RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~155 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~167
Even though getting 10+ points per game from your defense is beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a D/ST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my D/ST's on teams with strong defensive talent as well as their early-season schedules.
I've created a D/ST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play.
ANALYSIS:
Last season, the 49ers had Nick Bosa for all of two games and Dee Ford for only one. The loss of those two dynamic pass-rushers drastically re-shapes the ability of a defense considering Bosa had nine sacks in a Pro Bowl rookie season in 2019 while Ford had 13 sacks in his last full season, back in 2018 with the Chiefs. Having these two guys consistently pressuring the quarterback will drastically improve a pass rush that finished 22nd with only 30 sacks last year.
The increased pressure will also be a boon for a secondary that didn't create a lot of turnovers last year but has clear talent. The 49ers were able to bring back Jason Verrett and Jaquiski Tartt to a defense that includes stud linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, which means this team has skilled defenders at every level. That's good news for most defenses but especially a team that uses the defensive line to attack and set a tone as much as the 49ers have in the past. New defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, who was the linebackers coach, has said he intends to keep that philosophy and that the scheme won't be drastically different, which means we shouldn't have to endure that much of a learning curve in the early season with two-plus matchups.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @Lions, @Eagles, vs Packers, vs Seahawks (first two weeks could be top-five finishes)
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