Saturday Night Football Matchup Analysis: Week 18 Doubleheader

Week 18 is finally upon us which means we get to enjoy two games on Saturday. While most fantasy leagues have wrapped up their fantasy playoffs, there are still many leagues that play their championship round in the final week of the season. Selecting the right players in the final week of the NFL season is always difficult since fantasy players have to try and navigate teams resting starters or trying to see if they have any players that will have roles in the future. This year will be no different.

The first game of Saturday will be between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. Denver will miss the playoffs this season, but Kansas City has to secure a win to clinch the second seed in the AFC for the playoffs. The Chiefs are coming into this game after a tough loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week and will likely play their starters on offense and defense to end 2021 on a high note. Denver will likely play a majority of their starters in this game, but will once again start Drew Lock. They will also be missing two of their top quarterbacks.

The second game on Saturday between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles will probably be more complicated. Dallas will likely wind up as the fourth seed in the NFC, but different outcomes can get them as high as the second seed. Jerry Jones has already stated that he expects Dallas’ starters to play the game and the Cowboys will likely try to win so they can control their destiny. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is locked into a playoff spot as the sixth or seventh seed and has little to play for. The Eagles placed 12 players on the COVID list this week and may opt to rest Jalen Hurts thanks to an ankle injury he suffered earlier in the season. The Eagles may choose to rest most of their starters for a majority of the game to try and gear up for a Wild Card round upset in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

• Saturday, January 8, 4:30 p.m.
• Game line: Kansas City -11.5
• Game total: 45

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

• Saturday, January 8, 8:15 p.m.
• Game line: Dallas -5
• Game total: 43

Must Starts

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Dak Prescott has been playing his best football the last two weeks as the Cowboys prepare for a playoff run. In Weeks 16 and 17, Prescott has completed 67% of his passes for 556 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions. He’s also totaled nine carries for 41 yards during that stretch of games. Philadelphia is allowing just 16 fantasy points to quarterbacks per game this season, but could very well rest a lot of key starters on defense and make Prescott’s life easier in the passing game.

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Since Week 14, Mahomes is completing 73% of his passes for 1,185 yards and 10 touchdowns with just one interception. Kansas City had an eight-game winning streak snapped in a shootout game in Week 17 against the Cincinnati Bengals and will lock themselves into the second seed in the AFC with a victory. The Broncos have been stellar against quarterbacks this season, allowing the third-fewest points per game to the position (14.5). However, Denver has already ruled out their starting cornerbacks (Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain II), which should allow Mahomes to throw the ball all over them this week.

Darrel Williams (RB, KC)

Darrel Williams continues to play his best when handed the starting running back position in Kansas City. Williams had 14 carries for 88 yards and two touchdowns while catching all three of his targets for 19 yards against the Bengals in Week 17. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has already been ruled out in Week 18 which means Williams will once again be the top running back in the Kansas City offense. Denver allows 17 fantasy points per game to running backs this season but is also prone to giving up plenty of receptions to the position out of the backfield.

Melvin Gordon (RB, DEN)

Melvin Gordon continues to find himself in a 50/50 timeshare in Denver’s backfield, which means he has a chance to be a fantasy viable in Week 18 with many teams resting or holding players out of their games. Gordon had 10 carries for 43 yards and three receptions (on four targets) for 29 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17. In his last five games, the veteran running back is averaging 14.6 carries and 57.2 yards per game. Denver will likely continue to rely on their running backs this week with Drew Lock under center, which should mean enough work for Gordon to put him on fantasy radars (and making him a solid FLEX play).

Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)

Rookie running back Javonte Williams is the other part of Denver’s two-headed rushing attack. Since Week 13, Williams is averaging 12.8 carries and 46.8 rushing yards per game and has found the end zone three times. Both running backs have struggled since Drew Lock took over the quarterback position, but Williams has shown the ability to take a handoff for a long touchdown repeatedly throughout his rookie season. Williams should see a healthy workload in the last game of the season and can finish as a solid RB2 this week.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)

Tyreek Hill has been difficult to trust this season, but his big-play upside makes him a weekly starter in all formats. Hill has just eight receptions on 12 targets for 59 yards his last two games. However, in Week 15, the Chiefs’ WR1 caught 12 of 13 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown. Hill has 10 games this season with double-digit targets, but just three games with over 100 receiving yards. Denver will be without their top two cornerbacks this week, which could mean a huge game for Hill down the field.

Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)

Amari Cooper has struggled to put together huge games this season, but he’s one of Dak Prescott’s favorite targets in the red zone this season (eight touchdowns). Since Week 13, Cooper has had 17 receptions on 30 targets for 162 yards and three touchdowns. Cooper has a touchdown catch in three of his last four games and could be poised for a big day against the Eagles, especially if they decide to rest Darius Slay to keep him fresh for their playoff game.  

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

CeeDee Lamb is having a fantastic season but has struggled to produce massive fantasy weeks this season. Lamb hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 10, but he is still averaging 8.2 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 63.4 yards per game over the last five weeks. With Michael Gallup out for the rest of the season, Lamb could see his role in the passing game increase heading into the NFL playoffs. In his first game against the Eagles, Lamb caught all three of his targets for 66 yards.

DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)

Smith has been operating as Philadelphia’s top wide receiver this season and will see his role expand with Dallas Goedert likely to miss this week thanks to a positive COVID test. In his last seven games, Smith is averaging 5.4 targets, 3.3 receptions, and 48.3 receiving yards per game. He’s also scored three times since Week 9. Smith will get fed the ball as the only consistent receiving threat in Philadelphia’s passing attack regardless of which quarterback is under center.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce has struggled to consistently produce high-upside fantasy production. In his last four games, Kelce exceeded 30 receiving yards just once. Kelce has found the end zone three times in his last two games and put together a huge week against the Chargers in Week 16 (10 receptions on 13 targets for 191 yards and two touchdowns). Kelce can have a huge game at any time and has to be started regardless of matchup. Denver is the best team against tight ends through 17 weeks of the season (4.3 points per game), but they have nothing to play for and could struggle to contain Kelce for a second time this season.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

Dalton Schultz was already a crucial part of Dallas’ passing offense in 2021 and will likely see his role grow with Michael Gallup out for the season with an ACL injury. Since Week 14, Schultz has had 22 receptions on 27 targets for 203 yards and two touchdowns. Schultz has at least three receptions and 40 receiving yards in six of his last seven games and faces off against the second-worst defense against tight ends this season in Week 18 (10.9 fantasy points per game).

Noah Fant (TE, DEN)

Noah Fant is seeing more work in the passing game with Drew Lock back under center. In his last three games, Fant is averaging 5.7 targets, 4.7 receptions, and 59.7 receiving yards per game. He had one of his best games of the season against the Chargers in Week 17, totaling 92 receiving yards and a touchdown in a tough matchup. Lock will be back under center again, which could mean another big day for Fant against a Kansas City defense that has allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year.

Consider Sitting

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)

Philadelphia hasn’t said they were resting their starters this week, but they also put 12 players on the COVID list this week (which ensures those who test positive will be available for the next 90 days). If Hurts plays, he likely gets pulled from the game early to get him extra rest from his high ankle sprain early in the season. It is a considerable risk trusting him in your fantasy championship.

Drew Lock (QB, DEN)

Teddy Bridgewater has struggled to get activated after suffering a concussion, leaving Drew Lock with one last chance to make his case for the starting quarterback position in 2022. Lock has started the last two games and completed 70% of his passes but has only been able to throw for 398 passing yards and one touchdown over two games. He offers fantasy managers very little this week against a Kansas City defense looking for something to prove heading into the playoffs after getting shredded by Joe Burrow in Week 17.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)

As the Cowboys ramp up for the playoffs, they’ve started to ease up on Ezekiel Elliott to protect his knee injury. In his last two weeks, Elliott has just 18 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown and two receptions (on three targets) for 19 yards and an additional score. Dallas is locked into a top-4 seed in the playoffs and could choose to rest Elliott for a majority of the game, especially if they get a big lead against an Eagles defense with little to play for.

Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)

Jerry Jeudy missed Week 17 thanks to a trip to the COVID-IR, but before that, he struggled to get rapport with Drew Lock in the two weeks prior. Since Lock took over after Bridgewater’s concussion, Jeudy has just three receptions on eight targets for 60 yards. Jeudy hasn’t had the season many fantasy players envisioned after suffering a high-ankle sprain back in Week 1. The second-year receiver hasn’t found the end zone this season and has just one game with more than 70 receiving yards. Jeudy will have a tough matchup with a quarterback he doesn’t have the rapport with, making him an easy fade again in Week 18.

Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)

Mecole Hardman is struggling to get consistent snaps for Kansas City this season which renders him useless in fantasy football this season. Hardman hasn’t played in more than 50% of Kansas City’s offensive plays since Week 9. In his last seven games, he is averaging 2.7 targets, 1.9 receptions, and 31.1 receiving yards per game. He’s scored just once this season, making him a fade unless you need a potentially huge play.

Upside Plays

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)

Like Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard carries a considerable amount of risk considering his foot injury. Pollard has played in less than 42% of the team’s offensive snaps the past three weeks after suffering a foot injury in Week 13. In his last three games, Pollard has 23 carries for 117 yards and eight receptions on 11 targets for 78 yards. Pollard is the most explosive running back in Dallas but could see another reduced snap share as Dallas attempts to head into the playoffs as healthy as possible.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI)

Rookie Kenneth Gainwell is an interesting play for the Eagles this week. Miles Sanders has already been ruled out of this week’s game with a hand injury. Boston Scott and Jordan Howard both tested positive for COVID earlier in the week and will likely miss this game. That leaves Kenneth Gainwell as the only running back on the roster (until Philadelphia activates somebody from the practice squad). Gainwell has flashed playmaking ability as a receiver this season and could get a chance to have a solid workload carrying the ball in the last game of the season.

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Courtland Sutton has had a consistent target share since Drew Lock returned to the starting lineup. Since Week 14, Sutton has had nine receptions on 17 targets for 105 yards. Lock and Sutton have established rapport together after playing together in two prior seasons. Sutton has the best chance to make a big play thanks to Lock’s willingness to throw the ball downfield but also gets a tough matchup against Chavarius Ward. Sutton’s role the past three weeks makes him a boom or bust play once again this week.

Byron Pringle (WR, KC)

Byron Pringle has started to emerge as the second-best receiver in Kansas City’s offense. Since Week 14, Pringle is averaging five targets, four receptions, and 44 receiving yards per game. He’s also added two touchdowns during that stretch. Pringle will struggle to have a big week unless he finds the end zone, but he could have a solid fantasy floor against a defense missing their top two cornerbacks.

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