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There’s something about making bold predictions that is just plain fun. We’ve basically been given carte blanche to make 10 absurd statements, support some empirical evidence, and voila. You have yourself an educated baseball piece. Think the Phillies are going to win the pennant? Throw some nonsensical stats out there to prove your point! I wish I could write bold predictions every day. At any rate, enjoy my bold predictions for 2016, with a heavy emphasis on teams in or around our nation’s capital.
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10 Bold Predictions for 2016
Bryce Harper Will Crush 60 Bombs
Maybe this has more to do with my Nationals homer-ism more than actual scientific analysis, but I have a gut feeling that Bryce flirts with 65. He had huge jumps last season in a lot of categories and his .369 BABIP is surely unsustainable. Still, the dude is a stud and his 42 dingers last season averaged over 400 feet in distance with an average speed off the bat of 103.1. Look for him to have monster home run numbers, provided of course that pitchers crawl back from the 1950s and not play bean ball with him at the dish.
The Pittsburgh Outfield Will Part-Tay All Year
It’s been hyped for a couple seasons now, but 2016 is the year the Pittsburgh outfield turns it up a notch and becomes a formidable foursome. Andrew McCutchen, when not plundering with mascots, is an MVP candidate. Josh Harrison, though technically outfield eligible in most leagues but will play mostly second base, continues to defy pundits and puts in work. But it’s the other two guys that should see considerable strides. One of the streakiest hitters in the game, Gregory Polanco, is poised to explode way above his ADP in all leagues, while Starling Marte improved his plate discipline last season, but saw a drastic dip in his fly ball rate compared to his career numbers. Expect those fly ball numbers to go up, leading to more par-tay Marte homeruns.
New Marlin Wei-Yin Chen Is Going To Have Amazing Peripherals, But Terrible Fantasy Numbers
When the Marlins signed Chen to a 5 year, $80 million contract in January, I doubt they had him pegged as their Opening Day starter. But that’s just what they announced over the weekend. Over Jose Fernandez. Let that sink in. You would think that Chen would be in store for another solid season, especially in pitcher friendly Marlins Park. However, his rather pedestrian career 18.5% K rate and 1.25 WHIP could mean a lot of contact in those cavernous outfields. Don’t be surprised if his home run numbers drop, but his ERA spikes.
Josh Reddick Will Bounce Back And Wow Us
Two seasons ago, Reddick shocked the world and entered that batter’s box in amazing fashion. The Oakland fan favorite finished 2015 with 20 homeruns and a .270 average, his best season since 2012. Still, he left fantasy baseball and 80s music aficionados wanting more. I guarantee he loads back up with some nice walk up music in 2016. I like him to go .280 with 25 HR and a flock of seagulls.
The Orioles Will Immediately Regret The Chris Davis Contract
The veteran first baseman’s 7 year, $161 million deal sent shockwaves throughout the league and here at Rotoballer. Mainly because the deal is the polar opposite of a fine french wine- Davis will get worse with age. Aside from the business argument that the Orioles were essentially negotiated against themselves, this deal is going to hurt Baltimore faster than you can say, “Omar’s coming.” His 29.4% HR/FB rate cannot possibly be duplicated, as his career average is more aligned with his atrocious 2014 campaign in which he finished with a .196 batting average. Mark my words that there is zero chance he hits 30 long balls, and I’m not even factoring in the average ball player’s increased chances of injury after their thirtieth birthday.
Watch Out For Trea Turner
Well, I have essentially turned this into a Beltway blog, so why stop now. Turner made his way over to the Nationals as a “player to be named later” and now he finds himself smack dab in the middle infield. With Ian Desmond gone, and both Stephen Drew and Danny Espinosa figuring out who should strike out more often, Turner could see a healthy amount of at bats. His contact rate in both the minors and in a small sample size in 2015 is respectable and his defense can’t be worse than Desmond’s. Between second base and shortstop, both of which Turner is eligible, he should be a sneaky addition in standard leagues.
There’s No Escape From Pompey
I pimped out Pompey pretty hard last season and as a result, the Baseball Gods decreed that Pompey was persona non grata from MLB play for 2015. No matter. The dude has silly wheels and once he gets it together, he will be an absolute run force for the Blue Jays. He will most likely start in the minors, but watch out starting in May. We’ve seen how injury riddled the Jays can be. Pompey could be back up in no time.
Don’t Sleep on Justin Verlander
After missing the first portion of the season, Verlander looked downright atrocious to start his 2015 campaign. He had a 6.62 ERA in his first six starts, before ultimately yielding a 2.27 ERA over his final 14 games. His fastball velocity returned to the high 90s during that span and his curveball again showed signs of breaking the way we have always known Verlander’s stuff as breaking. Look for him return some solid value compared to his ADP.
Domingo Santana Will Win the NL Rookie of the Year
When the Brewers let Khris Davis go, they must have liked enough in Santana, who himself had come over from Houston near the trade deadline, to give him a fair shot in the outfield. Santana has shown flashes of being a monster home run hitter, but unfortunately that potential usually goes down in three pitches, as evidenced by his career 37.6% K Rate. Yikes. Still, his bat speed is more than capable enough to make up for his swinging strike rate and Miller Park should afford him plenty of chances to display his raw power.
The Chicago Cubs Will Miss the Postseason
C’mon. It’s the Cubs!!!
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