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If you find yourself in a 14+ team league, or in a TE premium league (start 2 TEs or give 1.5 PPR to TEs only) it looks like a good year to wait on the position in the draft. There are a lot of guys outside the top ten which offer plenty of upside.
If I don’t grab Rob Gronkowski in the first two rounds (because he is truly in a class of his own), I find myself waiting late and grabbing a couple low-cost guys with upside. Here I’ll look at three tight ends being drafted outside the top 15 that could easily exceed their ADP and find fantasy relevance.
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Jordan Reed (Current ADP: TE28)
Fantasy owners tend to avoid the guys with glaring issues that might make them look foolish such as old players and high injury risks. So much so that these players often come at an extreme bargain and don’t always fall into their seemingly obvious pitfalls.
Jordan Reed burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2013 with a 5 game stretch where he had two touchdowns and averaged 76 yards per game. Then the injuries arrived and we’ve only had occasional glimpses of production since. Reed had a severe concussion in 2013 that put him on the IR and dealt with multiple hamstring injuries in 2014. Even though his 2014 numbers don’t stick out (50 rec for 465 yards and ZERO touchdowns), Pro Football Focus tells us he was still a top receiving tight end. He was ranked as the third tight end in yards per route run ahead of guys like Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett. He was even ahead of Jimmy Graham in YPRR though he obviously lacks the touchdown potential of Graham. When Reed was on the field he was still performing.
The injury risk remains but this is a talent I will take a chance on because if he were to stay on the field, he could very easily be a top 10 tight end. That’s a big if but at such a cheap price it’s worth it to grab that upside. He’s being drafted well behind guys with no upside at all like Jared Cook and Heath Miller. I think some people worry that Niles Paul is a threat to win the starting job outright but his blocking ability is a serious issue while Jordan Reed has been an average blocker in his two seasons. Niles Paul was one of the very worst last year, ranking as 62nd of 67 tight ends in PFF’s run blocking grade. With Reed’s superior blocking skills and excellent receiving ability, I don’t see Paul as a threat as long as Reed is healthy.
Tyler Eifert (Current ADP: TE24)
Tyler Eifert is another player whose value has suffered as a result of injuries. Eifert played just eight snaps before suffering a dislocated elbow, ending his season. It’s a shame because Eifert was set to play an increased role in the Bengals offense and had an impressive three receptions for 37 yards in those 8 snaps alone. We’ll never know what he might have done last year but I remain hopeful for 2015.
The Bengals did not resign Jermaine Gresham which is a big plus for Eifert and the number of targets he may see. They did draft Tyler Kroft in the 3rd round this year but he wasn’t much of a receiver in college and shouldn’t be much of a threat in his rookie season anyway. That makes Eifert the uncontested starting tight end for the Bengals. Last year Jermaine Gresham saw 78 targets and in 2013 Eifert and Gresham combined for 119 targets in a more pass-heavy offense.
In my piece about Marvin Jones, I made a case for the Bengals moving to a more pass heavy offense once again with the improved health of their receivers. Eifert is a major part of that and I think he should see at least 90 targets this year, possibly more. 90 alone would put him in the top ten targeted TEs last year and would be enough volume to make him fantasy relevant. All of the 15 tight ends with at least 80 targets finished inside the top 20 fantasy TEs last year. With Eifert’s athleticism and mismatch potential he could be a lot better. His dislocated elbow isn’t likely to be a recurring problem like a concussion so I find it really hard to justify why Eifert is going so low. Definitely take advantage of that one.
Ladarius Green (Current ADP: TE20)
Maybe everyone was a year too early on Ladarius Green. The hype train got a little out of control by the end of the 2014 preseason and Green was being taken over Antonio Gates a lot of the time! Green did put up some ridiculous numbers in limited time in 2013 but couldn’t repeat last year. Things seem to be lining up for Green to become a post-hype sleeper following Gates’ 4-game suspension.
Even if Green is only relevant for those four games he is still worth grabbing in deeper leagues. He could be a real difference maker. Not many 6’6” guys can run a 4.53 40 time. Similar to Jordan Reed, Green’s numbers last year don’t impress while on the field. Green didn’t even play enough snaps to qualify in the yards per route run rankings, but if he did he would have been right behind Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen with the 6th most.
I expect low-end TE1 numbers for those first four games but it’s entirely possible the production keeps going. There are two reasons this might happen. First, Green might play so well that the Chargers feel forced to keep him in a relevant role even with Gates becoming starter. Second, Gates is 35 years old. A lot of people predicted a major decline last year and it didn’t happen. This might be the year. It’s possible that Gates puts up another TE1 year but Ladarius Green is basically free and should be decently productive for four games with a chance for more. That’s somebody I'd like to grab late.
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