comes to Cook. He ran a blazing 4.42 forty along with elite numbers in the 20-yard and 10-yard split. Cook posted an 8.76 Relative Athletic Score (RAS). For comparison, Singletary ran the forty in 4.66 and posted a 1.77 RAS. Needless to say, we’re looking at two totally different sides of the athletic spectrum.

Last season the Bills’ running backs combined for 91 targets and caught 70 of them. Singletary accounted for 50 targets and 40 receptions. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Cook comes in and handles the majority of the passing work for the Bills’ backfield. Among running backs who received at least 40 targets last season, Singletary finished dead last out of 35 qualifying running backs in yards per route run with a measly 0.61 average. That’s an area Cook could come in and be a big factor right away. While fantasy managers have every reason to expect Singletary to lead this backfield again in 2022 – he’s earned that much – it’s unlikely he sees anything close to the 17.1 touches he had the last seven weeks of the seasons when he was the RB6. Losing some of his passing work may not result in a big number in terms of his total touches, but targets and receptions are such a big component of running back scoring.

The biggest area of concern as it relates to Singletary is his touchdown rate. In Year One, he averaged one rushing touchdown every 75 carries. That stayed mostly the same in Year Two when he averaged a touchdown for every 78 carries, but this past year, he averaged a touchdown every 27 carries. That’s a substantial increase and fantasy managers expecting that kind of efficiency in 2022 may be disappointed. That kind of big shift has a way of reverting back to the mean. Between the possible dip in targets and receptions and a likely decrease in touchdown rate, Singletary is one running back to be cautious of entering the new season.

Michael Carter, New York Jets

No running back took a bigger hit this offseason than Michael Carter. I know what you’re thinking though – what about Javonte Williams? Sure, Williams had top-five upside without Melvin Gordon, but he’s still entrenched as a high-end RB2 and should be viewed as a top-15 running back after his rookie season. Carter went from being a solid RB2, especially in PPR leagues, to someone who could be completely phased out of the offense. Is that too harsh? I’m not sure it is.

While the perception is that Carter was the preferred pass-catching back in New York, that wasn’t exactly the case. Ty Johnson and Carter split those duties almost 50/50. Johnson actually finished with 53 targets to Carter’s 50. Johnson also finished with more receiving yards, 372 to 325. Johnson also held the edge in yards per reception with 10.9 compared to Carter’s 9.0.

Maybe more relevant than any of those stats is the fact that Johnson ran more routes than Carter, 326 to 279. Their yard per route run average was also extremely close, but here Carter took a slight advantage. Carter averaged 1.48 to Johnson’s 1.45, but as you can see, this was far from a Carter-led backfield in terms of pass-catching ability. Could Hall actually come in and become a three-down back for the Jets? I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.

Pour one out for Michael Carter ?

Hall is an RB2 here for me, but he does bring RB1 upside. Carter will have a role, but this makes him merely a depth RB for fantasy purposes https://t.co/65lmqBT9me

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 29, 2022

We already know Hall is going to take the early-down work away from Johnson and Carter. The two former backs are both smaller backs who struggled on the ground last season. On the flip side, Hall is fresh off back-to-back seasons at Iowa State of 1,400+ rushing yards and 41 combined touchdowns. In three years as a Cyclone, Hall amassed 3,941 rushing yards and finished with a 5.5-yard per carry average. There shouldn’t be any question about who leads this team in carries in 2022. Carter had 147 rush attempts last season and it’s fair to expect that number to drop closer to 100, but the real question is what happens with the passing work?

Targets and receptions are incredibly important for any running back in PPR scoring and if Carter is able to become the third-down back for the Jets, he’ll yet hold value. If that’s the case, this backfield could like similar to the Commanders’ one from last season with Hall playing the Antonio Gibson role and Carter filling in as McKissic. At this point, that’s literally the best-case scenario for Carter, but it’s far from a guarantee. The chart below shows the collegiate totals from Carter’s four years at North Carolina and Hall’s three years at Iowa State.

As you can see, Hall more than held his own against Carter in most categories except for yards per route run. Still, Hall is not entering the NFL ranks with almost zero pass-catching ability on his resume like Walker out of Michigan State. Fantasy managers should be prepared for Hall to take complete control of this backfield in a manner that Jonathan Taylor did for the Colts his rookie season. Nyheim Hines played a role early in the season, but down the stretch, it was the Jonathan Taylor show. That’s not to say Hall will be as good as Jonathan Taylor, just that Hall could end up taking over his backfield in a similar way that Taylor did in his rookie season.

Carter finished the season with 183 total touches last season and now with Hall in New York, there’s no question that number is going to come down. The only question left to be answered is how far is the fall?

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