RADIO
CURRENT ADP: 32.3
RANKING STATUS: Overvalued
ANALYSIS: The Ryan Braun before the steroid suspension and the Ryan Braun after are two completely different players. Prior to 2013, fantasy owners could expect a .300+ batting average, 30 home runs, 100+ RBI, and double digit stolen base totals. The owner of a career .306/.368/.550 slash line, Braun saw career lows in every statistic in 2014 with a .266/.324/.453 including a mere 19 HR, 81 RBI, 68 R, and 11 stolen bases.
In 2012, Braun put up numbers that made him easily a top three outfielder, but has since shown a decline in power and a reduction in solid contact ability. He had put up above average numbers in line drive rate and fly ball rate until 2014 when both of those numbers for him were below league average. Those low batted ball numbers contributed to a low BABIP (.304 in 2014 compared to his .336 career) which will make it unlikely for him to bat .300 again. And while he dealt with a thumb injury for much of the season, he is nearing the end of his prime (now at age 31) and one could argue that his earlier production may have been the result of performance enhancing drugs.
Another concerning fact is that his contact rate has gone down to 78.6% (league average being 79.4%) and his chase rate has gone up to 39.0% (league average is 31.3%). As he starts to get older, Braun’s bat speed will go down and he will strikeout more frequently because of his tendency to chase pitches outside the zone.
Ryan Braun will get plenty of playing time and should bat over .260 this season, but don’t expect anything close to the MVP-level production that he used to put up.
