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In this series of articles, I will highlight some tweets of mine that are filled with stats you need to know prior to drafting your fantasy football teams in 2021. I'll explain what these stats mean and how to interpret the information to gain a competitive advantage over your league-mates this season.
This article will highlight the Running Back position, while subsequent articles will focus on Wide Receivers and Tight Ends.
Let's dive right in!
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Will Jonathan Taylor be Featured in the Colts' Offense?
There's this notion that Colts head coach Frank Reich likes to employ a running back by committee (RBBC) approach in his offenses. But as you see in the numbers above, that's just simply not true. In fact, Marlon Mack saw 72.4% of the running back rush attempts in 14 games played in 2019. In comparison, Browns RB Nick Chubb saw just 59% of his team's running back rush attempts last season.
This should be music to the ears of Jonathan Taylor fantasy managers. Mack is coming off an Achilles tear early in the 2020 season, and while there are reports he's close to 100%, he shouldn't take a significant amount of work away from Taylor. Sure, Nyheim Hines is still in the picture as well, but the Colts have a very specific role for him in the offense. In Taylor's last six regular-season games, he averaged 73% of the running back carries, rushing for 123.5 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. Expect Reich and this Colts offense to rely heavily on Jonathan Taylor in his second season. Draft him with confidence as a top-10 running back in 2021.
What to Expect from Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Year Two
It was a tale of two seasons for Edwards-Helaire his rookie season. In Weeks 1-6, he received an average of 23 opportunities (rush attempts + targets) on an average of 66% of the snaps. In his next seven games, he averaged just 13.9 opportunities on an average of 53% of the snaps. This was due in part to the Chiefs bringing in veteran Le'Veon Bell ahead of Week 7, but also due to lingering hip and ankle injuries.
Running backs are most valuable in fantasy football when they're doing a combination of three things. Getting targets, getting carries, and scoring touchdowns. When utilized as the featured back early in his rookie season, Edwards-Helaire had two of those things on lockdown. He just wasn't scoring touchdowns. In fact, he scored just one total touchdown on 138 total opportunities in those first six games.
In Patrick Mahomes' first two seasons as the starting quarterback for the Chiefs, running backs saw an average of 33.5 carries from inside the 10-yard line. Last season, that number decreased to just 22 carries. Naturally, we should expect Edwards-Helaire to see an uptick in both scoring opportunities and touchdowns in 2021 as he becomes more comfortable in the Kansas City offense. He's currently being drafted around RB15, which should be his floor in 2021 given his usage in the passing game. His ceiling is those added touchdowns. Prioritize Edwards-Helaire after the first ten running backs are off the board this season.
Can Zack Moss Take Over as the Lead Back in Buffalo?
I'll start off by saying that Bills Beat Writer for The Athletic, Joe Buscaglia, believes that "if he continues to improve, [Zack Moss] could be a 60 to 70 percent snap player in 2021." He only eclipsed a 60% snap share twice his rookie season, but that's likely a result of a turf toe injury he dealt with early in the season.
Moss may not have seen a heavy workload in 2020, but he certainly got the high-value touches over Devin Singletary. In fact, he had 15 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line compared to just eight for Singletary, who played all 16 games last season. The 15 carries were 35.7% of Bills carries inside the 10. In 2019, Frank Gore received 54.5% of carries inside the 10. It's certainly possible Moss gets up to that percentage, and if he does, it could mean an uptick in touchdowns over the four he scored as a rookie.
Oh, and there's a chance Moss might actually be a pretty good running back. Per PlayerProfiler, he had the seventh-highest Juke Rate (which isolates a running back's elusiveness and tackle-breaking power) last season. Derrick Henry, the league's leading rusher, was eighth. There's more upside with Moss heading into his second season than many care to believe.
Conclusion
While there may be concerns with each of the players I highlighted above, the stats tell you there's a lot of hope for each of them in 2021. Due to their upside and the perceived situation in their respective offenses, I suggest targeting Taylor (RB7), Edwards-Helaire (RB14), and Moss (RB36) at their current ADPs in your upcoming fantasy football drafts.
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