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Week three of fantasy baseball is upon us, and we have seen a lot of exciting developments on the starting pitcher scene. Plenty of guys are popping up here, especially guys we really weren't tracking much in the pre-season.
Finding breakout starting pitchers is one of the most fun parts of the game, and it's actually a pretty easy thing to do if you know what stats to look for. The results so far, as usual, have some good names and bad, but mostly we've been pretty successful overall. We identified Kyle Wright, Carlos Carrasco, Alex Cobb, and Andrew Heaney just before they went on to post great outings, so I hope we can continue to churn out some good recommendations.
There are still plenty of great potential starters on the waiver wire, so let's go to it. Here are your starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups recommendations for week three of the fantasy season (April 24th - May 1st).
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Waiver Wire Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees (52% Rostered)
It seems as though some people have abandoned Montgomery after a bit of a slow start to the year. However, since his first bad outing of the year that had a lot to do with getting struck by a comebacker, he has bounced back very nicely. He currently sits with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 14.1 innings. The downside is that the strikeouts have not been there as he has posted just an 18% strikeout rate through these three outings.
Given Montgomery's career 23% strikeout rate, I would be very confident the strikeouts will bounce back up as we get closer to a real data sample. The biggest positive so far has been the quality of contact numbers. He has allowed just a 2.5% barrel rate, not a single homer, and has earned a 46.5% GB%. That's a very important thing for him to do in Yankees Stadium against some of these all-star hitters he has to face in that division, but Montgomery has proven to be a solid fantasy option over the years and he should absolutely be more than 52% rostered.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins (45% Rostered)
Ober was drafted in most leagues this year, and viewed as more of a "solid floor" option for the Twins this year. He didn't have a great strikeout rate last year and did not flash much ceiling for fantasy purposes, but he was solid and ate innings. So far this year, it's been about that. He has just a 20% strikeout rate, but a really strong 5% walk rate. He has given up two homers early on to Andrew Vaughn and Mitch Haniger, which was something he struggled with as a rookie, giving up 1.9 HR/9 in 2021. Interestingly, he gave up almost no homers in the minors, giving up way fewer than one homer per nine innings in his career below the Majors.
If you are in a league that rewards strikeout rates over raw strikeout totals, Ober might fit more into the "deep league" category here, but any young pitcher that is throwing a good amount of pitches and innings that is this good at limiting walks is on my radar, and I think Ober should be rostered more than he is currently.
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (39% Rostered)
Astros manager Dusty Baker suggested that Javier will join a six-man rotation here as the Astros go through a stretch of weeks with a bunch of games on the schedule. He also certainly has the leg-up on Jake Odorizzi moving forward given age and recent performance.
So far this year, out of the bullpen, Javier has dominated to the tune of a 38.7% K% and a 3.2% BB%. He has also not allowed a single homer, which is something he struggled mightily with in his first seasons as a Major Leaguer. Javier has always, always posted really high strikeout rates, and he is nearly impossible to hit as a right-handed batter. He's filthy, and he's even already pretty close to stretched out as he's thrown 50+ pitches in his last two relief outings. He's probably a must-roster if he's in the Astros rotation and throwing 75+ pitches per outing. That will probably take a start or two to get there, so it might be in your best interest to wait a week and then try to add him - but you just might miss out on him if you do so. Keep in mind how aggressive your league-mates are, and add Javier accordingly.
Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics (29% Rostered)
Blackburn had a very short outing this week against the Orioles, as he reached just 4.2 innings and was pulled after 62 pitches. However, he was pitching just fine in that outing (four strikeouts, no walks, no barrels, no homers), so I wouldn't fret over that.
For the year, the previously unknown Blackburn has a sparkling 35.4% CSW%, a strong 25.5% K, and an elite 1.8% BB%. He's also kept the ball on the ground with a 52.5% GB%. It's not fun to roster an Athletics pitcher with this putrid of an offense behind him, but Blackburn has looked legitimate on the mound and should be rostered for now.
Waiver Wire Pickups for Deeper Leagues
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals (42% Rostered)
The Gray hype is growing, as he's put up a beautiful 31% K% in his 13 innings so far. He's won two of his starts and put up a solid 3.13 ERA.
The reason to doubt, and the reason we're in the deep leagues section for Gray, is the lack of command. His season WHIP sits at an ugly 1.33, which is due to a gross 12% walk rate. That was his issue last year as well (11%), and it's really hard to trust a pitcher who walks this many hitters. He also has continued to give up some hard contact. After allowing a ridiculous 2.4 homers per last season, he's already given up two in his 13 innings (Daulton Varsho and Jeff McNeil).
I'm not adding Gray in shallow leagues, but for deep leagues, he's worth an add because the ceiling is massive if he can just throw more strikes.
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins (26% Rostered)
It's going to take much more than two good starts to get me on Paddack, but he's someone we should talk about. Through nine innings this year, he's yet to walk a batter or give up a homer. His four-seam fastball is also performing much better (this is the key to the whole thing with Paddack), as it's posted a really high 18% SwStr%. That makes his low 18% strikeout rate pretty surprising.
I'm still not adding Paddack personally, but we remember what he did in his rookie year back in 2019, so it's possible he's gotten some of that elite command back and his fastball will indeed be good enough to setup his great changeup for success this year. It can happen with Paddack, but again, I'm going to watch at least two more starts from him before I dive in.
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds (23% Rostered)
The Reds other rookie pitcher has come out of the gate pretty well, with a nice 25.5% K% and a 57% GB%. The bad side is the 10.6% BB%, which needs watched closely.
His second start of the year really caught my eye, as he generated eight strikeouts and eight ground-balls over five innings against the Padres while racking up 16 whiffs, a large number. We really, really need to see Lodolo manage the walks better, but it does help to have that high of a ground-ball rate if you're going to allow a few extra base-runners. I firmly believe in the ground-ball rate with Lodolo, as his main pitch is a heavy sinker (averaging 94.2 mph) that has performed well so far (33.3% CSW%, 9.1% SwStr%, 54.5% GB%). If he cuts that walk rate below 9%, it could be a really good rookie season for Lodolo.
Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers (42% Rostered)
His fastball isn't good, and it's a short arsenal (mainly a thee-pitch guy), but he does have a nice slider. So far, that slider has posted a great 23.3% SwStr% and 27.4% CSW%, both strong numbers for a breaking ball.
Tony G caught some eyes this week taking a perfect game pretty deep into his start against the mighty Braves. He did strike out just three batters in that start and ended up walking three as well, so not an overly convincing strong start there behind the box score. I'm not adding Gonsolin unless it's a very deep league, but he's got a spot locked in the rotation for the Dodgers with Heaney on the shelf, and you could probably do much worse on your waiver wire.
Keegan Thompson, Chicago Cubs (14% Rostered)
This recommendation might just make me lose my entire reputation, but hey - Thompson has looked good so far this year. He's gone 13.1 innings, with a 36.2% CSW%, a 12.6% SwStr%, a 29.8% K%, a 6.4% BB%, and a 62% GB%. If these were numbers a high-profile rookie were putting up, I'd be adding him in every single league. Maybe we should be a little bit more gracious to Thompson because of this.
We'll keep an eye on Thompson for now without adding him, but if the numbers I just mentioned stay anywhere near where they are now over his next couple of starts, he's going to be someone I'm urging people to add.
Bonus: Long Relievers to Add (If They Enter The Rotation)
Michael King, New York Yankees (43.3% CSW%, 45% K%, 2.5% BB%)
Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates (36.4% CSW%, 32.3% K%, 9.7% BB%)
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