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The 2021 MLB regular season is less than one month away, so it’s time for some bold predictions. Last year’s bold predictions didn’t pan out too well for me; if we’re being generous, two out of the ten predictions hit -- and that’s including Corey Kluber posting a sub-3.00 ERA (which technically happened, even if it came in only one inning).
Granted, bold prediction articles probably shouldn’t have hit rates much higher than 20%. Part of the fun around these kinds of articles is that the predictions are extreme, and extreme predictions don’t pan out very often.
Still, bold predictions can be helpful guides that provide fantasy managers with player analysis that they may not have previously considered. With that in mind, below are my 10 bold predictions for the 2021 season.
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Chad Pinder Posts an OPS Above .850
Pinder’s 2020 surface-level performance won’t blow anyone away, but he quietly posted a solid .326 xwOBA and made some significant adjustments. Notably, Pinder worked to improve his plate approach, leading to a career-low shadow zone swing rate and a career-high swing rate at pitches in the heart of the zone. As a result, Pinder posted the best z-contact rate of his career at 91.5%, and it’s plausible that his z-contact rate stays above 90% in 2021. Combined with his typically solid contact quality (.423 xwOBAcon for his career), Pinder could end up among a strong group of hitters to post a z-contact rate above 90% and an xwOBAcon above .400 in 2021.
Qualified batters with an xwOBAcon of at least .400 and a z-contact rate of at least 90%, 2015-20
The less performance-related issue for Pinder in 2021 is his playing time. Pinder currently projects to be a utility option off of the bench for the A’s, but between his defensive versatility and (potentially) valuable offensive production, the A’s should manage to find at least semi-consistent playing time for him in 2021.
Emmanuel Clase Gets More Saves Than James Karinchak
In many ways, Clase and Karinchak profile similarly to each other; both pitchers boast 80-grade fastballs that reach triple-digits that they pair with effective sliders, and both pitchers struggle to limit free passes. Clase missed the entire 2020 season while serving a PED-related suspension, though, while Karinchak heads into the 2021 season as Cleveland’s presumed primary closer.
As easy as it is to dream on Karinchak thanks to his tantalizing arsenal, it’s not hard to imagine the wheels coming off of his 2021 season either. Walk-happy closers come with a high degree of risk, and closers with walk rates north of 14% very rarely collect many saves. Clase also comes with that concern after posting a 3.3 BB/9 over his minor league career, but all it takes for this prediction to be correct is for a little to go wrong with Karinchak and a little to go right with Clase, so I’m comfortable standing by it.
Carter Kieboom is a Top-Three Hitter on the Nats by Batting Average
Kieboom has struggled so far in his major-league career with a .541 OPS over 44 games, but he still has a strong prospect pedigree and underwent LASIK surgery this offseason. Research is somewhat inconclusive on whether or not (and how much) LASIK helps hitters improve, but the surgery very likely has a positive effect, and it’s not too hard to think of examples of hitters (like Wilson Ramos) who clearly benefited substantially from LASIK.
Surgery aside, Kieboom is still a former top-25 prospect who boasts an advanced plate approach and serviceable power, giving him plenty of upside for a 2021 breakout. This prediction may be a little conservative based on the Nationals roster with that in mind, but it’s tough to project much more from Kieboom at this point and still represents a significant difference from what is generally expected from Kieboom in 2021.
Evan White Hits at Least 35 Home Runs
White had no problem crushing the ball when he made contact last season, posting an impressive 52.5% hard-hit rate to go along with a similarly strong 14.1% barrel rate. Those numbers contrast fairly sharply with White’s actual production, as he posted a relatively mediocre four percent home-run rate, putting him on pace for only 22 home runs over a 162-game season. That makes White a notable outlier when comparing barrel-rate to home runs, on-par with J.D. Martinez’s 2016 when he posted a 14.2% barrel rate and 22 home runs.
An ugly 41.6% strikeout rate fueled White’s underperformance, but White displayed better plate discipline during his minor-league career and would benefit substantially from being more aggressive at the plate (particularly against pitches inside of the strike zone). It’s a stretch to see White maintain his 2020 power output while improving his plate approach enough to eclipse 35 home runs, but his elite power ability makes it possible.
Nick Pivetta Posts Best ERA in Boston's Rotation
Nick Pivetta seems to make his way onto breakout and bold prediction articles every year, but this year is different (famous last words, I know). Pivetta has generated positive buzz all spring as he’s reportedly added velocity and revamped his mechanics, and that should excite fantasy managers.
From a raw “stuff” perspective, Pivetta is an undeniably exciting pitcher; his fastball touches the upper-90s mph, and he pairs it with a strong high-spin curveball. Of course, that arsenal hasn’t done much for Pivetta so far in his career -- his best season came in 2018 when he posted a 4.77 ERA and a 3.79 FIP -- but his offseason adjustments seem promising and give him a chance to lead a relatively weak Boston rotation in ERA this season.
Michael Wacha Posts a Strikeout Rate Over 30%
If the other predictions in this article weren’t bold enough for your tastes, this one should help balance the article out. Wacha has never posted a strikeout rate above 25% in a season for his career, and projection systems universally expect him to strike out less than a batter per inning in 2021. Wacha’s changeup alone should excite fantasy managers, though, and the pitch gives him a shot at a strikeout rate north of 30% in 2021.
Wacha’s changeup has posted a swinging-strike rate comfortably above 20% in each of the past two seasons, giving him a truly elite whiff-inducing option in his arsenal. Add in that Wacha’s fastball velocity is up this spring, that he’ll likely be used in relatively short bursts, and that the Rays are likely to make Wacha’s cutter (which has shown solid swinging-strike potential in the past) a larger focus in 2021, and the 29-year-old becomes a relatively likely candidate to shatter his career-high strikeout rate.
Orlando Arcia Posts an OPS Above .800
With a career .660 OPS and only two seasons (including 2020) with an OPS above .700, Arcia is likely an unpopular pick to post an OPS above .800. Unsurprisingly, projection systems overwhelmingly expect Arcia to post an OPS below .700 once again in 2021, but there are reasons to be far more optimistic about the 26-year-old’s offensive production this season.
Most importantly, Arcia’s hard-hit rate started trending upwards in the middle of the 2019 season and continued through 2020, resulting in a career-high 38.7% hard-hit rate and .374 xwOBAcon for the season. That added power wasn’t an accident; Arica made noticeable adjustments to his swing that likely spurred the power outburst, and he could see his power output continue to improve in 2021 as a result. Combined with Arcia’s characteristically better-than-average strikeout rate, the potential for Arcia to push his xwOBAcon closer to .400 in 2021 makes him a candidate to see a significant jump in offensive production.
Freddy Peralta Leads the Brewers in Strikeouts
The Brewers already have two dominant strikeout-heavy pitchers in their rotation in Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta is poised to join them in 2021. Projecting Peralta to rack up strikeouts isn’t really that bold of a prediction on its own; Peralta posted a whopping 37.6% strikeout rate in 2020, and projection systems expect him to strike out around 12 batters per nine innings in 2021 (more than both Woodruff and Burnes).
But those projection systems generally expect Peralta to spend most of his time coming out of the bullpen for the Brewers in 2021, capping his overall strikeout total somewhere around 125. The Brewers are stretching Peralta out to be a starter this spring, though, and although manager Craig Counsell has been noncommittal about Peralta holding a role in the starting rotation for the entire season, I doubt Peralta loses his grip on the job with Brett Anderson representing the biggest threat to his role.
It’s fair to wonder whether or not Peralta can succeed as a starting pitcher after he’s struggled in that role in the past (5.45 career MLB ERA as a starting pitcher), but Peralta made significant adjustments in 2020 (including the introduction of a potent slider) that give him a better chance at succeeding in the role in 2021. It’s also fair to wonder how many innings the Brewers will let Peralta throw in 2021, but Counsell already stated that Peralta is likely to set a career-high in innings pitched this season, setting his floor at 120 innings. Overall, Peralta’s dominant slider and solid fastball combined with the Brewers’ thin rotation and plans to stretch him out give Peralta a shot at leading the Brewers in strikeouts in 2021, and fantasy managers should keep that in mind during drafts.
Lewin Diaz is the Second-Most Valuable Marlins Fantasy Hitter
The lackluster Miami lineup may give this prediction a relatively low bar, but it would be a massive jump for Diaz who is projected to start the season in the minor leagues and owns a .778 OPS for his minor-league career. Diaz has shown flashes of a mouthwatering combination of elite contact skills and tremendous raw power, though, and he’ll likely have a chance to use those skills at the major league level at some point this season.
Diaz’s slow start to spring training (.615 OPS over his first eight games) doesn’t help matters, but with the Miami offense outside of Starling Marte projected to be pretty weak, a breakout season from Diaz would go a long way towards him fulfilling this prediction even wif he doesn’t start the season in the major leagues. A lot has to go right for Diaz for this prediction to hit, but he has the skillset to make it happen.
Brad Hand Loses the Closer Job by Midseason
I wrote about Hand as a bust candidate earlier this offseason, and not much has changed since then. If anything, Hand’s hold on the closer role in Washington has gotten even less clear since that article was posted, with manager Davey Martinez potentially leaving room for other closer options in a recent appearance.
If Hand’s fastball velocity remains down in 2021, he’s likely left with one effective pitch (his slider). That’s a recipe for disaster -- even for a closer -- and Tanner Rainey may take Hand’s job sooner rather than later as a result.
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