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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. As we near the All-Star break, I thought it made sense to focus on an all-encompassing metric for starting pitchers: wins above replacement (WAR).
WAR is an interesting metric that was developed as an attempt to measure a player's relative value compared to a replacement-level player, or a readily-available player (think free agent). The calculation is rather complicated and is broken down with further explanation here for those who are interested. The gist of the metric is that the higher a player's WAR is, the more valuable a player they are.
I will take a look at two players with an impressive first-half WAR and two with a disappointing WAR to see what may lie ahead of them in the second half. For reference, the highest first-half WAR among qualified starters is Jacob deGrom's 4.8. As I have mentioned in previous articles, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs, so deGrom will not be included in this article. However, I will take a look at some interesting and unexpected names to give readers the most useful insights. Let's take a look at how these pitchers have fared in the first half and decide what we can expect from them in the second half!
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WAR Studs
All stats current as of Sunday, July 4, 2021.
Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox
3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22.1% Strikeout Rate, 3.2 WAR
When I first wrote about Nathan Eovaldi all the way back in Week 4, he had a stellar 2.08 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. Fast forward to Week 15 and he is still pitching well, pretty much in line with his SIERA. His ratios have helped him generate a 3.2 WAR that is third-best among qualifying starters, tied with Carlos Rodon. Last time I came to the conclusion that Eovaldi should continue to find success. He has to this point, but will that continue?
One of the main things that impressed me with Eovaldi previously was his stellar batted-ball profile. Things have regressed a bit in that department; his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are still in the top 66th and 73rd percent of baseball respectively, but they aren't as elite as they were earlier in the season.
This could partly be attributed to Eovaldi's pitch location. He was doing a great job locating all of his pitches earlier in the season, and while some of his pitches are still hitting corners, his four-seam fastball and cutter have gotten too much of the plate. He has incurred the most damage against his four-seamer, which is his primary pitch at 44% usage, so that seems like a likely culprit. However, his 3.83 SIERA still indicates that his batted-ball profile is solid.
It is a bit surprising to me that Eovaldi has such a high WAR. He is always thought of as a viable fantasy option and throws hard, but he has never achieved an elite ERA (career 4.19) or strikeout rate (career 18.8%). In this regard, he may actually be a buy-low candidate. He is not as flashy as some other starters in terms of fantasy, but he has produced solid results and has a batted-ball profile and offense to back it up.
Given that he has mostly hit the point that his SIERA and underlying numbers suggested, I think that Eovaldi will continue to play at this level and be a valuable and potentially underrated fantasy pitcher for the second half of the season.
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
2.14 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 30% Strikeout Rate, 2.7 WAR
I also wrote about our second pitcher in Week 4, suggesting that his success would not be sustainable given his poor batted-ball profile. Well, Trevor Rogers' batted-ball profile looks a lot better now and his overall numbers are still great. The 23-year-old has put together a 7-5 record with a stellar 2.14 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate. Consequently, he has a 2.7 WAR. I expressed my concerns about Rogers earlier in the season; do I have anything to worry about at this point?
My first concern was that Rogers was getting hit way too hard to sustain his other metrics. His batted-ball profile has improved by a great deal since I last voiced that concern; his launch angle is at a respectable 11.8 degrees, his average exit velocity is in the top-20 percent of baseball, and his hard-hit rate is in the 68th percentile. His 2.91 SIERA is still higher than his ERA, but it supports the notion that his batted-ball profile is much improved from what it was.
My second concern was that Rogers was relying too much on his fastball to maintain his high strikeout rate. He still relies primarily on his fastball at 57.1% usage, but it is a good one. His velocity and spin rate on the pitch are both above-average and he manages an impressive 30.5% Whiff rate with the pitch. However, his secondary pitches are really where the missed bats come from. Rogers has kept hitters off-balance with both his changeup and slider. He has achieved an impressive 34% swinging-strike rate with his changeup and 45% with his slider. Rogers has proven me wrong again here by implementing his secondary pitches well, which makes his fastball even more effective.
Rogers has been a fantasy All-Star this season, and almost all of his stats support it. He has improved his batted-ball profile while maintaining a high strikeout rate and has all above-average expected stats. His stats and performance support his high WAR and I am ready to believe in Rogers for the rest of the season.
WAR Duds
All stats current as of Sunday, July 4, 2021.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
3.83 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 18.9% Strikeout Rate, 0.4 WAR
I wrote about this pitcher in Week 7 as one who was garnering a good deal of concern given his slow start to the season. Kyle Hendricks has gotten his numbers to a better spot and now has a decent ERA under 4.00. However, these numbers are still high for him and his 0.4 WAR is the fifth-lowest among qualified pitchers. Should fantasy managers attempt to sell Hendricks while his peripherals look a bit better?
Looking back, Hendricks' issue was that all of his expected stats were not promising. This is still the case. Consequently, both his 4.89 FIP and 4.30 SIERA are higher than his ERA, which is pulling his WAR down. However, Hendricks' batted-ball profile really isn't concerning. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and launch angle are all in line with his career marks. He has also improved his pitch location since the last time I wrote about him and has kept most of his pitches out of the middle of the plate.
The only issue that has still plagued Hendricks has been the number of home runs he has given up. His 18.3% HR/FB rate is a career-high and is much higher than his 11.9% career mark. The weird thing is that Hendricks' batted-ball profile is no different than previous seasons and his pitch location has improved. As such, I actually think there is some more positive regression to come for him in that facet.
Hendricks has performed better lately, but still has one of baseball's lowest WAR for starting pitchers. I do think that his improvements are non-trivial and expect further regression given his HR bad luck. Hendricks is not the most exciting fantasy player due to his lack of strikeouts but is often overlooked. As such, I consider him to be a strong buy-low candidate going into the second half of the season.
Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox
4.48 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 14.1% Strikeout Rate, 0.6 WAR
Our final pitcher is in a similar boat to Hendricks. Dallas Keuchel has never been an overpowering pitcher but has always managed to find success. He has a respectable 6-3 record as well as a 4.48 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. However, his WAR is not that much higher than Hendricks. How does Keuchel's second-half outlook differ from Hendricks', if at all?
Keuchel's expected stats are similar to Hendricks' in that they are all below average. In fact, they are among the lowest in baseball. His 4.67 SIERA also supports his poor expected stats. However, it needs to be noted that Keuchel is a pitch-to-contact style of pitcher and has a fine batted-ball profile. He has managed to keep the ball on the ground with a 4.3-degree launch angle and he has an above-average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Keuchel's strikeout limitations are obvious for fantasy purposes, but his style of pitching is effective for him, so I don't really see any liabilities with rostering him.
Keuchel's expected stats may be poor and are driven by his SIERA, but his batted-ball profile is actually fine. Overall, I would expect Keuchel to have a fine second half for his standards. I'm not sure I would call him a buy-low candidate for fantasy purposes given his lack of strikeouts, but I don't think fantasy managers who roster him should worry.
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