RADIO
Last week's Warning Signals piece primarily focused on players who fall closer to RB2 status than a high-end RB1. Looking ahead to Week 14 and the first round of the fantasy playoffs, there are two players in particular that have been reliable RB1s for most of the season that now warrant our attention. I'm speaking of course about Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman.
I had alluded to their respective issues in last week's intro, mostly because Gurley only really had one bad game and Freeman was dealing with an injury. Fast-forward to the playoff picture and there really isn't much more time to wait around for fantasy studs to get back to their superstar form. You would think that there'd be a lot more questions concerning borderline starters than reliable assets yet here we are facing a sliver of panic when it matters most.
And speaking of borderline starters, I also threw in one player who could have been a decent flex option for you down the stretch but is now dealing with a workload issue. I suppose you can call this week a mixed bag of a fantasy discussion. Either way, here's hoping that you've managed to weather the storm into the playoffs.
Running Backs Sending Out Warning Signals
Todd Gurley – RB, CIN
Just like most fantasy analysts and owners, I shrugged off Todd Gurley's weak outing against the Cincinnati Bengals a few weeks ago since it was his only poor showing since becoming the full-time starter. The assumption was that his lack of production in that particular game could be attributed to the fact that the Rams were blown out in that game 31-7, forcing the team into catch-up mode. Unfortunately for St. Louis, they were treated to yet another big loss against the Arizona Cardinals this past week. That nets us with back-to-back disappointing performances from Gurley.
Over that stretch, Gurley has just 18 total carries for 60 yards and zero touchdowns. Compare that to virtually any of his previous games and those numbers are a huge let-down. Again, blowout losses pretty much force an offense to throw their traditional strategy out the window, so it's within the realm of possibility that these games being one after the other is purely coincidence. Having said that, it can't be ignored that this is happening so close to the fantasy playoffs. The scariest part about this is that the Rams don't have that favorable of a schedule down the stretch either. Their next three contests are against the Lions, Buccaneers and Seahawks, all three of whom have above-average run defenses. Both Tampa Bay and Seattle rank in the top-10 in rushing defense and the Lions are playing considerably better defense as of late. This makes for a worrisome playoff slate for a player who had been fairly consistent once becoming the starter.
As you're about to see when we discuss Devonta Freeman, I'm not entering full panic mode on either of these two studs. What I do want to point out, however, is that Gurley shouldn't be viewed as an automatic starter right now. I know that sounds like sacrilege given how awesome he's been this year but there are plenty of scenarios where Gurley could be the odd man out of your fantasy lineup.
Devonta Freeman – RB, ATL
Freeman was knocked out of Atlanta's matchup with the Colts a few weeks ago, a game in which he was off to a hot start with three carries for 43 yards. He then missed the following game against the Vikings before returning to face Tampa Bay. In that very game against the Buccaneers, Freeman had just 14 carries for 47 yards, a big drop-off from what we saw him do earlier this year.
If you dig deeper, you'll find that it was more than just some rust after being on the shelf from two weeks. Rewind back to Freeman's last game before suffering a concussion and you'd notice that he only had 12 carries for 12 yards against San Francisco. That makes it four straight games where Freeman has hurt you, either due to performance or injury.
Here's a real-life scenario that you could easily be experiencing yourself come playoff time. I play in a keeper league where one of the playoff-bound owners has been fortunate enough to own Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Devonta Freeman, and DeAngelo Williams. Since you can only start three running backs, one of those four has to be on the bench during a playoff matchup. This is exactly what I mean when I say struggling assets like Freeman and Gurley are no longer automatic starters; if you were fortunate enough to acquire serious RB depth you're going to be faced with tough decisions. Personally, I'd roll with the hot hand and weigh the matchups. Both Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte have been solid (one bad game for AP and injuries aside for Forte) and Williams has been excellent as well. In that particular scenario, Freeman would be on the pine, especially against Carolina.
In short, you're typically going to start your studs but don't just blindly handcuff yourself to names without actually evaluating recent production. Even from a flex perspective you might have three awesome wide receivers worth playing over a hit-or-mess running back. Winning the playoffs is all about balancing your superstars while also not over thinking what got you there in the first place.
Alfred Blue – RB, HOU
Admittedly, Blue is nowhere near the automatic starter status as some of the players we've already touched upon but he's certainly worthy of flex consideration given the right matchup. However, Chris Polk ate into Blue's workload considerably on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. Blue had just four carries for 14 yards compared to Polk's outing of 12 for 61. That's a huge swing in scheme for an offense that has traditionally utilized one back at a time.
It's really tough to rely on someone like Blue in the first place given the fact that he's not an explosive playmaker, nor has he racked up considerable volume while filling in for Arian Foster. Still, he was the presumed starting running back on a team that had some quarterback issues. That gave him some added value for fantasy purposes. Now, it's looking like this could turn more into a timeshare so I would avoid this situation if you can. Granted, if you were already relying on Blue then I'd have to assume your team is strong enough to compete regardless.
Updates From Last Week
Mark Ingram – RB, NO
Unfortunately for Mark Ingram he's now headed to the IR with a season-ending shoulder injury. That's a real shame for a guy who had been receiving the bulk of the work in New Orleans. C.J. Spiller and Tim Hightower instantly become must-adds, in that order.
Latavius Murray – RB, OAK
Latavius Murray managed to find the endzone during Sunday's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, salvaging his fantasy outing. While it once appeared as if Murray could flirt with low-end RB1 status, he's back to being locked into the mid-range RB2 grouping. He's a fine player who is going to get virtually all of the carries in Oakland so you should be able to use him in the playoffs regardless of matchup.
LeGarrette Blount – RB, NE
As usual the New England Patriots managed to rotate in another new running back during their shocking loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. James White exploded for over 100 yards, nearly all of which came via the pass. Still, the Pats simply refuse to rely on one particular back so it's tough to rely on Blount in a win-or-go-home scenario. They have decent enough matchups where he'll be worth considering starting, so it'll really just depend on who else you have at this point.
Lamar Miller – RB, MIA
Lamar Miller finally got a big uptick in touches on Sunday, something that had been holding him back in terms of fantasy. On more than one occasion I have said that as along as the Dolphins commit to Miller he's a legitimate high-end RB2 with RB1 potential. I find it hard to believe that a team like Miami (who is somehow still in the playoff hunt with an interim coach) will phone it in for the remainder of the year, so you should expect the offense to go back to leaning on their star running back.
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