Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 24

3 years ago by Jon Anderson

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Four weeks to go! That means it's playoff time, and every day moving forward takes on added impact.

If you're still in the running right now, chances are you have a pretty strong pitching staff. I would not recommend chasing some of the below names unless you're actually short on an arm or two. You don't want to mess up a really strong pitching week in the playoffs by taking on a really bad outing from a streamer-quality pitcher. Most of the names below do absolutely come with some risk, so be prudential about your decisions here.

That said, there are still some really nice options that are being neglected in some fantasy leagues, and that probably has something to do with a lot of fantasy managers checking out as their teams haven't made the playoffs and/or as they ramp up for fantasy football season. Let's talk about some familiar names, as well as some new ones.

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Pickups for Shallow Leagues

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (40% Rostered)

This is the third straight week I'm talking about Skubal, so I might as well put one last update on the month-by-month numbers. Here are Skubal's stats by month.

Month	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
April	6.14	1.68	17.3%	13.5%
May	3.33	1.26	34.2%	10.8%
June	3.14	1.22	30.8%	2.6%
July	5.86	1.19	20.0%	2.9%
August	3.25	1.16	28.7%	5.2%

A really bad start last week against the Athletics (5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 6 K, E BB) really made the August numbers look worse. The A's are a really tough matchup for lefties and overall, Skubal was very good in August. Any time you see a guy flirting with a 30% strikeout rate while keeping walks under 7% you have to take a closer look.

Skubal's far from consistent, and there's some chance that they start limiting him or outright shut him down as they desire to keep their young talent fresh for the future. For now, however, Skubal should be rostered in a lot more leagues. The schedule moving forwarding is also quite appealing, with the Tigers having series against the Pirates, Rays, Brewers, Royals, and Twins in the final weeks.

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals (26% Rostered)

This is another guy that is coming off a really bad start (4 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 K, 3 BB vs. Philadelphia) and was dropped in leagues because of it. It's not right to say that Gray is free of risk and should be started every time he toes the rubber, but I think this 26% number is much too low. He just went through a stretch of four starts posting swinging-striek rates of 24.4%, 13.8%, 14.9%, and 18.7%. Those are crazy elite numbers that not many pitchers in the league can replicate.

The pitch counts have also been up lately, he's thrown more than 80 pitches in his last five outings and exceeded 90 on August 25th. That's very encouraging. It seems like the Nationals want to let him finish out the year and get some valuable Major League experience as they prepare him to be a huge part of their future.

Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox (17% Rostered)

Houck has now made consecutive starts with 90 pitches thrown, and he's thrown 89 or more in three of his last four starts. The pitch count was the biggest thing holding him back, and now that appears to not be a concern any longer.

The really great news about Houck is how good his stuff is. For the year he has a 29% strikeout rate with a strong 6% walk rate. He has also kept the ball in the yard with a 62.7 PA/HR. All three of these numbers are elite and are great signs for the future.

To break it down further, Houck has a strong 14.5% SwStr% on his slider and an elite 17.2% mark in his sinker. The four-seamer is his most commonly thrown pitch, and it has struggled a little bit with a high 14.3% barrel rate against. That pitch also has a 45% ground-ball rate, which makes the high barrel rate seem unsustainably high. I expect some really good stuff from Houck moving forward.

Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers (26% Rostered)

The lefty returned from a long IL stint and threw four innings (71 pitches) on August 29th. He faced the Blue Jays and unsurprisingly gave up two homers, which is just what the Blue Jays do. Otherwise, it was a very encouraging start. He posted a great 14% swinging-strike rate and a 31% CSW%.

By now, you know how risky of a proposition Matt Boyd can be. He was one of the worst pitchers in the league at giving up homers last year, but for what it's worth he's been better at that this year, giving up just 0.96 HR/9 over 74.2 innings (that number was 2.24 last year).

Boyd has been posting strong strikeout-to-walk ratios for the last several years, which makes him worthy of consideration. We've also already mentioned the Tigers positive schedule to finish out the year, so you should think about adding Boyd here if you're short on pitchers.

Pickups for Deeper Leagues

Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies (27% Rostered)

One of the strangest things about the 2021 season was Ranger Suarez going from a closer to a starter overnight. He's now been in the rotation for a month and he's thrown 95 and 99 pitches in his last two outings. For the month of August, he posted a 2.02 ERA ERA in 26.2 innings. That number is weakened by the bad 1.31 WHIP and 1.8 KB/B ratio (23 strikeouts to 13 walks). The bad underlying numbers are why he's featured here in the deeper leagues option, but the fact that he was previously a closer shows that he has quite a talented arm and therefore has some ceiling here.

This is a guy I wouldn't want to risk anything on if I don't have to, but if you really need an option and the above options aren't available, you can give Suarez a look.

Carlos Hernandez, Kansas City Royals (24% Rostered)

Hernandez has come out of nowhere this year to post a 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP (numbers current as of September 3rd). He's been especially good recently, posting a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with a 36:13 K:BB ratio since the all-star break. Over the last three weeks of the season, the Royals have series against the Mariners, the Indians (twice), and the Tigers. That's good news for any starter, and Hernandez should benefit from it.

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