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We've already spent posts looking at intriguing rookies, and yet we've still got plenty of great first players to examine, all of whom have high-level fantasy upside in the future.
For our previous lists, check out Part 1 and Part 2.
This week we dive even deeper into this year's rookies, and examine their production this season and also their future prospects. We're taking a look at the lottery specials - guys who were stuck on lottery teams causing them to stray outside the national radar. Let's begin with one of the few intriguing players on one of the most dumpster fire teams of the season.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including NBA Writer of the Year, Best NFL Series, MLB Series, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!
Seeing The Future: A Look At This Year's NBA Rookie Class, Part 3
Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic
Isaac has had an injury plagued rookie season but he's flashed a very fantasy friendly skill-set in the time he has been on the court. Even with under 20 minutes a game this year, he has been very close to a triple one guy, averaging 1.2 steals, 1.1 blocks and 0.6 threes in 19.9 mpg. The minutes obviously will not stay that low if he manages to stay on the court next season, and that kind of production in the money stats is something legitimately worth salivating over.
Player Comparison: Nerlens Noel
It's easy to forget that Noel has a couple of top-50 seasons under his belt despite the disaster that has been the last 2 years of his young career. Isaac's fantasy game doesn't fit Noel's perfectly, but the one important thing that is a match is the insane per 36 defensive numbers that both guys bring. In those top-50 seasons, Noel average over 1.5 in both steals and blocks, and Isaac in 30 minutes looks to easily hit those kind of marks if he were to ramp up to 30 minutes per game.
The advantage that Isaac has over Noel is that he also can average 1+ 3 per game in those minutes, which makes his ceiling even higher since Noel is a literal zero in that category. Isaac also trades off Noel's decent FG% on low volume for a less damaging FT%, while having a horrendous FG% himself, albeit also on low volume.
Ceiling: Top 20 upside long term, top-70 short term
A lot of people will see this as aggressive, but if Isaac can play 30 minutes a game and improve his shooting to something like 42% (which would bump his PPG to double digits as well), he can absolutely be a top-20 guy with his fantasy profile, maybe even better. His offensive game clearly has holes, and how good he becomes in fantasy will largely depend on how good of a real life player he becomes and how many minutes he can earn but there is no doubt that this kind of kit is something special and he is someone to watch going forward.
Josh Jackson, Phoenix Suns
Josh Jackson has already hit his stride as a bonafide fantasy asset, posting top-70 type stats in punt FT% builds over the last 2 months. Unfortunately, with the high amount of free throw volume he gets, Jackson looks like his value will be limited to punt FT% teams, while being over-drafted by teams not punting that category. Jackson is already getting minutes in the mid-30s, and as his career progresses, there's no reason for that to change going forward.
Player Comparison: Philly-era Andre Iguodala
The physical comparison that's been made since he was drafted is a young Andre Iguodala. It's easy to forget the Philly version of Iggy back in 2006-2010 averaging nearly 20 points a game with a large amount of steals and some 3s, blocks, assists and rebounds. Jackson stuffs the stat sheet in a similar way, but the difference right now is Jackson's FT% is enough lower than Iggy's was at the time to force him into being a punt guy.
Ceiling: Top 30 punt FT%, top 50 standard if he can improve his FT a bit
Jackson will already be a top-50 guy in punt FT% next season and can move up to a top-30 guy once the Suns give him more playmaking responsibility. If Jackson is able to improve his FT% over the years to 72+, that's when he can become a top 50 guy in standard builds as well.
John Collins, Atlanta Hawks
Despite not falling into consistent minutes on a putrid Atlanta Hawks team until quite recently, the Baptist has still had a very successful rookie season for fantasy purposes. He was already a top-100 guy on the season even with the sporadic minutes, and given a larger role and a 30 min average, he can be a fairly strong contributor right away next year.
Player Comparison: Al Horford with less assists and more rebounds
Collins fits into the special category of bigs that don't hurt your FT% as badly as the position usually does, and he will fit teams in a way similar to Al Horford does. Collins isn't nearly as good of a passer as big Al, but he is also not nearly as bad of a rebounder, and while that does make his overall kit a bit less valuable, the rest of the game projects to develop into something similar to Horford and it isn't the worst thing to be compared to a slightly worse version of a perennial top-30 guy.
Ceiling: Top-40 short to long term
The Baptist will be a glue guy for teams in the future similar to what Horford is today. He won't be a sexy high upside pick, but he possesses the type of skill-set that will return consistent value for where you draft him and plug in certain holes on your team no matter what your build is. As his role increases, Collins' 3-pointers should increase along with his points as the usage ramps up and the defensive stats should increase a bit given more minutes.
Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn Nets
Jarrett Allen has tailed off following a very productive mid-season stretch that made him one of the hottest pickups in the game. Despite this, he's still been hovering around the top-100 mark over the last 2 months, combining solid percentages with excellent block and rebound rates. Allen is the rare player who gives you stereotypical big man stats without hurting your FT%, making him very easy to slot into any number of builds.
Player Comparison: Myles Turner without the 3s
The one thing missing from Allen's game is a healthy dose of 3-pointers. While he does attempt shots from downtown, he's by no means a perimeter threat yet and while the rest of the game can look very similar to Myles Turner's fantasy profile in a couple years, he will need to take a significant step up in the 3s department to match the Pacers big man there. While not shooting many 3s caps his ceiling a bit, Allen's skillset can still render him an extremely effective fantasy player.
Ceiling: Top-50 short to mid term
Myles Turner was projected in the top-20 to 30 this season, and while he didn't live up to those expectations, it's easy to see his projected skillset being valued in that range. Cut down Turner's projected 3s to 0.5, a reasonable projection for Allen in the short term, and you end up with a top-50 type guy who will slot very easily into many builds. Players like Allen gain a lot of value in their versatility, and become solid, underappreciated fantasy assets for years.
Check back next week for another back of rookies as we move on with our analysis -- this class is so deep, we've still got plenty to cover!
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