Just like second base, shortstop is a deep position this year. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the tiers.

As before, this round of rankings features picks from Kyle Bishop, Nick Mariano, Bill Dubiel, Brad Johnson, Harris Yudin and myself.

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2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Shortstops (March Updates)

Shortstop Rankings Analysis

Tier One

We all agree on Machado. After him, the disagreement begins. I wrote about my thoughts on Bogaerts versus Correa versus Seager here (https://dev.rotoballer.com/xander-bogaerts-rankings-debate-comparing-rotoballers-rankers/370724). Between Bogaerts’ track record and desire to steal more bases, I have him slightly ahead of that pack as a potential .300/20/20 player with a high floor; I moved Correa right next to Bogaerts, but kept the separation with Seager. Seager’s ranking partially reflects his oblique injury, as we often hear of players who have a down year reveal afterward that their oblique injury never fully healed.

The player on whom I disagree with my fellow rankers most is Trevor Story. He only played 97 games in 2015 due to injury, but he was on a 162-game pace of .272/45/112/120/13. Wow. Yes, he strikes out a lot (31.3%), but that should improve with age. More importantly, he hits a ton of fly balls (47.1%), and he makes a lot of hard contact (44.9%). That batted ball profile plus Coors screams home runs. He also had 25 doubles plus triples. He stole 22, 26, and 23 bases in his last three minor league seasons, so he should continue to run at 24 years old. He is still in a strong lineup in Coors, so the run production should remain. Why draft a Corey Seager or a Carlos Correa a full round ahead of him, when they haven’t far exceeded his production to date and don’t have better upside in 2017? I certainly wouldn’t.

Tier Two

Villar belongs in tier one. He qualifies at multiple positions, plays in a park great for righty power, plays on a team that likes to run, and is coming off a year of .285/19/92/63/62. While regression is likely, he was top a top five talent last year according to z-scores; how far should we expect him to fall?

While Lindor is behind the aforementioned players in my rankings, there’s still an argument for him in the first tier. Every once in a while I allow myself a gut feeling, ant that is the case here. It simply feels like Lindor has room for improvement after going .301/15/99/78/19 last year as a 22-year-old and finishing as a top 50 talent.

Jean Segura is well ahead of Diaz for me, although I am higher on both of these two than most of our rankers. Segura posted a .319/20/102/64/33 line last year. He has always produced the steals, putting up totals of 44, 20, and 25 the prior three years. The average and homers were outliers. While he did not trim his strikeout rate, he did post career highs in hard-hit percentage, line drive percentage, and fly ball percentage, so the better year was no fluke. There is reason to believe that at 27 years old he can maintain some of these gains, and even if the average and power dip somewhat to .280 and 15, the run production (ahead of Cano, Cruz and Seager) and 30 steals make him a top talent.

Aledmys Diaz hit .300/17/71/65/4 last year in 111 games, which is a 162-game pace of .300/25/104/95/6. Now behind on-base-machine Dexter Fowler, with Carpenter and Piscotty behind him, his run production could improve. With an 8.9% BB ratio and only a 13.0% K-rate, he should maintain his high average (which only relied on a modest .312 BABIP). He is only 26 and seemed to turn it on at the end of 2015 in the minors. I’m buying.

Tier Three

My biggest gripe on the shortstop rankings is that my fellow rankers have this third tier of players ranked way too highly. I would avoid nearly all of them where my colleagues are ranking them. These players are not only well behind tier two for me, but they are also no better or worse than many players in my tiers four and five. Let’s get to specifics.

Addison Russell is a great defender, but that won’t help you in fantasy. He did improve his ISO (.147 to .179), improve his walk rate (8.0 to 9.2%) and cut his strikeouts (28.5 to 22.6%). And, he is only 23. But what is next? He is a low batting average hitter with power. While he did increase his power output to 21 homers, he only had 49 total extra base hits, so he was not a doubles’ hitter who is going to turn them into homers. How is that different than Brad Miller or Marcus Semien going much later, or better than Aledmys Diaz going a round later?

Troy Tulowitzki is 32 and hasn’t played over 131 games since 2011. He isn’t that player we remember from Colorado. He has two steals the past two years. In 655 at bats in Toronto, he has hit .250. He has power, and he could produce some runs, but with the lack of average and speed, coupled with his age and injury history, there are much better options.

Dansby Swanson is believed by many to be a future hall-of-famer, and is a former top overall pick. In 84 AA games last year, he hit .261 with eight homers and six steals. In 38 MLB games, he hit .302 with three homers and three steals. BUT, that average was supported by a .383 BABIP. Expect a lower average, and even if those power and speed numbers improve, he was just above a double-digit homer and steal pace last year. While Swanson is a great long-term asset, for 2017 there are higher floor and ceiling options to take later.

Tier Four

Who are some of those options?  Meet Javier Baez, Marcus Semien, Elvis Andrus and Brad Miller. I thought I was high on Javy Baez until I saw his ADP. He is being drafted at 122^nd, but I have him at 165th.  Why do my fellow rankers have him even lower? He is a 24-year-old former top prospect who has multipositional eligibility. He cut down his strikeouts and has speed and power. He found playing time last year and likely will continue to do so. After going .273/14/50/59/12 last year, he shined in the playoffs and could have a big 2017.

Marcus Semien posted a .238/27/72/75/10 line despite playing 105 of his games batting seventh or lower. His strikeout rate (and Steamer projections) are more consistent with a .250ish average. Hitting higher in a now deeper lineup, he should produce more runs. While his batted ball profile suggests the homers will drop some, even if he went .250/20/80/80/10, he is giving you more or equal value to those my fellow rankers have a tier ahead. And he could do better. Semien still is only 26 years old. Grab him if he falls.

Tier Five

Jose Reyes and Tim Anderson are down another tier? WHY? I still have them ahead of Tulowitzki, Russell, and Swanson. I won’t repeat my case for Reyes, as I laid out my argument for him as a sleeper here: https://dev.rotoballer.com/2017-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-jose-reyes/370805. In 99 MLB games last year, Anderson hit .283 with 9 homers and 10 steals. In 55 AAA games, it was .304 with four homers and 11 steals. The year before in AA? .312 with five homers and 49 steals. Why would he be two tiers below Swanson?

Arcia, likewise, has the speed and is on a team that loves to run. In a third of a season last year, he stole eight bases with four homers. He hit .219, but that was due to a .267 BABIP. Arcia very well could hit around .260 with ten homers this year while swiping over 20 bags. Sure, he likely has a lower floor in most of the categories than the others, but his speed keeps him borderline relevant even if he struggles elsewhere. And at his age, the power could start to click.

Tier Six and below

Tier six is pretty boring to me. Galvis went .241/20/61/67/17 in 2016, so he’s ahead of the pack. No, I did not forget about J.P. Crawford, but Galvis’s upside is so much higher than the rest of this group that he’s the most draftable asset.

Deep in the weeds, our best bet at a four-leaf clover is Chris Owings, who others seem to like more than I do. Nonetheless, he did hit .277 with 21 steals in 119 games last year, and he had had a handful of homers. He is still just 25 years old; with injury concerns surrounding Yasmany Tomas and A.J. Pollock, I would move him up in my rankings. Jurickson Profar should also be added to watch lists, although his prospect pedigree may have others ranking him ahead of where they should.

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