RADIO
We now have ten weeks of football in the books, and the fantasy season will be over before we know it. If anything, this should be a reminder to slow down and enjoy the regular season. Once we are in the off-season, there’s no looking back.
A lot happened last weekend. We saw some players take a step forward in their development, and we also saw some players not play to expectations. One of our goals while building our fantasy football teams throughout the season is to identify which players are about the faceplant so those players won’t drive our fantasy teams to the ground.
Identifying the warning signals will allow you to know which players to stay away from. Many of these players are dealing with changes in their situation. They could be coming back from an injury or losing some of their workload to another player. Nonetheless, we have to know which players are trending downward so we can make the best decisions for our weekly lineups.
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Quarterback Concerns - Sit 'Em For Week 11?
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Jones is exceeding expectations so far this year, as many thought he was going to struggle during his rookie season. Last week against the Cleveland Browns, he passed for 198 yards and three touchdowns, making the QB4 for Week 10. This was his second QB1 performance of the season. His first QB1 performance came against the New York Jets in Week 7.
No warning signals are being shot off into the air, and I'm not stating that he’s a bad player. But fantasy managers need to be aware of Jones’ fantasy upside, and it’s important to not chase fantasy points. Jones only has one game with over 300 passing yards and only three games with over five rushing yards.
Jones is a fantasy asset who is dependent on the game script for him to be relevant in fantasy. He needs to pass for over 300 yards, which he has accomplished just once, or he needs to toss three touchdowns to hit the QB1 mark. Jones doesn’t have the rushing floor to bail him out, and the Patriots don’t need to rely on the passing game to win games. They have a sound defense, and they can bully opposing defenses with their rushing attack.
The Patriots will be heavy favorites in this week’s contest against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense is allowing 246.22 passing yards per game, and Vegas has a 47.5 over/under set for this game. We saw the Falcons get lit up by that Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, and there’s a good chance this game could break open, allowing Jones to produce in the box score. However, he’s also a risky start due to his lack of rushing production and limited passing volume.
What To Do
Fantasy managers should only think about starting Jones if they don’t have a reliable option at quarterback. There’s a chance he hits this week -- however, due to the sheer nature of the Patriots’ offense, he's a risky proposition in fantasy.
Running Back Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 11?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
There’s a good chance we will see Clyde Edwards-Helaire back in the lineup in Week 11. It’s exciting to see him back on the field again, but he hasn’t taken a snap since Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately, we will have to pump the breaks before we go all-in on him.
Darrel Williams stole the show on Sunday night against the Las Vegas Raiders -- he rushed for 43 yards and caught nine balls for 101 yards and a touchdown. It appears he has earned a much larger role in the offense. If the coaching staff decides to ride the hot hand, then we could see Williams receive a large bulk of the carries, making it harder for Edwards-Helaire to maximize his fantasy upside.
The Chiefs will be hosting the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday. The Cowboys rank ninth in the league, allowing 101.22 rushing yards per game. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with a projected point total of 56 points. This is a promising matchup for all players who are playing in this matchup, and fantasy gamers are expecting this contest to light up the scoreboard.
But we may have to worry about CEH being on a pitch count. The team might decide to ease him in, since they have been able to rely on other running backs with him being out of the lineup. If this happens, he might struggle to provide enough fantasy production.
What To Do
Fantasy managers should only think about starting Edwards-Helaire if they need to fill a void for the running back or flex spot in their lineups. The best practice would be to observe his usage this week, and see if he receives a large enough workload to be productive. There’s a chance he gets a chance to cross the goal line and catch some passes, but it’s hard to imagine the team letting him be the feature back when Williams has currently been running hot.
Wide Receiver Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 11?
Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders
Bryan Edwards caught three balls for 88 yards and one touchdown last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. He finished Week 10 as the WR10 with 17.80 PPR fantasy points, and this was his first WR1 performance of the season. Fantasy managers who had him in their lineups enjoyed the splash production from Edwards.
Even though Edwards had his first big game of the season, he still only received a 12 percent share of the targets -- it’s always better to chase workload and not fantasy points. He has received a decent dose of four targets in five of his last six games -- but with that type of mediocre volume, Edwards will need to make his targets count for him to matter in fantasy.
The Raiders will be hosting the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday, and the over/under is set at 50 points for this contest. The Bengals rank 24th in the league defending the pass with 260.33 passing yards allowed per game, so this should be a prime situation for all receivers in this matchup.
What To Do
Fantasy gamers should only think about starting Edwards if they don’t have any better options on their roster. He’s an upside play this week who also has a low floor, so there’s a chance he busts in your lineup. If you want to be risk-averse, then you might want to leave him on your bench. If you need to gamble on a player's upside, then you might think about putting Edwards in your lineups. He has received a 31 percent share of the team's air yards in the last three weeks -- and with him consistently receiving deep targets, there's a chance he converts a few of them into big plays.
Tight End Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 11?
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
As of now, Kyler Murray’s status is up in the air for his Week 11 game against the Seattle Seahawks. With Murray out of the lineup, Ertz has not been able to hit double-digit fantasy points -- he has averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game in his last three games. In general, he has been averaging five targets per game ever since he made his debut with the Cardinals in Week 7 against the Houston Texans.
Like most tight ends, Ertz feels like a touchdown-dependent option right now. He’s getting enough targets in the passing game to make something happen, but not enough to make him a consistent top-tier fantasy asset. The Cardinals' offense is good enough to fuel his production, but there’s a lot of mouths to feed in the offense -- and the target distribution will change once DeAndre Hopkins is back to full health.
What To Do
Arizona will be traveling to Seattle to play the Seahawks in Week 11, and Vegas has the over/under set at 49 points. Seattle’s defense ranks 29th in the NFL with 275.33 passing yards allowed per game. With this being a divisional matchup, we should expect fireworks from this contest, but Ertz isn’t a guarantee to deliver TE1 production. We should just expect him to be a volatile gamble like most tight ends. He’s startable this week, but fantasy managers will need to realize he’s an unpredictable asset.
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