RADIO
After being a preseason favorite in the West, last year's Rockets stumbled out of the gate, fired head coach Kevin McHale, and limped into the playoffs under interim coach J. B. Bickerstaff. This offseason they made big changes. First of all, Mike D’Antoni is now at the reigns of the Harden Express and his fast paced coaching style already has Houston in the right direction. D’Antoni has great playoff experience and will be able to help the Rockets in late game situations with creative offensive strategies. His offense is fun to watch and will mesh perfectly with a Rockets roster now that they've let Dwight Howard walk. To further fit with D'Antoni's game, they added even more shooting by adding two former New Orleans Pelicans, stretch-four Ryan Anderson and combo-guard Eric Gordon.
We all know what James Harden can do -- he is one of three or four players who have a case to be drafted first overall in fantasy leagues, and the hope under D'Antoni is that he'll see his numbers go even higher if they Rockets play at a faster pace, sacrificing defense for offense. I won't waste time with further superlatives -- let's get into what we can expect from the rest of the team under their new head coac.
Ryno Stretching the Floor
Ryan Anderson averaged 17.0 PPG for the Pelicans last year which would've be second behind only James Harden in scoring for the Rockets. Not only will he take pressure off of Harden, but he can score from anywhere on the court. He has great range and his 36% average from 3PT range actually puts him above Harden (to be fair to Harden, though, he creates his own shots, so they come with a higher degree of difficulty). Although Anderson has been known to be more of a bench scorer, there is no reason he shouldn't excel when in a starting role. Last year he averaged around 30.4 MPG, which might even increase in D'Antoni's system. The Rockets have little veteran depth across the board and sorely could use the help of Anderson. He will create space for the rest of the team and can be a centerpiece for the Houston offense. He can score in the low post as well as from the outside very efficiently and will be THE go-to forward in Houston.
Anderson is going to be a regular DFS play in D'Antoni's offense. He should be comfortable in it right away, since his coach in New Orleans, Alvin Gentry, was a former D'Antoni assistant in Phoenix. Anderson will be one of those players that can explode for 30 points for a fairly cheap price, if you look for the right matchups. In standard leagues, Anderson is fairly one-dimensional player as a points/threes option, but could be end up being an under-priced pick and a great fit as a big man on teams that are punting FG% or blocks. He'll likely come cheaper because of his checkered injury history, if that's an area where you're willing to gamble.
In New Orleans, Ryan Anderson had a usage rate of 24.7, the third most used player on the Pelicans. In Houston, Harden holds a 32.5% usage rate and is the most used, obviously. Among the select Rockets that played over 70 games, Dwight Howard was second with 18.4%. It is fair to assume that Anderson’s usage will take a hit and fall closer to the 19-20 range given how much Harden demands the ball. However, if he does add to his minutes per game, that would offset his usage rate. Regardless if his usage falls, he should be second on the team in usage and will be a big part of the offense. With Anderson being an elite shooter and playing alongside a force on the wing in Harden, less usage could work in his favor with increased efficiency, converting more attempts with less opportunities, and posting a better FG% for fantasy owners.
On the flip side, Ryan Anderson is not a good defender and that will be a thorn in the foot of the Rockets all season. Luckily, bad defense doesn't hurt you in fantasy as long as it doesn't get you benched. In fact, it might even help, as it allows the other team to score more points and force you to keep up. Incidentally, it also allows DFS owners to target the Rockets as a juicy matchup if they're going to be trotting out two subpar defenders in Harden and Anderson at the same time.
Eric Gordon: A Newly Made Sixth Man
Although Eric Gordon is coming off a shortened season, that doesn't hurt his draft value for me in seasonal leagues. But that is only because I believe Gordon should not be drafted at all. Gordon has not played more than 64 games since his rookie year, suffering injury after injury and constantly missing time. While none of his injuries seem all that related (last year it was a broken finger attempting to swipe a ball away from Rudy Gobert), I'm still not willing to invest in a guy who is so consistently hurt like Gordon is.
While his shooting has been as good as it's always been -- 38% from 3PT last year, with a career high 2.5 makes -- he doesn't produce much elsewhere outside of points and threes. While I said the same thing about Anderson, that's different -- Anderson naturally gets a few rebounds as a big man, and being a three point threat as a PF is much more useful in H2H category leagues where you're punting other big man stats. Your guards need to do other stuff.
The real problem is how Gordon is going to be able to produce in a 3 guard rotation with Harden and Beverley. It appears for now, he'll be the guy coming off the bench, which makes sense since his ability to create offense will be helpful when Harden sits, with Beverly being a better fit alongside Harden for his defense. He could do well as a 6th man in the D'Antoni offense, nonetheless -- look at what Leandro Barbosa did in his prime as 6th man for the Suns offense. At least this means they won't have to play Jason Terry close to 30 minutes anymore.
His streakiness is concerning and I believe that he will not be a consistent fantasy asset in standard leagues given his lack of production elsewhere when his shot's not falling. He is also now playing with James Harden, who will eat up possessions for Houston. Last year, Gordon played a massive role in the Pelicans offense (often starting alongside a distributor with Jrue Holiday leading the bench units). He will be used in that way in spurts to rest Harden, but he'll still have to share the floor some of the time with Harden, so his usage will take a step back. In seasonal leagues, there are options with much higher upside throughout the draft who won't have the injury downside of Gordon. I'm taking a hard pass. In DFS, Gordon is another strictly matchup play like Anderson. Against a team with weaker defensive guards, he could be a great cheaper DFS option. He'd also be tremendous option were Harden to miss any games... but Harden has only missed one game (as a result of a suspension) in the last two years, so that's unlikely.
Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela, and Everyone Else
While Patrick Beverley can be a nice deeper league option, Trevor Ariza and Clint Capela should be the only other two players on your fantasy basketball radar in standard leagues. Trevor Ariza is going to continue to get plenty of playing time as a defensive anchor. Not only can he defend but Ariza has proven to be a bit of a menace when he finds his shot. He contributes mostly in 3s there. However, that is going to fade with Anderson and Gordon taking up more outside shots. His age may be concerning as he's now 31 and adding Gordon could mean Ariza will see less minutes. He'll still be a quality contributor in steals with a few threes, but you should probably expect decline in his numbers from recent seasons.
Clint Capela now has a huge opportunity to start with Dwight Howard is out of the picture. Unfortunately, Ryan Anderson will likely steal a lot of the potential scoring from Clint as Anderson is a more versatile offensive threat. The 22-year-old Capela averaged a little under 20 minutes-per-game last season and contributed 6.4 PPG along with 6.0 RPG, 0.8 steals and 1.2 blocks. Capela is going to be under the basket and should be the top rebounder for the Rockets, as well as a nice source of defensive stats. I don't think he will get quite the run to be a consistent double-double candidate -- he started 35 games last year, after all, and still only averaged 23.5 minutes per game in those.
The biggest problem for Capela is inability to convert FTs -- 37% last season. In roto leagues, this will make him basically unplayable, while in H2H leagues he may be best left for teams punting FT%.
The Rockets will be a new team and turn some heads but for fantasy, most of that production is still going to be going to select few players, and primarily to James Harden. Ryan Anderson is the only other player I'm expecting to be a decent pick at his draft value. I'm passing on Gordon's injury concerns, Ariza's age, and Capela's poor free throw shooting.
