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Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, and your fantasy draft is likely just around the corner. As part of RotoBaller's ongoing effort to help you win your leagues, we're previewing all 30 MLB teams. In these articles, we discuss each team's offseason moves, as well as their hitters, pitchers, and prospects.
Today's installment covers the 2017 St. Louis Cardinals Team Outlook, and previews their potential fantasy baseball contributions.
Editor's note: for even more draft prep, visit our awesome 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It has lots of in-depth staff rankings and draft strategy columns. You will find tiered rankings for every position, 2017 impact rookie rankings, AL/NL only league ranks and lots more. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
Offseason Moves
The Redbirds opened up the offseason by signing their skipper Mike Matheny to a three-year extension through 2020 in November. St. Louis focused most of its attention on improving the bullpen depth. The Cardinals inked free-agent reliever Brett Cecil to a four-year deal. They also resigned relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist to one-year contracts. Cecil and Siegrist could be a valuable in leagues that account for holds in 2017. Rosenthal's production declined last season, so he is expected to receive less late-inning opportunities next year.
St. Louis dealt starter Jaime García to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for pitchers John Gant and Chris Ellis along with second baseman Luke Dykstra. None of these players will be fantasy relevant this upcoming season. The franchise also agreed to a five-year extension with starter Carlos Martinez, who holds second-man rotation value in all fantasy leagues.
The squad's biggest splash of the offseason was the signing of outfielder Dexter Fowler to a five-year contract. He brings some solid fantasy value as a second or third outfielder in all leagues. The Cardinals also resigned first baseman Matt Adams to a one-year deal. Adams won't see much playing time since Matt Carpenter will be the primary first baseman in 2017.
Hitting Overview
As long as he remains healthy, Carpenter is projected to be St. Louis' top fantasy performer next season. He will be a three-position eligible player at first, second and third base. Depending on where you plan to play Carpenter should dictate how you value his draft stock. He is a top-15 first baseman and due to the positions great depth. As a second and third baseman, Carpenter is in the top-10. He should be drafted slightly later in the early rounds as a first baseman than as a second or third baseman.
Shortstop Aledmys Diaz enjoyed a stellar rookie campaign in 2016. While it is unlikely he will hit .300 again with his 15.6% LD% last year, he should pump out at least 15 HR and decent RBI and run scored totals. Kolten Wong will be the primary second baseman for the Cardinals. He is more of a deep NL-only play, and should see positive regression from his .268 BABIP in last season.
Third baseman Jedd Gyorko is an interesting case. He nearly doubled his HR output from 16 to 30 two season ago. He increased his FB% and Pull% while maintaining a solid Hard%. However, his average fly ball distance not only decrease by approximately six feet to 283.89 feet, but also that average does not correlate well with a 24.4% HR/FB. According to StatCast, Gyorko had ideal results from his barrels, which led to such a spike in homers. Because there is no research on the year-to-year correlation of a batter's barrels, he shouldn't be trusted to repeat 30 dingers. A floor of 20 HR is more plausible.
Yadier Molina will continue to be the everyday catching duties. He won't hit for much power, but he will run an above-average BA that will merit a mid-round draft choice in the majority of leagues.
As mentioned previously, Fowler is a quality fantasy player for 2017. He is a great on-base guy with double-digit pop and speed potential. The rest of the outfield, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, should be pegged for 20-homer seasons.
Pitching Overview
Besides Martinez who has already been touched upon, the rest of St. Louis' rotation is quite lackluster. Coming of an injury-shortened season, Adam Wainwright struggled mightily through the bulk of 2017. At age 35 and with the taxing workload he has amassed over his career, Wainwright might be entering the declining phase. Fantasy owners should tread lightly when it comes to Wainwright, especially with a batted ball profile that supports the HR/FB spike he endured.
Mike Leake's iffy season in 2016 was due in part to some poor luck. He concluded the season with a .318 BABIP and a 65.6% LOB%, both strayed from his career marks of .293 and 73.3%. He might be worth a flier in some NL-only leagues. Michael Wacha is in the same boat as well, and should be considered in deeper NL-Only's. Lance Lynn is also figured to compete for a spot in the rotation. He is coming off of Tommy John surgery, so it is tough to predict his outlook. If he's anywhere close to the pitcher he was pre-surgery, he is a mid-rotation piece in all leagues.
Aside from Cecil and Siegrist, Cardinals' closer Seung Hwan Oh will be one of the top closers in fantasy drafts. With a 132.9% K%, 5.8% BB%, 40% GB% and a nasty slide piece, Oh will certainly rack up saves in 2017.
Prospects Overview
Alex Reyes would have been the top St. Louis prospect to own in fantasy leagues this season, but with his impending Tommy John surgery, that won't be the case in 2017. Luke Weaver is the next MLB-ready pitching prospect for St. Louis. He already has 36.1 IP under his belt from his 2016 debut and showcases superb command. Carson Kelly is the top catching prospect in the show, but will most likely begin the season at Triple-A where he can receive full playing time. He becomes an immediate player to target on the waivers should Molina be placed on the DL as he likely leapfrogs Brayan Pena and becomes the starter behind the dish for St. Louis.
Conclusion
The St. Louis Cardinals are the second-best team in the NL Central, behind the World Series champion Chicago Cubs, and presume to compete for a playoff spot in 2017. Fantasy owners will have a handful of players on both sides of the ball to choose from on draft day.
