RADIO
Since the 49ers’ Super Bowl loss 13 months ago, they have suffered serious turnover. Five of their 22 starters from the Super Bowl have already left town, including All-Pro caliber players like Deforest Buckner and Joe Staley. By the end of this summer, they could be without 13 starters from that 2019 NFC Champion team and three more key contributors from 2020 (Trent Williams, Jason Verrett, and Kerry Hyder Jr.).
Given the turnover the 49ers have already suffered and the losses they will surely experience this offseason, it’s puzzling how so many experts still feel comfortable calling San Francisco a Super Bowl contender in 2021. There are far too many unknowns surrounding this team to be confident making such a proclamation, especially with serious question marks at quarterback and all through the 49ers’ secondary.
Before any of us can make bold predictions about where San Francisco will finish in 2021, first we must look closely at the issues this team is facing. By addressing each of San Francisco’s pending problems, we can better predict who will and won’t be playing for them next year. Once we know that, we can more comfortably predict what this team will do on the real and fantasy fields in 2021. *Note: Overthecap.com and spotrac.com provide all-cap figures below, so a special thanks to those working for those invaluable websites.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2022. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup tools, new Team Sync platform, Lineup Optimizer, Premium DFS tools and cheat sheets, and much more! Sign Up Now!
2021 Cap Situation
According to Overthecap.com and Spotrac.com, the 49ers currently have somewhere between $23.5 and $24 million in cap space. That is good for the 12th most cap room in the NFL this offseason, which is encouraging at first glance. The problem is, the 49ers have considerable roster holes that need filling this year, and $24 million in space won’t fill all those holes. Thus, John Lynch has some additional cap cutting to do if he wants to field a truly competitive team.
The 49ers have approximately six players who have contracts that can be easily restructured or terminated this offseason. Below are the possible cap savings the 49ers could create if they made the following reasonable roster moves…
| Player | 2021 Cap Space Created if Cut Before June 1st | 2021 Cap Space if Cut/Traded After June 1st | Approximate 2021 Cap Space if Re-Structured or Extended |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $24,100,000 | $25,500,000 | $10,000,000 |
| Dee Ford | $6,430,008 | $16,000,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Weston Richburg | $4,896,349 | $8,350,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Jimmie Ward | $1,500,000 | $5,500,000 | $4,000,000 |
| Laken Tomlinson | $3,994,000 | $5,000,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Mark Nzeocha | $1,600,000 | $1,600,000 | NA |
The 49ers could create a maximum of $85.95 million in cap room (depending on where the cap falls) if they were to maximize their realistic cap cutting moves. Do not expect them to maximize their space, however. Doing so would mean Lynch and his staff have to wait until June 1st to actually use most of the cap space they create, and everyone knows that most free agents are signed well before June. That’s why you should expect the 49ers to make their cap-cutting moves early, starting with the release of Richburg and an extension for Tomlinson.
Assuming the 49ers make the cap moves we expect, and assuming Garoppolo is willing to restructure his deal even after being tossed in trade talks again, the team should have somewhere around $49 million in space to start free agency. That pragmatic cap space could rise to approximately $63 million if Garoppolo were traded or released.
49ers’ Pending Free Agents and Projections
The 49ers' current list of key contributors who are now pending free agents looks like this (starters denoted with an *)…
- Trent Williams*
- Jason Verrett*
- Richard Sherman*
- K’Waun Williams*
- Jaquiski Tartt*
- Kerry Hyder Jr.*
- Solomon Thomas*
- J. Jones*
- Kyle Juszczyk*
- Ben Garland*
- Daniel Brunskill*
- Ahkello Witherspoon
- Tevin Coleman
- Emmanuel Moseley (RFA)
- Nick Mullens (RFA)
- J. Beathard
- Kendrick Bourne (RFA)
Trent Williams has to be San Francisco's top priority amongst their 11 free-agent starters. Expect another team like Jacksonville to drive up Williams' price, offering him close to a record deal worth $23 million per year. Ultimately the 49ers should be able to retain Williams on a backloaded four-year deal worth $85 million, keeping his 2021 cap figure around $18 million.
After they bring back their big left tackle, the 49ers should prioritize returning Juszczyk, Verrett, Moseley, and D.J. Jones to the fold next. Re-signing those assets should eat another $16-17 million in cap space, leaving the team with approximately $14 million in cap room.
With only $14 million in space left, absent bigger cap moves like cutting Garoppolo, the 49ers’ remaining free agency options could be limited if they return the players we project. Ideal options for San Francisco would be Cincinnati’s William Jackson III and Carl Lawson, Atlanta’s Alex Mack, and Denver’s Shelby Harris, but odds are the team won’t have enough cap room to bring in those players without sacrificing one of their own.
As for the fantasy impact of the 49ers’ likely moves in free agency, don’t expect much. The team should prioritize returning most of their guys, which means they will be betting on improvements from players we’ve already seen in their system. However, even if the 49ers do manage to make a high-profile free-agent addition, such an addition will likely be a cornerback or offensive lineman who won’t have much fantasy relevance.
49ers’ Draft Outlook
The 49ers currently have at least one pick in every round of the 2021 NFL Draft, thanks in part to defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's departure. Expect multiple picks to be used on cornerbacks, with the offensive and defensive lines their next priorities. A quarterback is also an option early, but don’t expect San Francisco to spend big on offensive skill position players.
Round 1: Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley is the most likely target for the 49ers at pick #12 right now, with Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II their second option. If both are gone before the 49ers pick, John Lynch could decide to trade back with New England or Washington to add draft capital and South Carolina corner, Jaycee Horn.
Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater is another strong option for the 49ers, especially if Trent Williams leaves in free agency. Slater is a smart and versatile lineman who can capably replace Williams at left tackle, move inside to center, or play opposite Williams at right tackle if the 49ers decide to trade Mike McGlinchey rather than pay him.
Finally, there is an outside chance that the 49ers go after a quarterback with their first pick. The best passer they could target would be BYU’s Zach Wilson, but Alabama’s Mac Jones is far more affordable and he fits the mold of what Shanahan has historically coveted in his passers. Do not be surprised if the 49ers make a hard push for Jones, jumping ahead of Carolina if they have to.
Round 2: Look for this pick to be the best available cornerback, offensive lineman, or pass rusher. The 49ers’ ideal option here may be trading back to add another mid-round pick before drafting Ohio State’s Shaun Wade to replace K’Waun Williams in the slot.
Rounds 3-4: Oklahoma defensive lineman Ronnie Perkins, UW-Whitewater guard Quinn Meinerz, Oregon corner Jevon Holland, and Miami tight end Brevin Jordan are likely third-round targets for the 49ers, but all could require a trade-up. Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond is also a distinct possibility as a project who can sit behind Garoppolo and grow.
Northern Iowa pass rusher Elerson Smith and Georgia cornerback D.J. Daniels would be great values if they last to the fourth. Both fit the 49ers’ scheme and needs.
Rounds 5-7: As always, the later rounds will be a crapshoot filled mostly with backups and special teamers. Oregon State running back Jermar Jefferson and Stanford passer Davis Mills are examples of upside options the 49ers could target if they fall.
Fantasy Impact of the 49ers’ Potential Draft Picks: The most gifted defender San Francisco could draft, and perhaps the best defender in the whole class, is Farley. The problem is that Farley is a cornerback, and rookie corners rarely excel early. Farley could struggle to adapt more than most, since he had only two years' experience as a full-time defender before opting out of this past college season.
The 2021 fantasy ceiling for either Farley or Surtain II is as a CB2 in IDP formats, and neither should lift the 49ers’ defense into the top-ten fantasy ranks on their own. There isn’t a big-time pass rusher in this class who should immediately move the IDP or D/ST needle for you in redrafts, either.
On offense, Mac Jones and Trey Lance are the two fantasy-relevant rookies who the 49ers could realistically add without a major trade-up. However, Lance's inconsistent ball placement and inexperience could block him from playing very much in 2021, meaning his fantasy value is limited to dynasty leagues. Meanwhile, Jones profiles so similarly to Garoppolo that a switch from one to the other shouldn’t impact your fantasy team too much in 2021.
Breaking Down the 49ers’ Quarterback Options & Fantasy Implications
After considering Tom Brady last offseason and quietly bidding for Matthew Stafford's services in this one, there is clear doubt in San Francisco about just how far Jimmy Garoppolo can carry this team. With that concern clearly stewing in the Bay, any comprehensive look at the 49ers’ 2021 offseason requires a deep analysis of their quarterback position, as well as any fantasy ramifications of the possible changes they could make.
*Note: These quarterback options are ranked based on perceived likelihood, not what the 49ers should do.
Option #1: Retain Jimmy Garoppolo & Draft a Project QB
There is no question that Garoppolo has a terrific 26-9 record as an NFL starter, including the playoffs. There’s also no doubt that he is one of the more “efficient” passers in the NFL when it comes to advanced metrics like Pro Football Reference’s ‘On Target Percentage’ and ‘Bad Decision’ ratings. So why would the 49ers want to move on from him?
For starters, Garoppolo’s win rate can be misleading. 17 of his 26 career wins came with elite teams supporting him. Two of those wins came with a Super Bowl-winning Patriots roster, and another 15 came in 2019 when the 49ers had the NFL’s best pass defense and second-best running attack. In fact, San Francisco’s roster was so strong in 2019 that Garoppolo only had to throw 27 total passes in his two playoff victories.
Another big reason to doubt Garoppolo is his lack of aerial upside. Over the past two seasons Jimmy G has thrown, on average, the second shortest passes amongst all NFL starting quarterbacks. That means that from quarterback to receiver, only Drew Brees’ passes have traveled a shorter average distance than Garoppolo’s do.
Jimmy G’s addiction to short passes is exacerbated by his phobia of throwing deep balls (i.e., passes that travel 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage). Over the past two years, Garoppolo has averaged a mere 1.59 deep balls per game, which is a far cry from the 3.75 deep balls per game that Matt Ryan averaged in his two seasons under Shanahan. Even the notoriously conservative Derek Carr has attempted more than twice as many deep balls per game over the past two years.
For context on just how important the depth of a quarterback’s throws is in today’s NFL, consider that this year's Super Bowl-winning quarterback (Tom Brady) finished with the most total Air Yards of any Quarterback in the NFL, while his opponent (Patrick Mahomes) finished third. As a matter of fact, 18 of the past 26 starting quarterbacks to make the playoffs also finished in the top-20 when it came to Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/PA). Garoppolo is the only quarterback to make a Conference Championship despite having an IAY/PA outside the top-20.
Finally, no argument against Garoppolo is complete without mentioning his injury history. He has missed at least part of a game in 46.7% of his NFL starts. That's a problem for any starting quarterback, particularly one who commands nearly 15% of his team's salary cap.
With all these flaws considered, the odds still favor Garoppolo’s return to San Francisco in 2021. Lynch will likely see Garoppolo as the established answer to a question he doesn’t have to ask this offseason. Keeping him around and addressing other more pressing issues is easier than investing heavily in another quarterback whose failure could spell a career-altering bomb.
Fantasy Stock Up With Garoppolo in San Francisco
Deebo Samuel (Current ADP: 86th overall) – Samuel’s elite tackle-breaking ability and his mediocre hands (he averages a poor drop rate of 9.6%) lend themselves to a very specific role in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Samuel is a YAC (yards after the catch) weapon, not a traditional deep threat or an intermediate receiver. That is why he sports such a shallow depth of target (5.63 yards per target) and an even shallower depth of catch (-0.4 yards per reception in 2020).
A whopping 69% of Jimmy G’s passes over the past two years have traveled less than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, putting them squarely in what we will call ‘the Deebo Zone.’ Even better, Garoppolo aims 21.4% of his throws behind the line of scrimmage, which is where Samuel’s average catch took place in 2020. That kind of correlation between receiver usage and quarterback tendencies should lead to significantly more targets than many are projecting Samuel to have with Garoppolo as his quarterback, which makes him a bargain at his current ADP of 86th overall.
49ers Running Back(s) in Non-PPR Formats: Over the past two years, San Francisco has averaged a whopping 30.45 rush attempts and 131.95 rushing yards per game when Garoppolo is on the field. That’s considerably more than the 26 attempts and 110 rushing yards per game that Coach Shanahan’s offenses in Atlanta averaged when he had a more prolific passer.
If the 49ers add a better passer than Garoppolo, such as Deshaun Watson, anticipate the offense to increase its passing plays by 15% or more. That should drop the Non-PPR value of the 49ers’ backs, but their PPR points should balance out with the increased passing game involvement.
Fantasy Stock Down with Garoppolo in San Francisco:
Brandon Aiyuk (Current ADP: 63rd overall) - Approximately 84.5% of Aiyuk’s fantasy points last year came in games in which he received seven or more targets. The rookie averaged just 7.6 PPR points per game in contests where he received six or fewer looks. That’s a concerning trend when you consider the meager 3.6 targets per game that Garoppolo sent towards Aiyuk in their five games together.
While Garoppolo should target Aiyuk more in 2021 than he did last season, don’t expect the Arizona State product to get the 7+ targets per game that he needs from Garoppolo. Aiyuk’s usage in San Francisco (average depth of target of 9.4 yards) and Garoppolo’s throwing preferences (6.46 Air Yards per Attempt) just aren’t an ideal match. Garoppolo’s low passing volume (28.4 throws per game) and his tendency to shower both Kittle and Samuel with targets won’t help Aiyuk’s weekly fantasy floor, either.
If you’re drafting Aiyuk at his current ADP of 63rd overall, you’re paying for his ceiling with Garoppolo. There’s just not that much upside if you’re getting him at that price and in that situation. Hesitate before paying Aiyuk’s current price in drafts, unless something significant changes in San Francisco.
Option #2: Trade for Sam Darnold
Adding Sam Darnold may be the most equitable QB change the 49ers could make in 2021. The 23-year-old California native is still talented, young, and his cap hit in 2021 would be a meager $4.77 million. Rumors right now are that the Jets only want a second-round pick, and that New England would willingly give the 49ers a second for Garoppolo. So adding Darnold could come at little to no cost, and with serious cap benefits.
There is admittedly downside to acquiring Darnold, given the reckless streak he has played with since his final year at USC. What’s worse, Darnold still struggles mightily with his decision-making and pre-snap reads. Compared to Garoppolo, the Jets’ current QB has an inferior Bad Decision rate (17.3% to Garoppolo’s 14.7%) and On Target percentage (73.6% to Garoppolo’s 80%), and he turns the ball over nearly as often as he scores/throws touchdowns. All of that is bad news, but Darnold isn’t the ‘pure trash’ that some in my Twitter feed seem to think, either.
Darnold’s career path has to be viewed in the proper context to truly understand it. While he has made a lot of mistakes that are entirely on him, Darnold has also been saddled with less offensive talent than any other passer in the NFL. During his short pro career, the former Trojan's greatest helpers have been Jamison Crowder, a version of Le’Veon Bell that looked bad even on the Chiefs, and… Adam Gase?
If you project Darnold onto a competent offense like San Francisco’s, things change for him quickly. In fact, a full-season projection for Darnold with the 49er results in 4,338 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and a 62% completion percentage. When you take Darnold's running ability into account, the 49ers offense actually projects to rack up 528 more yards and just as many touchdowns with Darnold at the helm as they would with Garoppolo. These projections are assuming zero improvements in Darnold's decision-making or accuracy, too.
Darnold brings physical upside and cap flexibility at a very low acquisition cost. If Shanahan can reclaim him, this deal could be a steal. If Shanahan can’t, the team basically traded back three spots in the second round in exchange for $20 million in cap space and a failed lottery ticket.
Fantasy Stock Up With Sam Darnold in San Francisco
Sam Darnold (Projected ADP with 49ers: Undrafted) –Darnold projects to score 285 points standard fantasy points as a 49er in 2021. That total would have been good for QB13 last season. While his floor could be lower than our projections if all were to go wrong for him this year, putting Shanahan and Darnold together should do nothing but help the fourth-year pro’s performance. Draft a 49er-bound Darnold as a mid-tier QB2 in fantasy redrafts. He would also be a sneaky buy-low candidate in Superflex dynasty formats, too.
San Francisco 49ers Defense (Projected ADP: 158th) - By swapping Garoppolo for Darnold, the 49ers could create serious cap space and retain pretty much all of their draft picks. They would then be in a position to re-sign key free agents like Jason Verrett, K’Waun Williams, and D.J. Jones, while adding a helpful outsider like Bengals pass rusher Carl Lawson. Their draft picks could then be focused on selecting their final starting cornerback in Caleb Farley, and a rotational defensive lineman like Florida State’s Marvin Wilson. That kind of offseason would be enough to return the 49ers’ D/ST unit to top-ten status. It would also help maintain both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner as IDP starters.
Option #3: Draft a Quarterback Early
San Francisco has four first-round caliber passers to choose from in this front-loaded rookie crop of quarterbacks, considering that Trevor Lawrence is destined for Jacksonville. Of those four options, one stands out in terms of the overall grade and fit.
You simply can’t ignore the compatibility of BYU’s Zach Wilson to San Francisco. The passer himself even recognized the 49ers as his ideal landing spot, noting the similarities between Shanahan's offense and BYU's. Those similarities should spell an easier rookie year transition for Wilson than for others, which is particularly relevant for fantasy managers looking to invest in him or San Francisco’s pass catchers.
The 49ers also seem to see the fit with Wilson, considering he is one of only two college passers they scouted in person this year. Of course, it takes more than just interest to get Wilson to San Francisco. The Jets also have to be cooperative, first passing on Wilson themselves and then agreeing to take a package from Coach Robert Saleh’s former employer rather than Carolina or Atlanta. The only way that happens is if Saleh really wants one of his former defenders, such as Javon Kinlaw. If that’s the case, the 49ers could likely have Wilson for Kinlaw and two first-rounders. The risk of such a deal could pay off big if Wilson’s mobility, elite pocket presence, and ability to complete throws from multiple angles pay off.
Justin Fields is the other quarterback who the 49ers could consider maneuvering to get, but they wouldn’t necessarily have to deal with the Jets to get him. While Fields is supremely mobile and has a good deep ball, Ohio State’s offense allowed to Fields’ processing power to stagnate. Indiana was able to jump several of Fields’ passes this year because they knew they could trust his eyes and reliance on his first read, and NFL defenses will do the same until he adapts. That flaw could ultimately help Fields if it causes him to fall to a range where San Francisco is comfortably trading for him, because Coach Shanahan is someone who can help fix Fields’ bad habits.
As we have mentioned already, the last but more likely quarterback options for the 49ers in the first-round are Trey Lance and Mac Jones. Of the two, Jones is the better fit for Shanahan thanks to the fact his game resembles a souped-up Kirk Cousins. Don’t be surprised if Shanahan and Carolina Head Coach Matt Rhule are Jones’ two biggest fans in this Draft.
Fantasy Stock Up if Drafted by San Francisco:
Zach Wilson (Projected ADP: 140th overall) – Wilson and his fans should be thrilled if the 49ers end up drafting him instead of the Jets or Texans. No team picking in the first 15 selections has a better combination of coaching and weapons than San Francisco, and the schematic fit is just icing on the cake.
If Wilson ends up in San Fran, he should have an even better rookie season in fantasy than Trevor Lawrence. Wilson’s offensive fit, mobility, and San Francisco’s resources are all just too good not to rank him as QB14 in redrafts and QB12 in dynasty startups.
Justin Fields’ Dynasty Value (Projected ADP: Undrafted) – Fields to the 49ers is an interesting match. He has the physical ability to start early and excel as Deshaun Watson did as a rookie, but he also sports several bad habits that Shanahan may be hesitant to put on the field without more work.
If Fields ends up a 49er and you’re looking hard at him as a starter, then hopefully your fantasy draft won’t come early. Expect the 49ers to signal their intentions with any rookie passer they draft by either keeping Garoppolo or trading him away. For now, consider Fields a lower-tier QB2 in redraft formats who should be elevated to QB13 if Garoppolo were traded. Fields as a 49er is a top-12 dynasty quarterback either way, though.
Mac Jones’ 2021 Value (Projected ADP: Undrafted) - Jones’ polished style of play fits well with Shanahan’s scheme, and the weapons they have should give him a better fantasy floor than he would have if he were drafted to one of his other suitors (Carolina, New England, and Washington). Consider Jones’ fantasy value to be comparable to that of Garoppolo (QB24) in 2021, with a value closer to QB18 in dynasty.
Fantasy Stock Down if Drafted by San Francisco:
Trey Lance’s 2021 Value (Projected ADP: Undrafted) - As we stated in our draft section of this analysis, Lance is unlikely to play much in 2021 if the 49ers draft him. He could seriously struggle if he does. That's why you shouldn't bother drafting him in redrafts, and you should discount him slightly in any dynasty leagues where you are in win-now mode. Consider him a waiver option in redraft and QB21 in dynasty.
Option #4: Trade for Deshaun Watson
If the 49ers want to go all-in on Watson, they first must hope that the Texans actually agree to trade him. If that happens, San Francisco would still have to pray that both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets opted out of the competition. Only then would the 49ers have a realistic shot at the Pro Bowl passer.
Any trade package for Watson would have to involve at least three first-round picks (2021, 2022, and 2023) and a key defender (either Nick Bosa or Fred Warner). That’s a huge package to give up, but it’s pretty obvious why the team would do this. Watson is unquestionably better than Garoppolo, in pretty much every way. You don’t need stats to back up that claim. It's simply an irrefutable fact. If you doubt it, watch football.
What’s even better, Watson would save the 49ers approximately $9.5 million in cap space this year. That’s valuable cap savings for a team with 11 starters earmarked for free agency.
Fantasy Stock Up With Watson in San Francisco
Watson & All 49ers Pass Catchers- Despite his reputation as a running game guru, Kyle Shanahan’s offenses in Atlanta averaged 574 pass attempts per season, or 38.9 attempts per game. That trend wasn’t just isolated to Atlanta, either. Since 2015, Shanahan run offenses have actually averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game… as long as Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the quarterback. When Garoppolo has been the quarterback, Shanahan dials back his throws to just 29.6 per game. That rate got even worse after Garoppolo’s ACL surgery, dipping to 28.4 per contest.
If the 49ers were to raise their pass attempts to just 530 next season, which would be in line with Shanahan’s history, their offense with Watson would blow up. The team would project to collect 4,996 passing yards, 390 catches for their receivers, and 37 passing touchdowns. That’s nearly 1,000 extra passing yards, 10 more touchdowns, and 60 more catches to spread around to the 49ers’ already talented pass catchers.
With Watson in San Fran, you can take the fantasy points you expected from your 49er pass catchers this year and add 20%. The passer himself would be fantasy’s QB2 overall, with a better than average chance to finish as QB1.
Fantasy Stock Down With Watson in San Francisco
Everyone on the 49ers' Defense- Considering that the 49ers defense just lost their emotional leader (Saleh) and they’re primed to lose all of their corners in free agency, a trade for Watson could completely break the unit in half. Any deal for Watson would mean the 49ers would have precious little draft capital to replace their defensive losses, and they would create another hole by giving up either Fred Warner or Nick Bosa in the deal.
The most fantasy damage that any 49er could experience from a Watson deal might be dealt to Bosa, who would see his IDP stock sink whether he was traded to a bad Houston D or if he stayed on a depleted 49er unit. San Francisco’s defense would also have little fantasy value if they gave up multiple picks and Bosa/Warner in a trade.
Wild Card Option: Trade for Tua Tagovailoa
The scenario in which Tua Tagovailoa could end up in the Bay involves Houston and Miami getting close on a trade for Deshaun Watson, but Houston showing little interest in Tua as their long-term answer. If that were the case, Houston could be helped across the finish line if the 49ers stepped in and facilitated the following deal…
- Texans Receive: Three 2021 first-round picks (#3, #12, and #18 overall), Jimmy Garoppolo, and Noah Igbinoghene
- 49ers Receive: Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s 2021 third-round pick
- Dolphins Receive: Deshaun Watson
If Houston feels like Watson will never play a down for them again, this deal could be their best-case scenario. This deal gives them a starting cornerback, a bridge-quarterback in Garoppolo who GM Nick Caserio trusts, and the opportunity to draft three high-upside rookies. In the end, this deal could look like a trade of Watson for Justin Fields, Jaylen Waddle, Gregory Rousseau, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Igbinoghene if all went well for Houston.
Miami’s end of this deal is obviously all about obtaining Watson. If they feel that Watson is a massive improvement over what they have in Tua, they likely feel comfortable surrendering three draft picks and their slot corner in the process.
Finally, the 49ers could benefit greatly from this deal. They would get younger and cheaper at quarterback without having to surrender the assets they would in a trade up for Zach Wilson or Justin Fields. While Tua has some healing and growing left to do, there were stretches of the 2020 season when he looked to be an improvement over Garoppolo despite his injured hip and lack of healthy receivers. If Tua can get 100% healthy, he could become a star in Shanahan’s system.
Fantasy Stock Up With Tagovailoa in San Francisco
Tua Tagovailoa (Projected ADP in SF: 137th overall) - Like pretty much every quarterback on this list, Tagovailoa has more fantasy value in San Francisco than he does almost anywhere else. Miami simply doesn’t have the same weapons that the 49ers do, even if they were to draft Ja’Marr Chase at pick #3. They also don’t have Kyle Shanahan calling plays. Tua should rate as QB12 in redrafts and dynasty if he is playing for the 49ers, and don’t surprised if he finishes the year as a top-eight option.
Non-Option: Trade for Matt Ryan
The odds of Ryan being traded this offseason are so low that it isn’t worth projecting his fantasy impact in San Francisco. The Falcons stand to take a $3.5 million cap hit if they trade him before June 1st while eating $44 million in dead money. That's a tough pill to swallow, especially when considering Ryan's trade value after June 1st is considerably lower than it would be now or in February of next year.
Expect Atlanta to hold onto Ryan this year, thanks to the cap complications involved in trading him. He should start ahead of a rookie for most of this year and then be traded in 2022.
Non-Option #2: Trade for Kirk Cousins
Stop it.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
Win Big With RotoBaller
Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:
More Fantasy Football Analysis
