RADIO
Welcome to Week 18. Once again, there's a rookie sensation to discuss along with a former CY Young winner and another impressive rookie are on the plate.
If you've been following along with this series all season, you know the drill. If not, this article is to help you uncover starting pitcher options that may have been overlooked in your league or dropped after a poor start. As always, included are options for both shallow and deeper leagues. I also add my list of pitchers discussed previously at the end of the article with ownership levels to boot. Make sure to check them out, and grab any that are still out there.
Don’t forget to check out our Starting Pitcher Matchups & Streaming Tool for expert guidance during the week too, including what pitchers to start/sit for seasonal and DFS leagues. Let’s get to it.
Editor’s Note: To read about even more waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.
Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Shallow Leagues
Luis Severino (NYY, SP)
OWNED IN: 24% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in all leagues
Just when you thought all the rookies who will have an impact in 2015 had been called up, the Yankees explained why they refused to make a deadline trade for pitching by calling up Luis Severino. Severino was the #1 prospect in the Yankees organization and has been spectacular at every stop in the minors. His latest outing at Triple-AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (6 IP, H, 10 Ks) was enough to convince the front office he's ready for the show.
What separates Severino from the rest of the rookie class is the lack of an impeding innings limit. Unlike rookie sensations Lance McCullers and Carlos Martinez, the Yankees have stated the plan is for Severino to be available for the stretch run.
Good News for Fantasy Owners
Severino features a heavy fastball/changeup and mixes in a slider, with the heater averaging 95 MPH. He's got solid control of each pitch and can throw them for a strike in any count. We don't have enough data to give a full analysis on Severino, but based on the limited material it's safe to say he can make a huge impact for fantasy leagues (and the Yankees).
What's shocking is he's only 24% owned to this point. Perhaps it's the theory that rookie hitters are sexier adds, but I have no problem giving Severino a spin. His first start comes at home vs the Red Sox and if he excels, get ready for that ownership to soar. Grab a share before the tide does.
Mike Leake (SFG, SP)
OWNED IN: 61% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in all leagues
But Max, Mike Leake is owned in all my leagues! Yes, that's a real possibility with his 61% ownership, but it was just 39% last week (22% jump!) I feel the need to include him here after the CIN-SFG trade that took Leake to the west coast.
Leake had an atrocious May (6.75 ERA) that led to a number of fantasy owners jumping off the tracks, but it's time we hop back on this gravy train. Leake has been spectacular in July (1.25 ERA) and just moved to a park that is 28th in runs per game. Not to mention he's currently working on four straight starts with no more than one run or two walks allowed in any of those outings (0.60 ERA, 30.0 IP).
The defense behind him remains strong (both CIN and SFG are top 10 in team defense) but Leake is sure happy to be out of Cincinnati. In 65.2 IP at Great American Ball Park, Leake has a 4.93 ERA. Everywhere else, 2.28 ERA.
Add in the fact that Leake moves to a contender with meaningful games ahead and you have a great backend SP for any fantasy rotation. He's not going to dominate (5.93 K/9, 6.5 SwStk%) but he should provide serviceable numbers now that he doesn't pitch in a sand box. His first start as a Giant comes today at Texas. The best news for fantasy owners would be a poor outing for Leake today as you hope ownership declines. As of this publication he's gone six innings of two-run ball, his only mistake being a Josh Hamilton HR. Next up will be a visit to Wrigley vs the Cubs, a team he limited to one run over eight innings just two weeks ago. Add away.
R.A. Dickey (TOR, SP)
OWNED IN: 26% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12 + leagues / Stream Worthy
With all the noise Toronto made this trade deadline, it's only fitting we find a way to include a Blue Jay. Luckily for us, R.A. Dickey has given us plenty of reasons to discuss his recent spurt.
Dickey has been fantastic in his last four starts, accumulating a 1.53/0.85 line and 20/5 K/BB ratio over 29.1 IP (4 GS). That doesn't include his strong outing today vs Kansas City (7 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K). The knuckleball (90.21%) continues to be his best friend while he's throwing the fourseam and sinker occasionally.
90.21% Chance He's Throwing a Knuckleball
So what changed with Dickey, and is it sustainable? Let's take a look.
R.A. Dickey Before and After July 4th (FanGraphs)
The most noticeable improvements are the ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 rates. The HR/9 and BB/9 are well below his historical numbers (1.11 and 2.84, respectively). It should be noted that these numbers came against rather tame offenses (@ CHW, TB, @ OAK, PHI). None of those teams are in the top half of MLB for HR or OBP.
I'm willing to give Dickey a pass on the favorable opponents and buy his recent spurt of production. He will regress here on out, but a 3.40 ERA sounds reasonable. He's backed by the best offense in baseball and should have the added motivation of being apart of a pennant race. His next start comes at NYY, which I would pass for streaming consideration. He owns a 5.14 ERA on the road and the Yankees have 140 HR (2nd). You may not have the luxury to wait on Dickey in deeper leagues, so 12+ team leagues should make the move now.
Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Deeper Leagues
Aaron Brooks (OAK, SP)
OWNED IN: 1% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in 14-team leagues / Stream Worthy
Gotta love the year of the rookie. Aaron Brooks made his starting debut at home vs Cleveland and was excellent, spinning 7.1 innings of one run ball with a 5/0 K/BB ratio. Yes, it was the Indians (23rd in runs last seven days) but he still displayed the poise of a veteran in his first start. After the game A's coach Bob Melvin said Brook earned his right to stay in the rotation.
Here's a quick rundown on Brooks: Traded to Oakland in the Ben Zobrist deal, he features a fourseam (93 mph) and change (84 mph) while mixing in a sinker (92 mph) and slider (86 mph), per Brooks Baseball. He has an over the top delivery that allows for some serious bite on the changeup and he located it well vs Cleveland. He left a few too many fastballs over the plate that better hitting teams will take advantage of, but he's got the makeup to become a solid pitcher for the A's.
He's lined up to face the Astros at home next, a team that doesn't make mistakes on fastballs (1st in HR) but they also are suspect to chase Brooks' changeups out of the zone (2nd in Ks). In shallow leagues there's likely better options but if you're starving for pitching in AL-Only setups, Brooks is a decent add considering he's earned a rotation spot here on out.
Other Pitchers Previously Highlighted to Consider
Owners who paid attention last week and grabbed Walker were rewarded with a one-hitter vs Minnesota. Only one player dropped below 10% (Yovani Gallardo) and I wouldn't be rushing out to grab him based on his recent performances.
In Order of Ownership %
Noah Syndergaard (NYM, SP / 80% ; up 7%)
Mike Leake (CIN, SP / 61% ; up 22%)
Jaime Garcia (DL) (STL, SP / 60% ; up 9%)
Wei-Yin Chen (BAL, SP / 58% ; down 2%)
Taijuan Walker (SEA, SP / 53% ; down 5%)
Yordano Ventura (KC, SP / 55% ; up 2%)
Yovani Gallardo (TEX, SP / 50% ; down 13%)
Chris Tillman (BAL, SP / 49%)
Ervin Santana (MIN, SP / 49%)
Taylor Jungmann (MIL, SP / 39% ; up 4%)
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP / 31% ; down 2%)
Jesse Chavez (OAK, SP / 30% ; down 6%)
Erasmo Ramirez (TB, SP / 30%)
Mike Montgomery (SEA, SP / 28% ; down 9%)
Aaron Nola (PHI, SP / 27%)
Kyle Hendricks (CHC, SP / 26% ; no change)
Brett Anderson (LAD, SP / 19% ; down 2%)
Tom Koehler (MIA, SP / 18%)
Jonathan Niese (NYM, SP / 13% ; down 2%)
Matt Wisler (ATL, SP / 12% ; up 3%)
Jake Peavy (SF, SP / 7% ; no change)
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