Statcast Hitter Analysis - Launch Angle Risers/Fallers (Week 24)

It's impossible to resist making a pun about launch angle leaders being real "risers" so let's get that out of the way first. Now, let's recognize that launch angle can, but does not always, be an indicator of power production. For this reason, we'll need to look at the names which stand out on the leaderboard a little closer to figure out what's going on.

Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.

This week, we revisit launch angle one final time to see whose power may indeed be on the rise in the final month of the season. In case you're wondering, yes, Eric Hosmer is still dead last on this list.

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of Sep. 9, 2018 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 PA since Aug. 1:

Greg Bird (1B, NYY)

22.2° average launch angle since Aug. 1

Hold up. Bird was named in this very series last week as we commiserated over his lowly 84.8 MPH exit velocity and complete lack of production. Does this mean he's squaring up the ball and just needs to drive it a little harder? Bird has an inflated 57.4% fly ball rate over the past month and a week, but most of those have been of the harmless variety. There is a very small subsection of batted balls that would approach Barrel status, as shown below. Bird seems to be pressing or just swinging for the fences too frequently. Until he settles down, he'll be an easy out more often than not.

C.J. Cron (1B, TB) 

20.8° average launch angle since Aug. 1

Cron is up to 26 HR this year, easily marking his career high. While he wasn't quite this year's Logan Morrison, he's been a serviceable streamer at times for power purposes. Cron has mostly lived in the cleanup spot for a suddenly high-powered offense, offering the type of power threat that Jake Bauers hasn't become yet (see below). Despite a poor 0.1 BB/K  and 22 K over his last 22 games, he's delivered four HR and six doubles. If he can maintain his health and some sense of consistency, Cron could carry on his late-age breakout.

Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) 

20.7° average launch angle since Aug. 1

It's been a forgettable season for the 31-year-old vet, who's posting a career-low .229 average. He's finishing strong, however, with five HR, 20 RBI, and 17 R in his last 33 games. On top of a marked improvement in plate discipline, Kipnis' fly ball rate has jumped to 48.4% in that span. It's unclear what's prompting this renaissance, but Kipnis looks like a player to target on waivers everywhere that utilizes a MI spot, as he's just 37% owned at the moment.

David Dahl (OF, COL)

19.4° average launch angle since Aug. 1

Dahl has homered twice since September began, but he's also ridden the bench on three occasions. Therein lies the problem with Dahl from a fantasy perspective. Even though he has registered 10 XBH in his last 80 AB, with a solid 28.3% LD% and rising launch angle, Dahl can't be considered as more than an OF3 consideration in leagues with daily lineup changes.

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

Wil Myers (1B/3B, SD)

5.6° average launch angle since Aug. 1

Since August began, Myers has just one home run and five doubles. His GB/FB has spiked to nearly 3.00 in that time and his hard hit rate is declining. When he was fresh off the DL, it was justifiable to see him struggle for a bit, but this slump has extended for three weeks now. Myers hasn't been right all season with the bat and isn't swiping bags to offset the lack of power either.

Kendrys Morales (1B, TOR) 

6.2° average launch angle since Aug. 1

Morales was the talk of the town for a seven-game homer-filled stretch in late August but has been quiet as a mouse ever since. All told, it's been a successful stretch for Morales, who has batted .370 with a 6.7% Hard% on fly balls over the past month-plus. The lower launch angle is seemingly a result of him selling out for power, as he's posted a 53.6% ground ball rate in his previous 102 at-bats for a .209 average, including seven double plays. Morales may not have another power surge like that again, but it won't be for lack of trying.

Christian Yelich (OF, MIL)

6.5° average launch angle since Aug. 1

Yelich has historically been a ground ball hitter with enough pop that when he gets a hold of one he can drive it out and float around the 20-HR mark. After last year, we heard about his escalating fly ball rate that, when combined with a much more agreeable home park in Milwaukee, would promise to bring bigger power numbers. Yet his fly ball rate is back down to 21.3%, four points lower than last year, and his launch angle is one of the lowest among regular outfielders in the league and somehow he's already set a career-high in homers and is approaching 30 HR for the first time in his career. Luck? An elevated HR/FB rate that is going to crash next year? While 33% is certainly too high to sustain, Yelich has proven he doesn't need to change his swing or deliver a higher average launch angle in order to resemble a slugger in order to hit for power. Jeff Sullivan on Fangraphs went into detail about Yelich's new approach on first pitch swings that could be the key to his success. Let's see if pitchers adjust as Yelich stops being labeled a patient hitter.

Jake Bauers (1B/OF, TB)

7.6° average launch angle since Aug. 1

Ending with another Tampa first baseman, this time on a down note. Bauers' promising rookie campaign has slowed down with just one homer and a .097 average over the past 30 games. A 52.6% GB% is not good for someone lacking in superior speed, much less a corner infielder. At this point, launch angle is the least of his concerns - Bauers needs to just start making more contact.

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