Ryan Kelly (Forward) - Waiver Wire Analysis

Ryan Kelly is a young forward for the Lakers, currently filling in as starter in place of Pau Gasol, out with a groin injury.  Kelly stands to keep the role– or at least a significant share of it– for the rest of the year if the rumors of Gasol being traded to a contender come true.

Kelly is a stretch forward who can provide threes from the PF position, but I think where he could really shine as a fantasy player in a full-time role is in FT%.  He’s currently hitting an outstanding 86.2% of his free throws, with great volume given his playing time– 4.3 FT per 36 minutes.  With 30+ minutes a game at those rates, his positive contribution to FT% would be barely less than Dirk Nowitzki’s, with twice as much impact as a low-volume guard like Jameer Nelson.

Finding good volume FT% like Kelly’s on the free agent list is extremely rare, because most players who draw a good volume of free throws are stars whom other teams foul more often because they’re harder to defend.  I don’t know how Kelly has drawn so many or how sustainable that is, but it’s impressive and valuable in fantasy play. He’s a situational pickup, but one that could be uniquely valuable in the right situation.