RADIO
A long Week One in the books, and now we've got some data to really get into! It's the weekend so that means it's time for all of RotoBaller's fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups content, as we prepare you for Week 2 - April 18th through April 24th.
I'm Jon Anderson and I'm once again rocking this weekly piece. Every Sunday, we'll go over several starting pitchers that are quite possibly available on your league's waiver wire. We typically target around 50% rostered or lower. We'll also split this post into two sections, one for shallower leagues and one for deeper leagues. The most confident recommendations will, of course, fall in the shallow league part.
An important note - this isn't a streamer article. I'm not concerning myself much with the matchups this week, these are pitchers that I think may prove good enough to stick on your roster and be guys you start all season long. What I am most concerned about with starting pitchers is strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground-ball rate. I won't often delve deep into the rich pitching data, because I really don't think we need to when evaluating fantasy pitching. Strikeouts, walks, and home run rates have proven to be excellent indicators of future performance, so if it ain't broken - don't fix it!
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Waiver Wire Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves (63% Rostered)
The Braves' righty has now hurled 11 innings this season and has been masterful. He has struck out 15 batters while walking just one and not surrendering a single homer or even a barrel. His curveball (40% CSW%) and changeup (41% CSW%) have complemented his 95mph sinker (54% GB%) very well. Overall, he has the league's eighth-best CSW% for pitchers that have made at least two starts.
He appears to have really turned a corner here, and he should be widely rostered ahead of Week Two.
Carlos Carrasco, New York Mets (48% Rostered)
It's been a bumpy ride for Carrasco over the last few seasons. He has not gone past 80 innings since the 2018 season and he's now 35-years-old. That gave fantasy players a ton of pause on drafting him this year, as you can tell by the fact that he's still available in the majority of leagues. He has looked quite strong in his first two outings of the year now, and it may just be time to hop back on Carrasco.
In his first start of the year, he racked up 10 whiffs on 72 pitches against the Nationals, a strong 14% SwStr%. For his follow-up, he struck out eight Diamondbacks over five scoreless innings and extended the pitch count to 82 pitches. He looks like his old self again. This may not be a long-term add, since it would seem unlikely that he can stay on schedule all year with how few innings he's managed over the last few years, but right now he is pitching like someone who should be rostered and started in most situations.
Matt Brash, Seattle Mariners (44% Rostered)
Brash looked magnificent in his Major League debut, racking up six strikeouts on 85 pitches and walking just one. His curveball earned a 41% CSW% and a 17% SwStr%, and the slider also worked well with marks of a 27% CSW% and a 27% SwStr%. He did not get a whiff with the four-seamer, his most-used pitch, but every single batted ball was hit on the ground. The fastball averages 96 miles per hour and he came out throwing a lot of strikes.
Very early to make any for-sure judgments on Brash, but it was an encouraging start to the career of a very talented pitcher, and he should be rostered for the upside.
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks (26% Rostered)
Kelly looks like a new pitcher this season, adding velocity to his entire arsenal (averaging 93 mph on his fastball now, up a couple of ticks). In two starts, he's posted a strong 31% CSW% with an 11.7% SwStr% and not a single home run allowed yet (4.8% Brl%). Most importantly, he has struck out 13 batters over 9.1 innings. He has also walked four batters, which is alarming, but he has faced two pretty patient offenses in San Diego and Houston. Right now, Kelly looks like a much-improved pitcher.
The problem here is that we've seen Kelly for quite a while now, so it's harder to imagine that he's suddenly a really great fantasy asset. We'll have to keep a close eye on him and not get too locked into these first two starts, but for right now I think Kelly should be.
Waiver Wire Pickups for Deeper Leagues
Nick Martinez, San Diego Padres (8% Rostered)
Another rookie year, this time the Padres' variety. Martinez threw 83 pitches in his debut and racked up 13 whiffs and six strikeouts while walking just one batter and not surrendering a barrel. He threw four different pitches, including a four-seamer and cutter fastball combination that worked exceptionally well (40% and 39% CSW%, respectively). His changeup was a wipeout pitch with a ridiculous 28% swinging-strike rate on 18 offerings.
The fact that he threw 83 pitches is also very encouraging, as it means the Padres want to use him as a more or less traditional starter. It was a very encouraging first start and he should be picked up in most spots. Unfortunately for Martinez, things didn't go very well in his second start yesterday. He showed issues throwing strikes and got hit pretty hard at times. For that reason, he's not a priority pickup right now, but he's certainly someone to keep an eye on and add in very deep leagues.
Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics (4% Rostered)
Blackburn put a beautiful 38% CSW% and a 17% SwStr% in his first start of the year against the Rays, and then more than held his own yesterday against the Blue Jays, holding that juggernaut offense to two runs over five innings while not walking a batter or giving up a homer.
This is a guy precisely nobody was tracking before the year, so it could very well just be a mirage, but the early signs are looking really good, and it's a plus that the Blue Jays matchup is out of the way now.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Dodgers (20% Rostered)
It was the debut we wanted to see from Heaney, throwing 4.1 innings on 67 pitches and racking up a huge 37% CSW% and a 28% K% against the Twins. Even more encouraging was the quality of contact metrics, as he did not surrender a single barrel and posted a 58% GB% (7/12 balls in play on the ground). All of that was on some heavy curveball usage. He threw the uncle charlie 31 times to go along with his four-seamer which he threw 30 times, and then he sprinkled in a few sliders and changeups (three of each) to keep hitters off balance.
The Dodgers were a great landing spot for a pitcher like Heaney, and if his first start is any sign - he should be in for a pretty decent year on the mound.
Others to consider: Tony Gonsolin, Jameson Taillon, Josiah Gray
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