RADIO
The starting pitching pool is wavering (some pun intended!) a bit this week, as a lot of the names we've been talking about for weeks have finally been picked up in over 50% of leagues. There haven't been too many recent surges to take advantage of either, but it's not like there's nobody out there that can help your fantasy squad down the stretch.
We are certainly approaching the part of the year where some teams, especially those that are out of contention, will really begin reigning in their young arms. There are sure to be more and more IL stints as teams opt to use that route to give their guys some extra rest, and we will probably also see a little bit more bullpen usage as we head towards the playoffs.
For this reason, it's always a little bit safer to rely on pitchers that are on contending teams. Sometimes that little bit of heightened game importance can make the difference between a five and six-inning start - which can be big in a quality start league, for example. Keep that in mind while I give some suggestions for potential picks up ahead of Week 20 - which runs from August 9 to 15.
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Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (38% Rostered)
This is like the 12th straight week I'm writing up McClanahan - but the beat must go on! He now has a 15.8% SwStr%, a 31.9% CSW%, a 28% K%, and a 48.5% GB% on the year. You know how many pitchers have a strikeout rate above 28% and a ground-ball rate above 47%? Only seven. The other names: Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Lance McCullers Jr., Corbin Burnes, Clayton Kershaw, and Sonny Gray. You won't be able to get your hands on any of those other names without paying a significant price - and you can have McClanahan for free in more than half of the world's fantasy baseball leagues. Go get him!
Jesus Luzardo, Miami Marlins (45% Rostered)
This is a recommendation coming from only one start, thereby making it probably a bad one. We know the upside this kid was alleged to have before the last couple years, and I don't think we should be willing to give up on that so quickly.
Luzardo came out hot in his debut with the Marlins. He posted an elite 19% swinging-strike rate and generated a 61.5% ground-ball rate. He still gave up three earned runs, but that shouldn't continue to be the case if he's getting whiffs and ground-balls at that rate. There is only so much we can learn from one start, but it was enough to perk my ears up. I'd be looking to add Luzardo in leagues where his previous manager was fed up enough to drop him.
Kyle Muller, Atlanta Braves (24% Rostered)
Muller has posted an elite swinging-strike rate in his short time in the bigs with a mark above 13%. He has also managed hard contact with a barrel rate under 6% and a weak contact number around 60%. It's been an encouraging start without a ton of box score results.
I think he will really get it going down the stretch, and the Braves certainly will need to rely on him after not adding to their pitching staff at the trade deadline. It's possible that Muller will be relegated to a bullpen role once Ian Anderson (shoulder) returns, but I imagine he pitches well enough to beat out Drew Smyly as the Braves try to make a push for the wild card.
He has looked great this year, with his only issue being a bit of a high walk rate. He's navigated around that fine for now, and if he can improve on that he could start posting some really elite starts.
Pickups for Deeper Leagues
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals (15% Rostered)
Man, I was hoping for better from Gray in his Nationals debut. He threw just 71 pitches and had a crazy low 7% SwStr% in that start. This was after posting rates of 19.5% and 22.8% in his first two goes at it. I'm more than willing to continue to fire him up because he has serious swing-and-miss stuff. The pitch count is more concerning. There just isn't that much you can do if your team doesn't allow you to throw 80+ pitches. I think the Nats are more willing to let him extend that as compared to the Dodgers, so I really do like the trade for his short-term fantasy prospects.
He is probably rostered in your keeper/dynasty league, but I think he could even help a team in re-draft if he can push that pitch count towards 90. I don't expect another single-digit SwStr% this year so the strikeouts should be there despite what we saw last week.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals (30% Rostered)
This is the least exciting name on the list, but Ross continues to get it done. Since May 20, when he gave up eight earned runs, he has posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an elite 4.7 K/BB ratio. Those are tough numbers to put up for any stretch, and he's done it over 63.2 innings now.
He is not super exciting since we know where his ceiling lies, but if you really need an arm to get you some innings, Ross is a fine option.
Touki Toussaint, Atlanta Braves (37% Rostered)
Toussaint has seen less exciting results since his first two great starts of the year, but the fact is that this guy is throwing strikes this year. He has a 48.5% zone rate, up a ton from his career numbers. That gets you excited about the possibilities that his elite stuff brings. So far it's been hit hard because he's catching a bit too much of the strike zone, but I think we're going to see a really nice strikeout-to-walk ratio from him moving forward and that's something to be excited about. I wouldn't be putting a ton of faith in him, but he may be worth a speculative add in deep leagues.
Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox (13% Rostered)
In three July starts, Houck posted swinging-strike rates of 8.2%, 11.5%, and then 17.3%. That last mark is really impressive and it came with an impressive 51% zone rate. He has great stuff. He has only exceeded 80 pitches once, which is a concern, but his innings are low for the year so I think the Red Sox could go ahead and take the leash off when he's really rolling in starts and they need to win games.
For the year he has a 13% SwStr% and a nice 48% GB% - a great tandem. He may be best used as a streaming option, but his ceiling is undeniable.
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