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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. As I mentioned last week, I am going to start taking a look into pitchers' relative success of certain pitches using Statcast's pitch movement tab. I will start with curveballs for this week.
Statcast's pitch movement data breaks out each pitch by vertical and horizontal movement in inches compared to average movement. For vertical movement, positive numbers refer to relative rise while negative numbers refer to relative drop. For horizontal movement, positive numbers refer to relative break while negative numbers refer to relative lack of break.
Rather than choose studs and duds for these specific articles, I will pick one pitcher from each of the four quadrants and analyze how their particular movement has helped or hurt them this season. Pitchers were only considered if they have thrown the pitch at least 100 times. Pitchers' secondary pitches are key to gaining strikeouts, so taking a look at them can shed light onto their overall fantasy performance. As I have mentioned in previous articles, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs, but will choose to analyze more under-the-radar or less-obvious players to give readers the most useful insight. Let's find out whose curveballs have the most successful movement!
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Curveball: Strong Drop and Break
All stats current as of Sunday, May 30.
Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds
Vertical Drop: 4.2 inches (8%) greater than average
Horizontal Break: 4.8 inches (48%) greater than average
This first pitcher has always had a good curveball, but has relied on it more over the past several seasons and has also seen a big jump in strikeout rate. Sonny Gray is off to another solid start this season, going 1-3 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 28.4% strikeout rate. His pitch arsenal has actually been led by his curveball this season at 28.8% usage, and for good reason. Let's take a closer look at how Gray's curveball has helped him find success so far.
Gray's curveball is deceptive thanks to its 87th-percentile spin rate (2,864 revolutions per minute) and its 15.4 inches of horizontal break, which is 48% more than league average. He is not an overpowering pitcher, but mixes his four main pitches of curve, sinker, four-seam fastball, and slider well. His curveball pairs very well with his slider because both pitches break quite a lot and spin in similar directions. However, the two pitches have different velocities and break movement, making it very difficult for hitters to discern which pitch they are facing.
Gray has been a fantasy force for the last several seasons, although he never seems to be talked about as much as some other big names. He has been a strikeout machine over the past three seasons, thanks in part to his curveball. His 14.1% swinging-strike rate with the pitch is solid, especially considering that it is his primary pitch as a starter. He could probably be mentioned in future articles like this for the movement on his other pitches, indicating just how solid of a pitcher he is.
Curveball: Strong Drop
All stats current as of Sunday, May 30.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Vertical Drop: 10.2 inches (19%) greater than average
Horizontal Break: -1.9 inches (-24%) less than average
Our second pitcher has been known in dynasty leagues for some time but has not lived up to expectations until this season. Dylan Cease has finally gotten off to the start fantasy managers had hoped for, going 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an impressive 30.3% strikeout rate. His roller-coaster curveball has a ton of vertical drop, but how has he used it to find his success so far, if at all?
The interesting thing with Cease to this point is that he really hasn't relied on his curveball, only throwing it 11.2% of the time. In fact, he has mostly relied only on two pitches: his fastball (49.3% usage) and his slider (30.6% usage). Cease does have a great fastball at 96 MPH with a lot of movement and his slider is insane with a 21.2% swinging-strike rate, but his curveball is a solid pitch as well. Its 2,828 revolutions per minute spin rate is in the 86th percent of baseball, and while he only has an 8.7% swinging-strike rate with the pitch, he has tended to throw the pitch out of the strike zone, which could help explain the low rate.
Data from baseballsavant.com
Cease has really only had to rely on his fastball and slider so far this season, but I wonder if he will be able to continue to do that successfully as a starter once hitters start to see more of him. His curveball seems like a viable third-pitch option if he can work on improving its location. Improved location in general would be good for Cease, as his 11.9% walk rate is a liability. It will be interesting to see how Cease fares as the season progresses and whether he will start to incorporate his curveball more. If he can bring that third weapon into the mix, I think he can be a legitimate fantasy asset for the rest of this season.
Curveball: Strong Break
All stats current as of Sunday, May 30.
Justin Dunn, Seattle Mariners
Vertical Drop: 10.0 inches (-19%) less than average
Horizontal Break: 7.1 inches (73%) greater than average
This pitcher is currently rostered in just nine percent of leagues, but has done quite well to this point. Justin Dunn has a 1-2 record with a 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 23.4% strikeout rate through nine starts. His main secondary pitch is his curveball, which stays relatively flat but has a ton of horizontal movement. Is Dunn a potentially overlooked fantasy asset?
A quick overview does show some conflicting signs. Dunn's batted-ball profile isn't stellar, but isn't bad either. His 21.4-degree launch angle isn't great, but he has avoided hard contact slightly above the league average. His 14.1% walk rate also leaves something to be desired, but his respectable 1.19 WHIP indicates that he has done a good job limiting pitches.
Turning to his curveball, Dunn has relied on the pitch pretty frequently, throwing it 33.1% of the time. Like Gray, Dunn's spin direction on his curveball is similar to his slider but the movement and velocity are different, adding an additional deceptive element. Dunn has had more swing-and-miss success with his slider at 15%, but his 11.6% mark on his curveball is still solid.
Dunn is by no means a fantasy stud and has some underlying issues in his advanced metrics, but his success to this point cannot be denied. He throws his fastball often, but has a nice sweeping curveball to offset it and to accompany his slider. The similar spin direction of the two pitches has worked in his favor and I see no reason to take a chance on Dunn in deeper leagues knowing that he is a middle-of-the-rotation or back-end fantasy option.
Curveball: Below-Average Drop and Break
All stats current as of Sunday, May 30.
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays
Vertical Drop: 10.1 inches (-20%) less than average
Horizontal Break: 6.3 inches (-86%) less than average
Our final pitcher is one who has been a fantasy frustration for much of his career, particularly over the last few seasons. Robbie Ray has always had strikeout stuff, but has also struggled with walks and was essentially un-rosterable last season. He has turned things around to this point in 2021, posting a 3.81 ERA, a career-low 1.13 WHIP, and a solid 28% strikeout rate. He doesn't throw his curveball a ton, but when he does it is overall flat compared to the rest of the league. Could the lack of movement on the pitch be a detriment to Ray's newfound success?
Ray has always thrown hard and that applies to all of his pitches. His fastball comes in at 95.2 MPH, his slider is almost like a cutter at 88.6 MPH, and his curveball is almost like a slider at 82.5 MPH. This helps to partially explain the relative lack of movement on the curveball because it is not as slow and looping as other pitchers' curveballs. The pitch has been highly successful in terms of missing bats despite its lack of movement. Ray has achieved an impressive 23.2% swinging-strike rate with the pitch to this point. Part of its success could be because the pitch comes in with a variety of spin directions, which may make it difficult for hitters to hone in on.
Ray's pitch arsenal is truly nasty and his curveball is just one example of that. The ongoing issue with him is that he has always had command issues. While this appears to be fixed so far this season with a career-low 6.1% walk rate, he has gotten hit exceptionally hard, with both his exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the bottom four percent of baseball. However, he has always gotten hit hard throughout his career and his 3.35 SIERA indicates that his batted-ball profile may be ok. Rostering Ray is like walking a tightrope, and I would consider trying to sell-high on him in roto leagues, but think he is worth the roster spot in points leagues.
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